Best bets for Monday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

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Best bets for Monday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens​

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The Baltimore Ravens will host the Indianapolis Colts to wrap up Week 5 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).

ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody and Anita Marks, ESPN Analytics' Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders have teamed up to offer up their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.

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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 46)​

Moody: Carson Wentz is getting healthier and returned to a full practice Thursday for the first time since Week 1. He's averaged 34.5 passing attempts and 230 passing yards this season. Meanwhile, the Ravens' defense has allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (273) to opponents. Wentz posted a 115.1 passer rating in a win against the Dolphins last week. The Colts didn't have to rely on him in the second half thanks to a three-score lead, but the Ravens will put up more of a fight against Indianapolis on their home field. Wentz's positive momentum should continue against Baltimore. His mobility has also returned, which could result in more scrambles. Wentz has averaged 3.5 rushing attempts and 17 rushing yards per game this season.

Picks: Wentz over 224.5 passing yards and 9.5 rushing yards

Moody: Michael Pittman Jr. has averaged 10.7 targets and 83.3 receiving yards on a per-game basis over the past three weeks. He's also averaged an impressive 118 air yards over that span of time. Air yards are defined as the number of yards the ball travels in the air on a passing play, from the line of scrimmage to the contact point. Pittman is certainly gifted enough to thrive against the Ravens cornerbacks. One matchup the Colts could exploit is having him line up against slot cornerback Tavon Young. Through four games, Pittman has caught 4-of-8 targets when in the slot for 74 yards.

Pick: Pittman over 52.5 receiving yards

Moody: Marquise Brown is averaging only 6.8 targets this season. However, he's also averaged 111.2 air yards and 81.5 receiving yards. Over the past two games, Brown has averaged 23.4 air yards per target. He had three drops in Week 3, all of which could have resulted in touchdowns. However, Brown made amends with the betting community with a stunning 49-yard touchdown where he lunged out and secured the football before plummeting to the turf. "Hollywood" faces a Colts defense that has allowed Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and DeVante Parker to average 98.25 receiving yards per game.

Pick: Brown over 55.5 receiving yards

Moody: Last week against the Broncos was Lamar Jackson's second regular-season game in which he's surpassed 300 passing yards. Jackson has averaged 269.2 passing yards in 2021. So far this season, the Colts' secondary has allowed Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Jacoby Brissett to average 232 passing yards per game. The Colts' defense expects Jackson to threaten them as a rusher. However, I anticipate Jackson will lean more on his passing ability in this matchup as he continues to evolve as a pro quarterback.

Pick: Jackson over 227.50 passing yards

Walder: Eric and I are in sync! The Ravens have a strong offensive blocking advantage in both the running and passing games, so one way or another, I think it will be a big yardage day for Jackson. However, I lean toward those yards coming through the air. Since 2019, Jackson has scrambled at the highest rate against two-man and Cover 1 coverages -- both of which the Colts run at a below-average rate. That should encourage Jackson to pass more often.

I'm still on the Brown receiving overs, too. So far, Brown's expected receiving yards opportunity -- based on the expected completion probabilities and YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- is over 77 yards per game. As long as that opportunity keeps up, and he can connect with Jackson at just an average rate, the over is more likely.

Picks: Jackson over 227.5 passing yards, Brown over 55.5 receiving yards

Schatz: The Ravens are sixth in DVOA so far this season and they rank even better (fourth) in Football Outsiders' DAVE ratings, which combine 2021 performance with preseason projections early in the season. What makes the Ravens the strongest is the team's balance among all three units -- ranking 10th on offense, 12th on defense, and second on special teams. The Ravens have the rare special teams unit that stays consistently strong every year.


Indianapolis, on the other hand, is 23rd right now in DVOA. The Colts are just 26th in offensive DVOA and their best player, guard Quenton Nelson, is on injured reserve. Their defense is also struggling with a number of starters (Rock Ya-Sin, Khari Willis, and Kwity Paye) missing last week's game and not practicing so far this week. Watch for Lamar Jackson to finally drive the Baltimore offense with his passing in this game, as the Colts have been fifth in DVOA against the run so far this season, but just 26th against the pass.

Pick: Ravens -7

Marks: Wentz is still dealing with ankle issues and will have a rough night against a Ravens' Front 7 that is pressuring quarterbacks at a league-high 47% rate. An injured Colts offensive line will have its hands full with Calais Campbell and crew. Expect Lamar Jackson to light up the night, as he is sporting a 13-yard depth-of-target and is ranked first in yards per completion. Michael Pittman Jr. has averaged 10 targets and six catches over the last three games.

Picks: Ravens -7, Jackson over 27.5 passing attempts (-120), over 1.5 touchdowns (-110), Pittman over 4.5 receptions (+105)