LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 14,988
MLB Pick for Wednesday: Bradish, Kirby Have Immediate Rematches in Seattle
We dropped to 15-14 with our MLB write-ups with a loser on Tuesday. However, those are still on an 8-3 run, and we remain +35.84 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We head west to The Emerald City on Wednesday with a late play on Orioles vs. Mariners in Seattle.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, June 17th – 9:40pm ET
The Orioles and the Mariners continue their series in Seattle on Wednesday after the M’s took the series opener 3-1 last night.
Tonight’s starters, Kyle Bradish for the Orioles and George Kirby for the Mariners, both pitched when these teams met in Baltimore last week, meaning each are making their second straight start against the same opponent. And we look for both to have success this time, prompting us to back the Under.
Is Kirby Back?
Kirby has slumped over his last five starts, going 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA over this span. However, we see no need to panic as his xFIP was at 3.45 over those starts. And while this slump leaves him at 5-6 with a 4.07 ERA for the season, the xFIP again stands at 3.55 overall for a pitcher that has had an xFIP in the 3.00s every single season since entering the Major Leagues in 2022.
Moreover, his positive regression may already be in progress as he was an unlucky loser against these Orioles last Wednesday, recording a Quality Start allowing three runs in six innings with 10 strikeouts. Remember also that was in a much more friendly hitter’s environment in Camden Yards, a far cry from this pitcher’s paradise that is T-Mobile Park.
George is averaging career high velocities on both his fastball (96.7 MPH) and slider (faster 97.0 MPH), with the latter rated a career best 107 on Stuff+. In fact, he has nice +Stats across the board with an overall Stuff+ of 102, a Location+ of 112 and a Pitching+ also of 112. Thus, we see an imminent return to normalcy for a guy with a career 3.64 ERA and 3.49 xFIP over 721.2 Major League innings.
He is also facing a Baltimore offense with some of the most severe batting splits against right-handers that you will ever see, as they rank second in baseball in wRC+ against them at home at 126 but 22nd against them on the road as they are here, at a mere 88!
Nice Peripherals for Bradish
Meanwhile, Bradish is just 3-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, and he was hit hard by the Mariners on Thursday allowing five runs in four innings. But he has some solid peripherals that contradict his overall numbers, and that can lead to an improved effort in the rematch, especially with the shift to one of the best pitching parks in the league.
Kyle has one of our favorite combinations, with that being a being a good strikeout rate (8.96/9) and groundball rate (50.0%). Additionally, those metrics are validated a safely above-average soft contact rate of 19.0% (league average 15.3%), a double-digit swinging strike rate and an overall Stuff+ of 100. Yes, the latter is exactly average, but that still belies the ERA and is good enough given the natural pitching boost of this stadium.
But perhaps the most interesting aspect about Bradish is the dissection of his K-Rate. You see that rate is only 7.88/9 at home but 10.74/9 on the road. That possibly points to being more aggressive in attacking the strike zone when pitching away from his very hitter-friendly home stadium.
In the end, we see continued positive regression for Kirby and for Bradish to be at his best pitching at T-Mobile. We are betting on the Under on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -104 at Bookmaker
We dropped to 15-14 with our MLB write-ups with a loser on Tuesday. However, those are still on an 8-3 run, and we remain +35.84 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We head west to The Emerald City on Wednesday with a late play on Orioles vs. Mariners in Seattle.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, June 17th – 9:40pm ET
The Orioles and the Mariners continue their series in Seattle on Wednesday after the M’s took the series opener 3-1 last night.
Tonight’s starters, Kyle Bradish for the Orioles and George Kirby for the Mariners, both pitched when these teams met in Baltimore last week, meaning each are making their second straight start against the same opponent. And we look for both to have success this time, prompting us to back the Under.
Is Kirby Back?
Kirby has slumped over his last five starts, going 0-4 with a 6.67 ERA over this span. However, we see no need to panic as his xFIP was at 3.45 over those starts. And while this slump leaves him at 5-6 with a 4.07 ERA for the season, the xFIP again stands at 3.55 overall for a pitcher that has had an xFIP in the 3.00s every single season since entering the Major Leagues in 2022.
Moreover, his positive regression may already be in progress as he was an unlucky loser against these Orioles last Wednesday, recording a Quality Start allowing three runs in six innings with 10 strikeouts. Remember also that was in a much more friendly hitter’s environment in Camden Yards, a far cry from this pitcher’s paradise that is T-Mobile Park.
George is averaging career high velocities on both his fastball (96.7 MPH) and slider (faster 97.0 MPH), with the latter rated a career best 107 on Stuff+. In fact, he has nice +Stats across the board with an overall Stuff+ of 102, a Location+ of 112 and a Pitching+ also of 112. Thus, we see an imminent return to normalcy for a guy with a career 3.64 ERA and 3.49 xFIP over 721.2 Major League innings.
He is also facing a Baltimore offense with some of the most severe batting splits against right-handers that you will ever see, as they rank second in baseball in wRC+ against them at home at 126 but 22nd against them on the road as they are here, at a mere 88!
Nice Peripherals for Bradish
Meanwhile, Bradish is just 3-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, and he was hit hard by the Mariners on Thursday allowing five runs in four innings. But he has some solid peripherals that contradict his overall numbers, and that can lead to an improved effort in the rematch, especially with the shift to one of the best pitching parks in the league.
Kyle has one of our favorite combinations, with that being a being a good strikeout rate (8.96/9) and groundball rate (50.0%). Additionally, those metrics are validated a safely above-average soft contact rate of 19.0% (league average 15.3%), a double-digit swinging strike rate and an overall Stuff+ of 100. Yes, the latter is exactly average, but that still belies the ERA and is good enough given the natural pitching boost of this stadium.
But perhaps the most interesting aspect about Bradish is the dissection of his K-Rate. You see that rate is only 7.88/9 at home but 10.74/9 on the road. That possibly points to being more aggressive in attacking the strike zone when pitching away from his very hitter-friendly home stadium.
In the end, we see continued positive regression for Kirby and for Bradish to be at his best pitching at T-Mobile. We are betting on the Under on Wednesday.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -104 at Bookmaker
