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Expert picks, best bets: Best value at UFC 300 and PFL?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe UFC will put on its biggest pay-per-view event yet when the promotion hosts UFC 300 on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight card, which is loaded with much of the UFC's top talent, will be headlined by a light heavyweight title fight as champion Alex Pereira puts his belt on the line against former champ Jamahal Hill (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+, and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN+).
Pereira (9-2), No. 3 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has lost only one fight in the UFC -- a middleweight title defense against former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya last year. Hill (12-1) is making his return to the Octagon after an injury kept him out of action for nearly 15 months.
The UFC 300 co-main event is a title bout as well, with Zhang Weili defending her strawweight belt against Yan Xiaonan. And the BMF belt will be on the line when Justin Gaethje clashes with Max Holloway.
The PFL also will be in action this weekend when the promotion hosts 2024 PFL Regular Season: Light Heavyweights and Lightweights on Friday night at The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+).
In the main event, last season's light heavyweight champ, Impa Kasanganay, takes on Alex Polizzi. Also on the card, former Bellator lightweight champion Patricky "Pitbull" Freire makes his PFL debut against Clay Collard.
Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC title fights. ESPN betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the top UFC bouts and other intriguing bets they like on the card. Parker also provides his best bets for Friday's PFL fight card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight title fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| PEREIRA | HILL | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36.8 | 32.9 |
| Height | 76.0 | 76.0 |
| Reach | 79.0 | 79.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Nov. 11, 2023 | Jan. 21, 2023 |
How Hill wins: Hill possesses a remarkable talent for MMA: his striking IQ. His standout attribute is his uncanny ability to anticipate and exploit his opponent's defensive vulnerabilities. Hill has consistently capitalized on these openings to secure knockouts, leveraging his astute reading of his opponents' flaws. Whether it's Jimmy Crute's hand positioning or Johnny Walker's exposed chin, Hill has consistently found ways to land devastating strikes. This combination of tactical awareness and knockout power in both hands constitutes Hill's greatest strength in this fight, especially knowing that Pereira tends to keep his head in the centerline.
X factor: While Hill's leg injury may loom large as a potential factor in this fight, my firsthand observations in working with Hill suggest he's fully recovered. That bodes well for the division, which needs star power like Hill's. Therefore, my attention shifts to the tactical aspect of the bout: setting fight-ending traps. Both Pereira and Hill possess exceptional skills as data collectors and counterstrikers. The true determining factor lies in who can process information the fastest and execute the decisive blow. It's a battle of wits and reflexes, where the fighter who can lure his opponent into a fight-ending trap will emerge victorious.
Prediction: Hill to win by TKO.
Betting analysis
UFC 300: Pereira Vs. Hill
| Standup striking offense | Pereira | Hill |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 3:1 | 4:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Head jab accuracy | 47% | 35% |
| Head power accuracy | 44% | 44% |
| Standup strike ratio (attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per minutes standing/clinch | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Takedown accuracy | 100% | N/A |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 30 | 48 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 71% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 4% | 47% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Hill will land much more frequently, while Pereira could land harder. The question is durability. The 32-year-old Hill is younger and has yet to be knocked down, while the 36-year-old Pereira has taken more damage over a longer and busier career, which includes 40 kickboxing bouts. Those factors present value in Hill as an underdog in a close matchup.
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds (-180). We all know the power Pereira has in that left hook. However, he keeps his hands very low, leaving his chin exposed to get hit. Which we saw in his last fight against Israel Adesanya, where Pereira got knocked out.
Between the two fighters, Hill is the better athlete and could even take this fight to the mat, where he could do some good work from top position. I don't see this fight going all five rounds, but the over 1.5 rounds can't be ignored. In Hill's past two fights, he won in Round 4 against Thiago Santos and went to a decision against Glover Teixeira. And each of Pereira's last four fights have lasted past the 1.5-round mark. I don't mind taking a chance on Hill at plus money, but my favorite play here is over 1.5 rounds.
Strawweight title fight: Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| ZHANG | YAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34.7 | 34.8 |
| Height | 64.0 | 65.0 |
| Reach | 63.0 | 63.0 |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Aug. 19, 2023 | May 6, 2023 |
How Yan wins: Yan has made significant improvements in her footwork and composure, particularly under the guidance of Danny Castillo and Team Alpha Male. To win, she should rely on her linear strikes to catch Zhang as she initiates combinations off her lead side, primarily the hook. Timing her straight right could capitalize on Zhang's forward momentum and maximize the impact of her strikes.
X factor: While Yan's wrestling has evolved during her time at Team Alpha Male, that remains untested against the champion. Yan's previous struggles against Carla Esparza's wrestling and ground-and-pound highlight a potential vulnerability. The result may hinge on how Yan addresses this weakness, particularly in her wrestling defense and ability to escape from unfavorable positions off her back.
Prediction: Zhang to win by TKO.
Betting analysis
UFC 300: Zhang Vs. Yan
| Standup striking offense | Zhang | Yan |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 3:1 | 1:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Head jab accuracy | 19% | 32% |
| Head power accuracy | 32% | 38% |
| Standup strike ratio (attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per minutes standing/clinch | 0.53 | 0.11 |
| Takedown accuracy | 42% | 67% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 9 | 34 |
| Takedown defense | 6% | 71% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 75% | 34% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Both fighters set a furious pace. They average a combined 32 strike attempts per minute at a distance -- higher than any pairing of fighters on a card loaded with busy strikers. Yan's accuracy and defense look a little better, but admittedly she took advantage of a few fighters who were single-dimensional wrestlers.
It's on the mat where the stats diverge. Zhang's wrestling has emerged as a key part of her dominance, and while Yan has above-average takedown defense, she's been controlled on the mat far more often than not. That leaves Zhang with a clear backup plan if she can't pull away on the feet. Interestingly, the prop to start Round 3 is cheaper than playing Zhang's moneyline.
BMF title fight, lightweight: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Gaethje wins: Gaethje needs to find ways to neutralize Holloway's jab, which is one of his strongest weapons. This could involve targeting Holloway's calf and slipping to counter the jab with power shots like the overhand and uppercut. But Gaethje should vary the technique so it doesn't become predictable.How Holloway wins: Avoid the centerline and instead attack from angles, leveraging his ability to strike effectively from both stances. Maintaining a high volume of strikes will be key, forcing Gaethje to pursue him throughout the fight.
X factor: Since we know neither fighter will shoot a takedown, this may come down to who can better withstand the effects of damage throughout a grueling five-round battle. Judges often consider visual indicators of damage, such as cuts or broken noses, when scoring closely contested fights. Thus, the fighter who appears less affected by such damage at the final bell could sway the judges' decision in their favor.
Prediction: Gaethje to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Over 3.5 rounds. This matchup comes down to the power of Gaethje vs. the volume striking of Holloway. Both fighters are extremely durable. I expect Gaethje to utilize his powerful leg kicks while Holloway pushes the pace and uses his boxing to keep Gaethje at bay.This fight will be an absolute banger, and I believe it's going all five rounds. Holloway hasn't been finished since 2012, which was by submission, and Gaethje hasn't been KO'd since 2018. Unless Holloway pulls off an unexpected submission or Gaethje does what no one has been able to do (knock out Holloway), I'm taking over 3.5 rounds.
Best bets on the rest of the UFC card
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Parker: Tsarukyan to win inside the distance. Oliveira takes on Tsarukyan with a title shot on the line. This matchup should be an action-packed fight for as long as it lasts. Every fight Oliviera gets dropped and, if he doesn't get finished, he finds a way to finish the fight himself. However, I don't see that happening here.This has the same feel as the Makhachev fight. Look for Tsarukyan to drop Oliviera early and finish him with ground-and-pound or take him down and control the fight from there. When on his back, Oliviera is not the same master submission specialist we all love. And when someone as good as Tsarukyan is on top, it's just a matter of time before the fight ends.
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
Parker: Nickal to win by KO/TKO (+135). Nickal will be the biggest favorite on the UFC 300 card; odds are fluctuating, but he's currently at -2500 to win. At such steep odds, we can't even use this betting line in a parlay. But, if you are a strong believer in Nickal like I am, then take him to win by KO/TKO at much better odds. We saw in his last fight he has power on the feet, and Brundage has been dropped many times. Even if Nickal takes him down, instead of going for the submission, I expect him to make a huge statement and finish the fight via ground-and-pound.Men's bantamweight: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt
Kuhn: Figueiredo to win (-300). This card is so stacked that a firecracker matchup between two former champs will be the curtain-jerker. They've scored a combined 22 knockdowns, and trail only one fighter for the highest knockdown rates on the card.There are trade-offs on the mat, with Garbrandt offering better wrestling but Figueiredo's dangerous submissions possibly nullifying that advantage. Most of the time we'll see these two strike, and Figueiredo is much more likely to do damage in the exchanges. He's a heavy favorite, but I'll lay that juice and maybe take an inside the distance prop on him as well.
Parker's PFL best bets
Light heavyweight: Impa Kasanganay vs. Alex Polizzi
Kasanganay to win, use in parlay; Kasanganay to win inside the distance. Coming off a close decision loss to Bellator middleweight champ Johnny Eblen, Kasanganay returns to the PFL SmartCage hoping to have a repeat performance of last season, when he won the championship. Polizzi is coming off two losses in a row, with one of them being a KO by Yoel Romero. I don't see him beating the PFL's only defending champ. Considering how close Kasanganay came to beating Eblen, I have to imagine he can get the job done against Polizzi.Light heavyweight: Robert Wilkinson vs. Tom Breese
Wilkinson to win. After winning the 2022 season, Wilkinson is back after a one-year layoff due to suspension. In his return, Wilkinson takes on Breese, a submission specialist. Breese is riding a three-fight win streak, with all the wins coming via submission. However, if he can't get this fight to the ground, he will be in serious trouble. Wilkinson, who has never been submitted, will try to keep this fight standing, and with his stellar takedown defense, I don't think that will be much of an issue.
