College Basketball Odds, Picks: Our Staff’s 4 Best Bets for Tuesday’s Slate (Nov. 29)

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By Tanner McGrath

I pretty much auto-lay it with Shaka Smart when he’s catching points. He’s 72-49-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, good for a 59.5% clip with a 15% ROI.


That includes 2-0 this season, as Shaka’s Golden Eagles covered +8 against Purdue and +3.5 against Mississippi State.

Shaka now hosts a Baylor squad playing its first true road game of the season following Feast Week matchups against Virginia and UCLA.

Baylor’s backcourt has the goods, but Marquette’s perimeter defense is nothing to scoff at. The Eagles are top-60 in defensive turnover rate and pick-and-roll points per possession allowed, which should make freshman Keyonte George shake in his boots a bit.

But no matter the matchup, Shaka always keeps these games within three possessions. I’ll bank on him to do it again.

Pick: Marquette +6.5 (Play to +6)

 

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By D.J. James

San Diego State had a rough go of it in the Maui Invitational, dropping two hard-fought games to Arizona and Arkansas. The Aztecs look to bounce back at home against UC Irvine on Tuesday night, though.

UCI prospers on the defensive end. It ranks 53rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which is why it comes into this game with a 6-1 record and a win over Oregon.

The Anteaters are holding opponents to 24.3% from 3-point range and 43.3% on 2-pointers this season. With how aggressive they have a tendency of playing, they do foul a ton, so this is one hindrance to betting the total.

Even still, this should be a strong defensive battle with San Diego State.

SDSU is the 17th-ranked KenPom team for a reason. The Aztecs thrive on the defensive end, ranking 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

In year’s past, they would run at a much slower tempo. This year, they rank 105th at the moment, but this could mostly be due to playing Arizona and Arkansas — two notoriously quick teams — in back-to-back affairs.

Expect them to regress back to their own pace, as they will control the tempo of this game.

The Aztecs also have a tendency to foul opponents out of aggression, but they are also holding the opposition to 28.8% on 3-pointers.

Since Nathan Mensah can match up with UCI’s seven-footer (Bent Leuchten), SDSU should be better suited for a defensive-oriented battle inside the arc, as well.

The Aztecs ranked seventh in defensive 2-point percentage (43.5%) last season, and there is no reason they cannot perform similarly the rest of this season.

Again, their 53.4% defensive 2-point percentage this season is due to playing Arkansas and Arizona in Maui.

Expect SDSU to bounce back and keep this game at its preferred pace.

Pick: Under 137 (Play to 132.5)

 

[Tanko]

I'm actually on the Marquette game Biggins.
I like them as well.

 

[Pimike]

SDSU should put Cal Irvine in their place and cover this spread.