Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

A solid spot for the Red Raiders tonight. Kansas has been elite all year but they are going into a tough place to play in Lubbock. Home crowds are very critical in college basketball, but especially in the Big 12 in recent years. I think the Raiders defense will hold this Kansas offense down and potentially get the outright win. It'll come down to late free throw shooting so let's hope Tech doesn't miss many front end of one and one opportunities.

Texas Tech +1.5 (-110) v. Kansas
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I like this spot for George Mason. They are playing well this year and have their offense averaging over 70 points per game. St. Bonnies has been an elite home team but I think we see a small regression with 3 pointers made tonight. They had 13 made shots from the outside their previous game which is way above their average. The key will be the Patriots free throw shooting tonight. If they knock those down, they'll run away with tonight's game.

George Mason ML (-110) v. St. Bonaventure
2 UNIT

 

[Analytics Capper]

Iowa has been playing terrible basketball as of late. But they are favored today against a pretty good Indiana team. I think we trust the read here and hope Iowa finds their shooting form at home. If they win tonight, it would be by a healthy margin so maybe look into alternative spreads as well. We've been doing these type of angles for several years, we'll continue to trust it.

Iowa -1 (-110) v. Indiana
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a really good matchup for Toronto on paper. Athletic and big wing players to defend the Knicks, FVV to defend Brunson, and a solid support from the fans at home to have a distinct advantage. However, the Raptors have been playing really poor as of late only winning 1 game in the last 5. On the other hand, the Knicks are 11-5 in their last 16 and are an outstanding 7-2 in their last 9 road games. But I'm going to trust the spot here. Toronto only shot 32% from the field in their last game and only lost by 3. We know their defense can be dominant if they are focused.

Raptors -3.5 (-110) v. Knicks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

With the Raiders going to their back up today, I don't expect a lot of sustained drives today. Kansas City should confirm their 1 seed in the AFC with a win today. I expect a rout as long as the Chiefs don't give up a defensive or special teams touchdown. The Chiefs need to dominate this game in the trenches and really control the clock with the run game today.

Chiefs -8.5 (-110) v. Raiders
2 Units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Deshaun has been improving each week for Cleveland. They play a solid defense in Pittsburgh but a team that hasn't been great as of late. A lot of luck in the last two weeks to keep their postseason hopes alive, but I think that luck runs out today. Cleveland's defense has also been doing really well keeping teams well below their season averages since Deshaun Watson has returned.

Browns +2.5 (-110) v. Steelers
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Phoenix Suns are awful right now. And everyone is out of the line up. The Warriors, being at home, should completely dominate them in the 1st quarter. I think the Warriors have a chance of covering the 1st quarter, the 1st half, and the full game as well. This is also the final game in Golden State's 7 game home stand. They will want to ensure a victory tonight, especially after losing the previous 2 games. They will want to come out fast and Curry should be returning tonight which will give them a boost.

Warriors 1Q -3.5 (-110) v. Suns
2 Units

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a rematch from a couple nights ago and Tre cleared this pretty easily. Without Vassell in the line up, I expect Tre Jones to continue to get the opportunities and usage to hit this number again. He's an underrated rebounder from the point guard position, and he has been very poorly as of late. If he gets the same amount of shot attempts, I expect his efficiency to be better tonight which will equate to more points.

Tre Jones over 18.5 PT+REB (-110)
2 units

 

[lemartinsports]

got anything for tonight??

 

[Analytics Capper]

got anything for tonight??

Just posted!

 

[Analytics Capper]

A nice value spot for the Nets. They have been playing extremely well, but just lost their best player in Durant in the last game. I would assume everyone would fade that spot and back a team like the Celtics. But these Nets are playing much better as a unit and defensively. I think they will somehow get it done tonight through defense and 3 point shooting. TJ Warren can provide some much needed offense off the bench in Durant's absence.

Nets +2 (-110) v. Celtics
1 Unit

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Pacers are missing a lot of guys tonight. But we all know in the NBA that might ultimately be a good thing when it comes to betting. This is a tough travel for the Hawks to head up into Indiana and they may be overlooking the Pacers. I think the value here is on the home team, as their offensive system is still great without some of their key guys. I think the Hawks will sneakily get the cover and outright win tonight.

Pacers +2 (-110) v. Hawks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

I usually don't like backing the Lakers at home. But as an underdog, there's solid value here. LA has been playing better even considering they lost the last 2 games straight up. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 while Philadelphia is only 2-4 ATS in their last 6. This is a rematch from a few weeks ago. The 76ers beat LA 133-122 in Philadelphia. This was mostly contingent on their big 3 point shooting advantage, making 7 more shots from long range than LA. If the Lakers can keep this discrepancy below 5 threes, I think they have a shot at covering.

Lakers +3.5 (-110) v. 76ers
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

This is a great spot for the Raptors to get a win on the road at Madison Square Garden today. The Knicks are riding high and just won the previous game when these two teams faced each other. But I think the Raptors are in a much different head space than where they were a few weeks ago. They are playing better defense, and if they can knock down their threes, they are a formidable opponent. From a betting point of view, you can't touch the Knicks right now because they are too hot and the value is with the Raptors. Short dog on the road, I like the spot.

Raptors +2.5 (-110) v. Knicks
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Flames have been up and down all year. But recently is in better form than Colorado who have disappointingly only won 3 of their last 10 games. This includes coming off two straight wins for the Avalanche, against the Red Wings and Senators. With that said, it's also a nice bounceback spot for the Flames. They are coming off a 1-2 loss to Nashville in which they outshot their opponent 39-29 and were 0/4 on the power play. There should be some better puck luck for them tonight as they try to extend this nice stretch they have going, including 8-4 in their last 12 home games.

Flames ML (-150) v. Avalanche
2 Units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Minnesota is on a second night of a back to back, including travel. This is a bad scheduling game for the Twolves. Raptors are also playing a lot better as of late, 4-2 in their last 6 games against the spread. They also have played Minnesota very well in head to head matchups. 6-1 ATS against Minnesota and 8-1 straight up overall in their last 9 meetings. The wings match up well against the Timberwolves and I expect VanVleet do wreack havoc on the Minnesota backcourt.

Raptors -5.5 (-110) v. Twolves
2 units

 

[Analytics Capper]

Royce coming back to familiar territory in Utah. He has had 2 terrible games back to back, but the volume of shots is still there. I think he'll get this comfortably tonight as a regression spot. He's a solid shooter and will get a couple threes and free throws, especially with the defensive attention on Kyrie Irving. I think Royce will score and get the other stats as well, a potential ladder candidate tonight.

Royce O'Neale over 8.5 PT (-110)
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

Memphis is on a second night of a tough back to back on the road. It will be difficult for them to get up for this game to keep up with the Kings offensively. I expect Sacramento to keep the pace high and try to separate in the second half. This should be a shootout with the potential of Memphis giving in early since they are on the road. The key will be 3 point shooting from Murray, Huerter, and company. If they’re on, I see a potential rout.

Kings +1.5 (-110) v. Grizzlies
2U

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot here for Darius Garland to have a great night. OKC's best defender, Dort is out of the line up and Garland's backcourt teammate Mitchell will be out as well. This will give a lot of opportunities for Darius to score and handle the basketball. I expect at least 40 minutes tonight, especially because I also expect the game to be relatively close throughout the night. He's been assisting the ball very well recently, I'd love for him to have an uptick in rebounds as well to help clear this number.

Garland [CLE] o37.5 PRA (-110)
2 UNITS

 

[Analytics Capper]

The New York / Brooklyn rivalry continues today. Great value for the Nets tonight without Kevin Durant. And a solid spot to fade the Knicks, coming off 2 losses in a row straight up as an underdog, most notably against the Celtics the last time out 120-117 on the road as 9 point underdogs. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has lost 2 straight including an awful showing against Detroit where they gave up 130 points to the Pistons. The Nets team is quietly built around their defense, and they will need to turn it up a notch this afternoon against the Knicks. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson have both been great and if you hold one of them down, it's likely the Nets will get the victory. Ben Simmons needs to have an impactful game.

Nets -1 (-110) v. Knicks
2 Units