Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

[KVB]

We got openers. Making some early buys.

Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket for last week. The Fund was -4.24 Units while going 8-6 vs the closing line with an average of .13 cents ahead of the close last week.

Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 14-Nov​ AKRON +175 -1 142 Y 0.33 W MICH +140 -1 172 N 0.32 16-Nov​ BC +106 -1 110 N -0.04 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159 -1 163 N -0.04 18-Nov​ MICH ST +173 1.73 162 Y 0.11 KENTUCKY +112 -1 113 N -0.01 NC STATE +136 1.36 105 Y 0.21 E CAROLINA +128 -1 114 Y 0.14 PURDUE +100 -1 108 N -0.08 ILLINOIS +162 -1 130 Y 0.32 UTAH +102 -1 120 N -0.18 WASH +113 1.13 106 Y 0.07 UCF +146 -1 108 Y 0.38 UNLV +154 1.54 130 Y 0.24 Total -4.24​ 8-6-0 0.13​

This is a market tracking Fund that we know oscillates from years of posting in the past. I've only posted two weeks so far and I did post the history chart for the year.

Here's the up to date chart and you can see where we are in this market...

Can't wait to see where that chart goes to next?

Here are all the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket posted plays, with links to each play. The posted plays are -6.76 units going 19-9 against the close with an average of .16 cents ahead of the closing line...

Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 7-Nov​ C MICH +154 -1 136 Y 0.18 10-Nov​ WYOMING +170 -1 127 Y 0.43 11-Nov​ VTECH +114 1.14 -140 Y 0.54 MINNESOTA -105 -1 -124 Y 0.19 TEXAS ST +105 -1 -135 Y 0.40 APP ST +124 1.24 125 N -0.01 TTECH +160 1.6 153 Y 0.07 RUTGERS +126 -1 -101 Y 0.27 WASH ST +105 -1 108 N -0.03 TENN -108 -1 -118 Y 0.10 AUBURN +130 1.3 110 Y 0.20 CINCI +120 1.2 140 N 0.20 SDSU +176 -1 158 Y 0.18 FRESNO ST +125 -1 117 Y 0.08 14-Nov​ AKRON +175 -1 142 Y 0.33 W MICH +140 -1 172 N 0.32 16-Nov​ BC +106 -1 110 N -0.04 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159 -1 163 N -0.04 18-Nov​ MICH ST +173 1.73 162 Y 0.11 KENTUCKY +112 -1 113 N -0.01 NC STATE +136 1.36 105 Y 0.21 E CAROLINA +128 -1 114 Y 0.14 PURDUE +100 -1 108 N -0.08 ILLINOIS +162 -1 130 Y 0.32 UTAH +102 -1 120 N -0.18 WASH +113 1.13 106 Y 0.07 UCF +146 -1 108 Y 0.38 UNLV +154 1.54 130 Y 0.24 Total -6.76 19-9-0 0.16

 

[KVB]

Lines are moving after some buys, yet some palces are lagging.

Once again, my plays will be slightly past posted, which I hate when tracking the closer here, but I will offer this in blitz fashion...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

101​ 21-Nov E MICHIGAN +7 (-110) 141​ 25-Nov OHIO ST +4.5 (-110)

 

[KVB]

Once again, close to blitz style, I can post that The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

129​ 24-Nov AIR FORCE +6.5 (-108) 139​ 25-Nov WAKE FOREST +3 (-111) 155​ PITT +6.5 (-110) 169​ TULSA +3.5 (-108) 191​ ARKANSAS ST +3 (-115) 211​ NAVY +20.5 (-108) 221​ N'WESTERN +20.5 (-108)

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

141​ 25-Nov​ OHIO ST +161

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket picked up...

185​ 24-Nov​ UTSA +122

I meant to post this with Ohio St. This was bought earlier, an FD buy, and likely will be more like +112 when widely available.

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

167​ 25-Nov​ INDIANA +112 169​ TULSA +139

Raw openers here.

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

139​ 25-Nov​ WAKE FOREST +114

 

[KVB]

Once again, close to blitz style, I can post that The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

129​ 24-Nov AIR FORCE +6.5 (-108) 139​ 25-Nov WAKE FOREST +3 (-111) 155​ PITT +6.5 (-110) 169​ TULSA +3.5 (-108) 191​ ARKANSAS ST +3 (-115) 211​ NAVY +20.5 (-108) 221​ N'WESTERN +20.5 (-108)

Correction here. Accidentaly put the Navy line in the N'western row.

Here's the actual buy...

221​ 25-Nov N'WESTERN +6 (-110)

+5.5 (-108) at BM are acceptable here.

 

[jjgold]

KVP Let’s come to a decision
With your lovely wife, and coming to some sort of an agreement with nudes

 

[KVB]

KVP Let’s come to a decision
With your lovely wife, and coming to some sort of an agreement with nudes

Ark st, sj st, Jax st Ga St all coming your motherfukkin way Gold. Birmingham in your ass too.

Now hold still...

 

[KVB]

Ark st, sj st, Jax st Ga St all coming your motherfukkin way Gold. Birmingham in your ass too.

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

121​ 24-Nov​ IOWA -101 179​ 25-Nov​ GA ST +127 191​ ARKANSAS ST +119 197​ SJST +136 219​ UAB +130 233​ JACKSONVILLE ST +120

Iowa is a BM buy and Jax St is a 365 buy but that's priced out now and +102 is still acceptable but margin is not much there.

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

223​ 25-Nov​ IOWA ST +11.5 (-108)

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has added...

189​ 25-Nov FLORIDA ATL +5 (-108)

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

189​ 25-Nov​ FLORIDA ATL +172

 

[jjgold]

You’re a Jewish so you don’t celebrate Thanksgiving I can see where you’re coming from

 

[KVB]

You’re a Jewish so you don’t celebrate Thanksgiving I can see where you’re coming from

No Gold, big family gathering and meal on Friday this year. It's just how it all falls together.

So today is just prep, no big party.

 

[pete0]

Here are all the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket posted plays, with links to each play. The posted plays are -6.76 units going 19-9 against the close with an average of .16 cents ahead of the closing line...

Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 7-Nov​ C MICH +154 -1 136 Y 0.18 10-Nov​ WYOMING +170 -1 127 Y 0.43 11-Nov​ VTECH +114 1.14 -140 Y 0.54 MINNESOTA -105 -1 -124 Y 0.19 TEXAS ST +105 -1 -135 Y 0.40 APP ST +124 1.24 125 N -0.01 TTECH +160 1.6 153 Y 0.07 RUTGERS +126 -1 -101 Y 0.27 WASH ST +105 -1 108 N -0.03 TENN -108 -1 -118 Y 0.10 AUBURN +130 1.3 110 Y 0.20 CINCI +120 1.2 140 N 0.20 SDSU +176 -1 158 Y 0.18 FRESNO ST +125 -1 117 Y 0.08 14-Nov​ AKRON +175 -1 142 Y 0.33 W MICH +140 -1 172 N 0.32 16-Nov​ BC +106 -1 110 N -0.04 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159 -1 163 N -0.04 18-Nov​ MICH ST +173 1.73 162 Y 0.11 KENTUCKY +112 -1 113 N -0.01 NC STATE +136 1.36 105 Y 0.21 E CAROLINA +128 -1 114 Y 0.14 PURDUE +100 -1 108 N -0.08 ILLINOIS +162 -1 130 Y 0.32 UTAH +102 -1 120 N -0.18 WASH +113 1.13 106 Y 0.07 UCF +146 -1 108 Y 0.38 UNLV +154 1.54 130 Y 0.24 Total -6.76 19-9-0 0.16

Regarding beating closers,
I personally feel like beating the line movement overall is not the true metric to win/loss

line movement only matters when sharps hit it first, then public be4 tip-off.

correct me if i'm wrong.
early & late movement metric might be a better strategy to go off of.

 

[KVB]

I personally feel like beating the line movement overall is not the true metric to win/loss

Beating the closing line is important. That margin, which I will soon go into in depth is very important.

Personally, I feel markets can be more inefficent than many so I can be mixed about it.

Most importantly though, it's not about a metric to win loss, closing line value can represent a predictor of future success. This is huge.

But none of this is about beating the closer, these are the early qualified buys.

 

[JDS]

Beating the closing line is important. That margin, which I will soon go into in depth is very important.

Personally, I feel markets can be more inefficent than many so I can be mixed about it.

Most importantly though, it's not about a metric to win loss, closing line value can represent a predictor of future success. This is huge.

But none of this is about beating the closer, these are the early qualified buys.

I completely agree with this POV.

 

[KVB]

line movement only matters when sharps hit it first, then public be4 tip-off.

This statement is not necessarily true. If you want to talk about sharps hitting it first, this thread is there to show that.

But it's not always the public right before tip off at all. Limits are slowly increased so the sharpest has to be careful how they trade. The closer to tipoff the more can be gotten down. Markets are not as liquid early on.