College Basketball Best Bets: 2 Top Picks for Thursday’s Slate

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Youngstown State vs. Northern Kentucky​

By Patrick Strollo

The Youngstown State Penguins (5-2) will head to Highland Heights, Kentucky, to face the Northern Kentucky Norse (3-4) as they kick off Horizon League play.

Youngstown State is looking to match its best start since the 2014 season behind a powerhouse offense that ranks first in the Horizon League, scoring an average of 83.9 points per game.

The Penguins’ offense is making its presence known nationally as well (ranking 47th in AdjO) behind a quartet of upperclassmen who are all averaging double digits this season.

Graduate student Adrian Nelson — a Northern Kentucky transfer — is leading the stat line for the Penguins so far this season, with an average of 14.4 points, 9.9 boards and 0.7 blocks per game.

In addition to scoring well, Youngstown State has been excellent on the offensive glass, ranking 33rd nationally in offensive rebound percentage while creating additional scoring opportunities 36% of the time.

The Penguins have been susceptible to allowing points this season, but they do have a favorable matchup against a Norse offense that ranks eighth in the Horizon League by scoring just 68.7 points per game.

Like Youngstown State, Northern Kentucky has an equally porous defense, ranking in the bottom half of the league in AdjD, allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

So far, the Penguins have been one of the best teams against the spread nationally, covering in five of their six contests.

Look for the veteran Youngstown State squad to continue its success against Vegas behind the best offense in the Horizon League as it faces a middle-of-the-road defense.

I’m projecting the Penguins as five-point road favorites and recommend laying the points at 2.5 or better.

Pick: Youngstown State -1 (Play to -2.5)

 

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Arizona State vs. Colorado​

By Charlie DiSturco

I’ve talked about my love for the Sun Devils before. They’re a team of transfers littered with talent.

Chemistry and coaching are the two biggest question marks when it comes to if this team can put it all together and contend for a Pac-12 title, and so far they’ve answered the challenge.

After a let-down loss to Texas Southern, Arizona State bounced back with a win against VCU and a blowout over Michigan.

The success has come with the ultra-talented Marcus Bagley sidelined because of a team-issued suspension, too.

Arizona State’s defense is disruptive. While it doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, it’s second in eFG%, third in defending the perimeter and sixth against 2-point attempts.

Offensively, the Sun Devils love to drive and finish through contact in the paint, getting to the free-throw line at the 12th-highest rate in the country.

Bobby Hurley’s squad can go 9-or-10 players deep at any point in time, consistently bringing in fresh legs and wearing down the opposing team. This is a perfect matchup against a Colorado offense that relies heavily on KJ Simpson.

The Buffaloes are outside the top 200 in eFG% and 240th in 3-pointers. They struggle at the free-throw line and are outside the top 175 in turnover rate.

Simpson is the engine of the offense and is used on 30% of possessions. But I expect Arizona State to be able to contain the do-it-all point guard and disrupt him with constant pressure.

Included in Colorado’s struggles have been losses to both Massachusetts and Grambling State. Defensively, the Buffs are about average and don’t force many turnovers.

The key here is limiting Colorado’s second-chance opportunities behind Warren Washington and Alonzo Gaffney. The duo will be relied on heavily to rebound and remain out of foul trouble if Bagley remains sidelined.

This is just too many points for an Arizona State team that has the potential to make some noise in the Pac-12 this season, and I would back the Sun Devils down to 3.5 in a game where I believe they hold all the cards — aside from home court advantage.

Pick: Arizona State +4.5 (Play to +3.

 

[carolinakid]

Thanks Bigs for the info, gl tonite

 

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1-1 tonight