Genuine question: If the refs are rigging this for KC, then why would anyone bet Buffalo?

[Wagerallsports]

Gotta remember the coaching match-up

Andy Reid vs. the guy who used Al Qaeda as an example of properly executing the game plan

Exactly

Andy Reid one of the greats and Mahomes isn’t the Superstar he is today without him

 

[stormtrooper8]

I dislike the Chiefs WAY more than I dislike the Bills

But I gotta be objective here

 

[JDS]

The million dollar question is who is less likely to not take care of the football. If you guess that right, you’re probably gonna win your bet.

 

[JDS]

Buffalo Bills have the best turnover margin per game in the league, just something to think about.

 

[KVB]

It’s most likely ticket data

These are current numbers from BETMGM

BETS% (ATS)	MONEY% (ATS)	BETS% (ML)	MONEY% (ML)
Bills	58%	45%	72%	67%
Chiefs	42%	55%	28%	33%

when I say “it’s most likely ticket data“ I’m talking about the BETS% column, not the MONEY% column.

It looks like yours should be shifted over so that the bills have 58% tickets and 45% money on the spread.

So BMR, or un-regulated has a very different number, unless BMR percentages are not number of bets ATS, but the percentage of money ATS, where KC has 55%.

 

[stormtrooper8]

when I say “it’s most likely ticket data“ I’m talking about the BETS% column, not the MONEY% column.

It looks like yours should be shifted over so that the bills have 58% tickets and 45% money on the spread.

So BMR, or un-regulated has a very different number, unless BMR percentages are not number of bets ATS, but the percentage of money ATS, where KC has 55%.

Yes that is right

And logically, it checks out

 

[KVB]

Yes that is right

And logically, it checks out

The Kansas City Chiefs are on the KVB NFL Contrarian Fund radar, but not triggered.

But currently I have no assets allocated to the KVB NFL Contrarian Fund. So I'm not looking to pick up KC with that strategy, even if the play triggers in the Fund.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Buffalo Bills have the best turnover margin per game in the league, just something to think about.

They've only committed 8 turnovers all year -- all by Allen

Maybe they're due

If Chiefs neutralize the Bills running game, you could see Allen try too hard

 

[fishhead]

They've only committed 8 turnovers all year -- all by Allen

Maybe they're due

If Chiefs neutralize the Bills running game, you could see Allen try too hard

GREAT POST

 

[fishhead]

............... liking KC even more as the week progresses

 

[BigJay]

Genie I doubt you personally collected that info so it’s not on you, you know I love ya.

That said where did this number come from? Can you not say because of disclosure agreements? Is it some kind of aggregate number? Did it come from a specific book? Is the number outdated?

I’ll even ask is that the number on the money line even though it’s on the spread page?

Trying to give BMR the benefit of the doubt here.

Tell us why we should consider that number credible? I’m not saying it has to be credible, I’m just asking you to tell us why we should consider it credible.

This can be referred down the line. I’m not saying you, @BMR Genie , have to know specifically right now, I get it.

Feel free to send any answers via PM, I will respect that privacy.

For now, I will withhold my knowledge, opinion, and general thoughts.

The Wagers % came from the collected data from all the sportsbooks listed in the BMR Odds.

 

[stormtrooper8]

............... liking KC even more as the week progresses

Kinda torn

 

[BigJay]

Kinda torn

 

[coachtaylor]

I keep asking myself, “how many times have the chiefs let you down in this spot.”

the answer is not many. However I dread seeing them in the SB again.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I keep asking myself, “how many times have the chiefs let you down in this spot.”

the answer is not many. However I dread seeing them in the SB again.

They’ve basically lost 3 major games in 7 seasons

 

[gauchojake]

I look at a lot of sources for NFL bets and money percentages. Typically in the NFL, BMR's higher percentages represent the sharper side of the bet. It's not the case in every sport, but for the NFL it seems to usually hold true. I just looked at another source that tracks onshore/legal books and the money/tickets are super heavy for the Bills - over 70%.

 

[JDS]

Caesars Sportsbook* Moneyline bets

 

[Jrgum3]

These are current numbers from BETMGM

BETS% (ATS)	MONEY% (ATS)	BETS% (ML)	MONEY% (ML)
Bills	58%	45%	72%	67%
Chiefs	42%	55%	28%	33%

Sounds like the public is on the Bills and the wiseguys aka sharps are betting the Chiefs. Generally when that happens I have learned to fade the public but it doesn't always win as we all know.

 

[Jrgum3]

I can see betting Bills ATS but Chiefs ML. I haven't decided what I'm ultimately going to do with this game but it's so damn hard to fade Mahomes in a game that means a trip to the Super Bowl.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I keep asking myself, “how many times have the chiefs let you down in this spot.”

the answer is not many. However I dread seeing them in the SB again.

Bet KC and root for Buffalo

Win-Win either way