JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

Mets and Seattle top 5

 

[jjgold]

Tunnel vision is not good. Anything in life

 

[KVB]

Tunnel vision is not good. Anything in life

Can't spread thin when trading, either.

Don't just trade for the hell of it. There has to be a reason. There are boxes to check.

My issue is trying to make up for the choices out here with the second strikes.

They should be two 1/2 strikes for the most part, or just one strike and be patient.

The lesser unit size still plays a factor there too.

 

[pipe]

Can't spread thin when trading, either.

Don't just trade for the hell of it. There has to be a reason. There are boxes to check.

My issue is trying to make up for the choices out here with the second strikes.

They should be two 1/2 strikes for the most part, or just one strike and be patient.

The lesser unit size still plays a factor there too.

How have been making out on there? @KVB

 

[KVB]

Las Vegas ML @ .72 cents

This will expire for 1.00 @ a 38.89% profit.

 

[KVB]

How have been making out on there? @KVB

Here's the Summer Fund with links to the plays.

Today there were 4 trades 2 winners and 2 losers for +.4795 units or +$47.95 per $100 risked.

Once again, a poorly timed double strike cost me.

Had a bias towards that UNDER, thought I got shaken out, so dipped back in and once I was above water on the trades, I got out.

This puts the Summer Fund at -.3989 units this month and back up over +10 units so far to date.

Excellent work in the Lab as a swing toward the UNDER was anticipated and decent work by the Trader today to lock in profit, save the greedy second strike.

Date Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 1-Jun Sea/Dal OVER 162.5 0.38 0 -1.00 -100 . Sea/Dal OVER 162.5 0.12 0 -1.00 -100 . Min/Pho OVER 167.5 0.47 1 1.13 112.77 2-Jun Con/Atl UNDER 160.5 0.41 0.13 -0.68 -68.29 . Con/Atl UNDER 160.5 0.23 0.13 -0.43 -43.48 . Con/Atl UNDER 160.5 0.12 0.265 1.21 120.83 . Las Vegas ML 0.72 1 0.39 38.89 . June Total . . . -39.28 . April . . . 752.81 . May . . . 298.93 . Total [td] 1012.46​

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[/td]

 

[jjgold]

OK, the day is over close the books

 

[lekidecincinnati]

what kind of fees kalshi have, there must be something about the site can't be perfect

 

[KVB]

what kind of fees kalshi have, there must be something about the site can't be perfect

Low fees and even lower if you make the market instead of take it.

I talk about fees a lot, and a lot of times I pay no fees to get in, sometimes no fees at all.

Polymarket has a winners tax of 2%, no such thing at Kalshi.

If you are in the extremes of the probabilites and going to market, you might pay a little higher, just like high chalk or giant dogs in the book, but it's almost never what you would in the book.

Especially LIVE trading vs betting.

I offset already small fees earlier with a market that moved my way.

That 1.9% earlier is high for me, and it's really not that high compared to books.

 

[KVB]

OK, the day is over close the books

I'm closing the books but full disclosure I also have open orders in on the Toronto/NY game tomorrow.

I'm in the book as I plan to get some EV there.

 

[KVB]

I have picked up Toronto +9.5 @ .51 cents

WNBA

Filled overnight.

 

[KVB]

I also have open orders in on the Toronto/NY game tomorrow.

I'm in the book as I plan to get some EV there.

Toronto +9.5 @ .51 cents

WNBA

Filled overnight.

I had these orders in last night and late last night Pinny moved from -9 to -10.5 but nowhere else moved. I told my wife, late last night, lol, that I thought I'd get filled and have a good edge here in the morning but the Pinny move is suspicious.

Told her some guy in Asia probably woke up and slammed NY for low limits, or maybe a manipulator, and then this morning Pinny was down to 8.5.

Which is what I thought we would see before they moved to 10.5 last night.

At least I'm dialed into the market here.

That's a good sign.

 

[jjgold]

KBO good time right now to go hiking

 

[KVB]

KBO good time right now to go hiking

Yes, position is filled and now it’s curating.

Probably going to get some sun and then head to the gym.

 

[jjgold]

Excellent

Make sure you do roids It’s the in thing now.

 

[KVB]

Looking at the Knicks across the market.

Here's an instance where you do need watch out for prices and commission.

Was actually looking at that and thinking of picking up Knicks at .36 cents, about +178 on the exchange.

It was .37 at time and I was going limit order but it dropped to .36.

Right now almost a straight sport book fee to go to market. That'll turn .36 cents into .3762 cents with that 4.5% fee.

A bit of a difference there.

Now, if it goes to 1.00 there is no more commission.

But if forced to sell at market, on top of the original 4.5%, can get very expensive.

So it's good to pay attention to the fees.

I almost opened a Knicks position at .36 cents.

 

[jjgold]

I think the Knicks are overmatched time will tell

 

[KVB]

I think the Knicks are overmatched time will tell

I tend to agree.

The Lab thinks the probability of a Knicks push in this first game is pretty high and the Trader is working with what's right in front of him on both spread and ML strikes.

See these two posts:

I was just going to come in here and say, when I look at the markets, the Knicks have a shot here in game 1.

This reminds me a bit like the situation where Allen Iverson dropped 48 points in game 1 of the 2001 NBA Finals against Shaq and Kobe to win game 1.

That game went to overtime.

We run scenarios and that scenario is an available one tonight given my market analysis.

Just something we got up on the whiteboard, thought I'd share.

By the way, Philly and Iverson didn't win another game the series.

 

[KVB]

Tha ASK on the Knicks is back to .37 and people are chipping away at it.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

I might steal KVB’s next next play.

I’m not even talking about betting it either. I’m talking about straight up stealing it.