JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I could get out of everthing and be up over 3 units.

That's that eventual regular daily goal.

But I feel like being a little greedy here, once again because we haven't really scaled this up yet. I keep getting this feeling I can risk it because it's not sick ass crazy amounts, like it was during hte holidays, nfl playoffs, and will be during march madness.

This feeling of smaller amounts not mattering is a real problem for me. Just talked to my wife abut that from earlier.

And here I go again feeling it again.

Hopefully it doesn't cost me.

What are your current Kansas positions?

 

[KVB]

What are your current Kansas positions?

Top of the chart.

We are fukkin rolling here...

ssue	Bought	Sold	% Profit	Per $100
Kansas ml	0.43	0
Kans +1.5	0.46	0
Kans+4.5	0.55	0

Original posts here...

Kansas ML @ .43 cents
Kansas +1.5 @ .46 cents

Picked up Kansas +4.5 @ .55 cents

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Top of the chart.

We are fukkin rolling here...

ssue	Bought	Sold	% Profit	Per $100
Kansas ml	0.43	0
Kans +1.5	0.46	0
Kans+4.5	0.55	0

Original posts here...

Oh shit, I missed it up there at the top.

 

[KVB]

While it says +5.58 units, truth is there was a little less on the tennis and so it's a little closer to +5.15 units.

Still, for a day of trading, not bad. It's what we want to see.

Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 Kansas ml 0.43 1 1.33 132.56 Kans +1.5 0.46 1 1.17 117.39 Kans+4.5 0.55 1 0.82 81.82 Parks 0.28 0.59 1.11 110.71 Bartun 0.47 1 1.13 112.77 Bondar 0.45 0.19 -0.58 -57.78 L'ville+2.5 0.405 0.22 -0.46 -45.68 l'ville ml 0.08 0.165 1.06 106.25 Total [td] 558.04​

​

[/td]

This day really started last night as those Kansas buys were done then, nearly commission free. They expire at a dollar, no commission there. That, my friends, is the big difference.

Good day in the lab, good day on the trading desk.

 

[KVB]

Ok, I want to show something here. Stick with me, I think it'll be worth it. This probably deserves a thread.

This Houston/Kansas game had a lot of volume. As I showed in the game thread, my Kansas moneyline of .43 cents is equal to a +133 moneyline.

Now, I put that order in the night before, picking the number I wanted to get by offering to sell the opposite at a price different than the market price. I decided, last night, that I liked +133 at minimum, on this game, and the little commission means a limit order is in due, lol. That, to me, meant some EV and the poor guy who took my trade ends up with -EV, as far as I see it.

I felt Houston could get bought up and so I was prepared to lose ground to the market, Circa, Pinny, etc were offering +105 this morning. Kansas got hit. I was already up.

But eventually, as expected, the Houston money came. Did I beat the closer? Well, Circa dealt a No vig line -/+ 133.16 while Pinny wasn't far off of -/+133, DK at 133.6, etc.

The night before, I chose +133 as my line. While the markets were offering +125 at the close, so I beat it, the closing no vig line is the same as my line.

Now, watch the short part at 45:15 in the video below. I also talk about it at the end of Knowing Your Markets at 32:45, also linked below.

Sharp.

 

[jjgold]

KVB get a Cadillac

 

[KVB]

KVB get a Cadillac

Scroll up one and read the post above your's when it hits.

 

[jjgold]

KVB your big time
I wonder how many sharps are at Kalshi?

 

[KVB]

KVB your big time
I wonder how many sharps are at Kalshi?

I know there are some sharper groups trading on the exchanges. I see them, and some I expect to see a battle with, and do. That's trading.

I also think there is some of the API usage out there and I can see those fukkers too. I'll put on order in to be on the top of the book when there's a spread. I'll make that side 1 cent sweeter for a potential taker.

Instantly, I might see a 1 contract hit the order book at 1 cent more than mine. It's like they're keeping tabs on the levels without having to risk. Given the low fees of making a market, or even without, that 1 contract is meaningless no matter how many they lose while keeping tabs.

That's automated shit, no doubt about it.

 

[KVB]

Miami(OH) in action tonight.

I keep menitioning, I have hundreds of contracts for MIA(OH) to go undefeated in the regular season, bought Jan31st and Feb1st, at .20 cents. Current spread is Buy 46/Sell 41.

The position has more than doubled.

There are 4 games left, the schedule is weak. Tonights game against E. Mich should be a win. I'm not looking to sell back any equity here, at least not initially.

This is the only game against E Mich this season. For the remaining 3 games MIA(OH) won the first game this season by double digits.

Three of the last four games are on the road, including tonight and Friday. Two of these last four games are on a Friday.

Game is 2nd in the rotation today and one of three games at 6:30 eastern...the early tips.

All I can say is...

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

The sharks might be friendly KVB.

Maybe they just want a belly rub.

 

[jjgold]

Us API guys get the numbers 1st

 

[Archie]

any good state of the union props?

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

any good state of the union props?

Good question. When is that Archie?

 

[KVB]

Us API guys get the numbers 1st

But I get the better numbers when I get the numbers I want.

Also have enough LIVE EV that I can play in those waters manually, for now.

 

[KVB]

any good state of the union props?

Not going trade Mentions or any of that shit.

I've done some economic and political trades though.

"It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it."

--KVB

I trade both what they bring, and in this thread mostly how they bring it. I just need to sometimes clarify to the trading desk which is which when actively trading.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

"It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it."

--KVB

 

[KVB]

View attachment 86615

 

[KVB]

Picked up Marquette/G’town UNDER 151.5 @ .53 cents.

I have some room to dollar cost average down here, if they start fast.

 

[KVB]

Picked up Marquette/G’town UNDER 151.5 @ .53 cents.

I have some room to dollar cost average down here, if they start fast.

This has been averaged down to Marquette/G’town UNDER 151.5 @ .52 cents.

Just a penny, lol.

They literally scored in the first 4 seconds and my limit hit.

Full position, tiny commission, let's fuikkn go!