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Hedging a parlay, stupid thing to do?

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hazliam

hazliam

Joined
Dec 16, 2021
Messages
667
Say you have a 6 team parlay with a stagger start. The first 5 teams won. Now I hear a lot of people would hedge the bet on the 6th game.

Why?!?! Why not just go with a 5 team parlay and not place the 6th team? Why pay juice on both side?

or better yet, stagger the whole bet and do $10 first bet, win place $20, win place $40. This would actually earn a lot more reward points and rollover action than a straight up parlay.

The only time parlay make sense is correlated bets and bypassing max bet limits.

Or do you think I am off base?
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
51,848
It differs for every sports bettor

1. The amount of money to be won or lost that can be locked in by hedging vs letting it ride, may be be more important to some compared to others

2. Before the decision is made to hedge or not to hedge, the bettor must ask themself which outcome will I be more upset with:

A. If I hedge & guarantee a profit, but the last wager ends up hitting and the original parlay would have won a lot more

B. If i do not hedge, the final wager loses, and I'm left with $0

The odds are the final game loses far more often than they hit
 

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
9,071
Wagerallspirts pretty much covered it.


I bet a lot on a game so I hardly ever parlay. Parlays can be fun but you are pretty much betting them due to a low bankroll hoping to hit a big score. Which you know most likely will lose. So why not hedge if given the opportunity.


I still think it’s best to bet 11/10 a single game if low bankroll. You have a better chance of making money.


Let’s say you keep parlaying 6 teams and most weeks you hit 4 out of 6, if individual bets even for 10 bucks you are winning each week.

Parlaying you are losing every week

So hedge it.

If it’s it’s a larger parlay bet then hedge for sure to make a profit.

Then again, I always say it’s your money, do what you want

Lol
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
41,892
I rarely play parlays. Sometimes I get a crazy notion and put one down. Never more than 3 teamers. When the opportunity does arise to hedge that last game, I always take it.

Why? Because parlays are inherently losing plays and if I have one in hand, I realize the odds are usually against you so take the money and run.
 

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
10,916
I rarely play parlays. Sometimes I get a crazy notion and put one down. Never more than 3 teamers. When the opportunity does arise to hedge that last game, I always take it.

Why? Because parlays are inherently losing plays and if I have one in hand, I realize the odds are usually against you so take the money and run.
Honestly something that’s not done enough is throwing a chalky favorite on top of a standard -110 play

Like you could have two single bets and throw like Ohio State -1200 on each for two 2-teamers.

There’s that off chance Ohio State loses, but going 1-1 nets you a profit.

I think stuff like that is underutilized. You can get a lot of extra value that way
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
41,892
We're in a cab in Vegas years ago (pre-Uber) and the cab driver is a talker. He explains he's hit 7 out of 8 plays on his parlay. He's looking at ~$30k payout if he hits the last play the next day. We actually got him to show us the ticket. He's all worked up because he's trying to find $15k to hedge. He wasn't asking us for money. He's just pumped up. He's talking about what he was going to do with the money... move his family to a better place, get his kids and wife some clothes, stuff like that.

He was pumped up but he's having trouble coming up with enough cash. I don't know what the outcome was for the cab driver but the parlay would have lost.... I always hoped he found the $ to hedge. It sounded life changing for him.

Stormtrooper mentioned... It's all about the journey. This was probably the one time this guy had a chance to win big.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
41,892
Honestly something that’s not done enough is throwing a chalky favorite on top of a standard -110 play

Like you could have two single bets and throw like Ohio State -1200 on each for two 2-teamers.

There’s that off chance Ohio State loses, but going 1-1 nets you a profit.

I think stuff like that is underutilized. You can get a lot of extra value that way
100% agree. Especially in MLB for me. I don't like huge chalk but will look at RL plays to see if there is value. But, if the RL's are a stretch on any value for individual plays, I throw 2 big Favs (-250 or better) together to get some payout. I don't do this very often though.
 
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