JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!
- Thread starter KVB
- Start date
Pay attention, Gold.
I don't care about the parity I'm seeking ingame volatility. In fact, in a general sense, that parity helps me.
That Philly move gives the Trader a lot of confidence in the Lab.
There is still work to do.
theriver55
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2022
- Messages
- 3,986
^ You seem to be one of the sharper players here KVB.
Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 84,008
Great work with Philly
Here's the Small Account trades from last night, which were unwise and forced, to today, when the Lab is all caught up and in action..
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It's worth noting the unit size here today is more than yesterday, which were just 100 contract buys. Still a Small Account, with MLB just plain being different risk for now than something like NCAAB.
But we like what we see in the moneyline department.
I did have Philly +1.5 up but again, that's a buy and hold I did not take. Philly won the game so the Trader sees money left on the table as the Lab liked the Philly comeback to be complete,with a vague notion of them winning by two.
[td] 294.55 |
It's worth noting the unit size here today is more than yesterday, which were just 100 contract buys. Still a Small Account, with MLB just plain being different risk for now than something like NCAAB.
But we like what we see in the moneyline department.
I did have Philly +1.5 up but again, that's a buy and hold I did not take. Philly won the game so the Trader sees money left on the table as the Lab liked the Philly comeback to be complete,with a vague notion of them winning by two.
That timing was pretty good. If I had seen it sooner, I might have been in a little sooner, then again there really wasn't much time to see it until the bottom of the 8th, in sense.
A real confidence booster for sure.
If I were just putting 100 contracts in for each one, and not a more consistent risk, this is what it would look like, the per 100 is per 100 contracts. I'd be up $17.00 on that $61.00 win...
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I show this because this is something that can be done with smaller account. An account can grow if you are patient.
But this way of steady contracts isn't the same as risking the same each play, or very close to the same.
It can be a fine balance, but I think a higher win rate can help more than relying on a big win to cover losses even if that's how it works sometimes.
I may use partial positions once MLB is fully running as some of buys will be very cheap, and perhaps not worth the full unit given the return. That could be a downfall, I suppose it will be decided when the probabilites at the time are determined.
Patience is key here, there is a lot of MLB each day.
Everything is a work in progress.
[td] 17.00 |
[/td]
I show this because this is something that can be done with smaller account. An account can grow if you are patient.
But this way of steady contracts isn't the same as risking the same each play, or very close to the same.
It can be a fine balance, but I think a higher win rate can help more than relying on a big win to cover losses even if that's how it works sometimes.
I may use partial positions once MLB is fully running as some of buys will be very cheap, and perhaps not worth the full unit given the return. That could be a downfall, I suppose it will be decided when the probabilites at the time are determined.
Patience is key here, there is a lot of MLB each day.
Everything is a work in progress.
Everything is a work in progress, lol.
theriver55
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2022
- Messages
- 3,986
Arizona Michigan is a tough one. I think that line is in a good spot. Arizona +1.5 isn't a bad look. I think MIchigan -2 is too high and I would take Zona there for sure.
There is a lot of info between now and then, including that first game.
Looking towards Uconn in that game, even if just to cover the spread as well.
Hoping the are some tradeable actions in those games. There will be a lot of volume.
The lab feels that if the Cleveland guardians take the lead early, and the lab thinks they will, Dodgers will come back and win, maybe even lay the lumber on em.
I’d like to capitalize on the Cleveland surge, but what if they don’t surge.
What if they surge late?
I’d like to capitalize on the Cleveland surge, but what if they don’t surge.
What if they surge late?
I will probably be taking a lot less pregame positions with daily baseball.
I think seeking value on those moves is the best way to approach it.
Might take quite a move to get the Dodgers cheap, and the Dodgers might come back right away.
These things work against the dodger trade.
I think seeking value on those moves is the best way to approach it.
Might take quite a move to get the Dodgers cheap, and the Dodgers might come back right away.
These things work against the dodger trade.
I'm back, but if I was still out, which I thouight I might be, I was only permitted to buy if Cle got up 2-0 in the top of 1st, or 2nd.
Something like that, lol.
But that is not going to happen. It might not be tradeable today, we'll see.
Leftover night, I'm gonna make some tacos out of some pork chops.
This was during NCAAB as that was high paced and well.
It might be a little different in baseball if the trade is simple, if it involves too much, then no can do.
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