MLB Picks - Friday, 4/19/24

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Play Friday

Marlins / Cubs UNDER 9.5 -109 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Pirates OVER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Rays / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -110 ACTION (Bookmaker)
Orioles -135 (Heritage)
Blue Jays / Padres UNDER 8.5 -111 (Heritage)


YTD: 29-36-2, -8.48

All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

 

[JDS]

I’m on the Mets as well tonight with you and Donnie. I don’t understand why that play is not included in this thread if it’s a best bet ?

 

[LT Profits]

I’m on the Mets as well tonight with you and Donnie. I don’t understand why that play is not included in this thread if it’s a best bet ?

View attachment 32703

Those are written early morning before I finish updating model for previous day results because they are due 10 AM ET. I projcted Mets as a play at that time, but after updating model had Mets +163 (38%). I want absolute minimum of 2% variance (usually more) before making play, so needed bare minimum of 36% (+178). Line never got there after I woke up (opened in 180s but was +174ish at first AM look).

Yes should have played it NOW (lol), but don't want to get in habit of accepting <2% just because write-up was already done. I WISH I could update model before writing, but early article deadline does not allow for that. I need SOME sleep lol. So articles are based on day old projections and it usually does not matter much. This was rare case where it did, chite happens.

 

[JDS]

Those are written early morning before I finish updating model for previous day results because they are due 10 AM ET. I projcted Mets as a play at that time, but after updating model had Mets +163 (38%). I want absolute minimum of 2% variance (usually more) before making play, so needed bare minimum of 36% (+178). Line never got there after I woke up (opened in 180s but was +174ish at first AM look).

Yes should have played it NOW (lol), but don't want to get in habit of accepting <2% just because write-up was already done. I WISH I could update model before writing, but early article deadline does not allow for that. I need SOME sleep lol. So articles are based on day old projections and it usually does not matter much. This was rare case where it did, chite happens.

Ok very well thanks for explaining makes perfect sense now