I know he's basically favored at this exact moment, but it's early, there is a lot of golf to play.
I think Nicolas Echevarria is in a position to potentially win this thing.
He's .17 cents on the exchanges, that's about +488 in the LIVE markets.
Smotherman is .14 cents, about +614
But my man Berger is 3rd place at .07 cents, +1329. A strong start for a Top20 bet.
A lot of golf left, I only have Top20 positions, but I may be looking to pick a winner here in Echevarria.
In-Play Tactics
If you're playing before the off, it's always worth checking out the weather forecast as the wind can cause havoc here and large draw biases over the first two rounds aren't unusual.
The differential in scores between the AM-PM and PM-AM wave wasn't huge last year (1.75 strokes), and Highsmith won from the wrong side of the draw, but the top nine at halfway had all began the event on Thursday morning.
Highsmith really went against the grain 12 months ago and in the fullness of time, the 2025 result will probably be viewed as an outrageous outlier.
The only player inside the top seven places with a round to go to break 70 on Sunday was Ben Griffin, who shot 69 to fall from tied third to tied fourth and that opened the door to the chasers.
Matched at 1000.0, in-running, Highsmith had needed to hole a four-and-a-half-foot par putt on the 18th on Friday just to make the cut and he became the first winner on the PGA Tour to make the cut on the number since Brandt Snedeker had won the Farmers Insurance Open in appalling conditions at Torrey Pines back in 2016.
He was helped by the leaders all stuttering on Sunday but even so, it was a remarkable comeback given he'd trailed by eight at halfway and his back-to-back 64s over the weekend saw him win his first PGA Tour title by two strokes.
Prior to last year, history had suggested that you must be up with the pace at PGA National and the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, had been the only winner of the event in the previous 18 editions to be outside the top seven places at halfway. He'd sat ninth.
Ernie Els, in 2008, and Straka in 2022, both sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway, but every other event winner here has been within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes.
History may suggest that you need to be in the van at halfway but a mediocre first round has been overcome on several occasions.
Highsmith had sat tied 11th and only six behind Knapp after opening up with a 65 (shot 72 on Friday) but Mark Wilson sat tied for 53rd and seven adrift after round one and two of the last six winners - Im and Straka - were outside the top-60 after the opening day's play. Im trailed by six and Straka seven. Kirk sat tied for 27th and four adrift after round one three years ago but he was up to second and just one back at halfway.
If you plan to bet in-running, especially on Sunday, bear in mind that the par five 18th ranked as the third easiest hole on the course last year but the finish to PGA National is tough enough when you're not in contention but when there's a title on the line it's brutal. As a result, we've witnessed plenty of in-play carnage here over the years.
