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Best bets for El Clásico and FA Cup action
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAnother big domestic European soccer weekend is on the horizon, with one of the world's biggest rivalries in Spain, as well as the quarterfinals of the world's oldest official soccer competition in England. All of those games are on ESPN+, and all of them are worth a peek on the betting markets.
Let's take a look ahead with our best bets for the weekend.
Real Madrid v. Barcelona (Sunday)
With 10 games to go in the La Liga season, Real Madrid has a 10-point lead on second-place Sevilla and a15-point lead on third-place Barcelona (which has a game in hand). FiveThirtyEight projects Real Madrid as a 97% title favorite, so the slim title hopes of both Sevilla and Barcelona likely hinge on the leader dropping points at home on Sunday.
Whether or not Karim Benzema starts after injuring his calf on Monday, I expect scoring in this game. Stylistically, the matchup suits both teams, as Barcelona looks to possess the ball, and Real Madrid tries to strike on the counter. Their January SuperCup meeting in Saudi Arabia was a snapshot of these differences. Barcelona had more possession (53%), more sequences of greater than five passes (52-32), and an average sequence time that was nearly three-and-a-half seconds longer (13.4 seconds to 10.0). The teams combined for 34 shots and 4.4 expected goals in Real Madrid's 3-2 win. This game should look similar, which should again lead to goals.
Both teams have been playing in "goalfests" of late. Four of Real Madrid's last five games have had at least three goals, and all of them had at least three expected goals. Six of Barcelona's last seven games have had at least three goals and three expected goals, and Barcelona alone has scored 20 goals over its past seven games. Plus, the last four Clásicos have had three or more goals, including both previous meetings between these sides this season.
Real Madrid won both of those games, the aforementioned 3-2 win in January, and 2-1 at Camp Nou in October. In fact, Real Madrid has won five straight meetings for the first time since the 1960s. Madrid has scored twice in all five games over the past two years, and both teams scored in the last three matchups. In what should be a loose game,
With both teams in good form, I could see just about anything happening, so I'm not playing a side in this one, although I lean toward a fresher Real Madrid (+110), which last played on Monday, over a Barcelona side that survived a Thursday Europa League game in Turkey. I'll pay the juice for my picks below -- and I wouldn't even mind playing over 3.5 goals (+165),) if you're feeling bolder.
Picks: Over 2.5 goals (-150), both teams to score (-170)
FA Cup Quarterfinals
Moving on to England, the FA Cup is down to the quarterfinals, with six Premier League clubs and two Championships clubs remaining. Just like in the league race, Manchester City (+165) and Liverpool (+240) are the title favorites, followed by Chelsea (+400) and then everyone else.
These matches are all single legs, with extra time and penalty kicks if necessary, so these bets are all for regulation only.
Let's first take a look at two Premier League giants going up against two of the better Championship teams this season. On Saturday, we've got Middlesbrough v. Chelsea and on Sunday, there's Nottingham Forest v. Liverpool.
Unsurprisingly, both Chelsea and Liverpool have dominated lower-division opposition in the FA Cup this year. Chelsea has averaged 74% possession and outshot three opponents by an average of 27-8 and 3.2 expected goals to 1.2. Liverpool has averaged 76% possession and outshot opponents by an average of 18-5 and 2.3 expected goals to 0.6.
I'm not overthinking these bets. Against a relegation-threatened Premier League team, I'd be happy to lay a goal and a half at these prices, so I'm fine playing both Chelsea and Liverpool on the goalline against Championship clubs.
Picks: Chelsea -1.5 at Middlesbrough (+135), Liverpool -1.5 at Forest (-135)
Crystal Palace v. Everton (Sunday)
Before Thursday's stoppage-time win (on nine shots and 0.7 expected goals), Everton had three wins and five losses across all competitions since Frank Lampard took over in February. Two of the wins were at home in the FA Cup (Brentford, Boreham Wood), and the other was at home against Marcelo Bielsa's crumbling Leeds United. In the five losses, Everton has a total of one goal, with no more than 11 shots and 0.7 expected goals, while conceding at least 2.0 expected goals in four of five games. That's not great!
Crystal Palace has been a fine mid-table team, sitting 11th in the table and ninth in expected goals difference. Palace may have been fortunate in playing Man City to a 0-0 draw this week after allowing 19 shots and 3.1 expected goals, but Patrick Vieira's side has enough quality in players like Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher. I played Palace at +120 earlier in the week, and I'd still play this down to even money, going with the significantly better team at home.
Pick: Crystal Palace win (+120)
