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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Can Sproat or Perkins Turn Things Around in Sacramento?
We are now 14-12 and on a 7-1 run with our MLB write-ups after our winner on Tuesday, and we are up to +29.02 overall in our MLB Picks thread after a perfect night! We are staying out west in Sacramento on Wednesday with another late-night play in the Brewers vs. Athletics matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, June 10th – 9:05pm ET
After splitting the first two games of this 3-game series, the Brewers and Athletics are set for the rubber match in Sacramento on Wednesday night.
This game pits two pitchers with high ERAs with Jack Perkins starting for the A’s and Milwaukee countering with Brandon Sproat. However, we feel Perkins has much more upside and we are backing him in the Athletics’ pseudo-home stadium in Sutter Health Park.
Nice Command for Perkins
Perkins is coming off his first start of the season after making 17 relief appearances, but he did have some long relief outings and was able to go four innings on Friday, albeit with terrible results. He was touched up for five runs and 10 hits, although he did have six strikeouts over those four innings.
And the latter has become par for the course, as Perkins has a nice K/BB ratio of 10.97/2.53 per nine innings, leading to a nice 3.74 xFIP in 32 innings overall that belies his unsightly 6.19 ERA. Also keep in mind that ERA got more bloated by that terrible first start, and Jack has not done well in the Luck Stats with a high .333 BABIP allowed and a ridiculously low 54.4% strand rate. That makes him a prime candidate for positive regression as his Luck stabilizes.
He has nice pop on his fastball at 96.3 MPH with nice separation to his second most thrown pitch, his excellent 86.2 MPH slider rated a whopping 114 on Stuff+. That has helped lower his hard contact rate to 27.8% from 31.7% last year, to go along with a very good swinging strike rate of 14.5%.
It is also worth noting that Perkins has been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs and only one in this hitter’s haven of a ballpark in 16.1 home innings.
Much Less to Like About Sproat
As for Sproat, he comes in at 1-4 with a 6.17 ERA, and that has come over a larger volume than Perkins with 54 innings pitched over 10 starts plus two relief appearances. Yes, his xFIP is better but it still not great at 4.54, with the lone saving grace being his good 9.00 K-Rate. Still, he has had terrible command with a walk rate of 4.83/9, with that struggle validated by just a 94 Location+.
But perhaps most damaging here is his poor home run rate allowed of 1.83/9, which is what happens when you combine a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 10.5% / 36.2% with a surprisingly low swinging strike rate of 9.4% that disconnects from the good K-Rate. And of course, those issues with the longball get amplified when pitching in this stadium.
He is facing an A’s lineup that 99 wRC+ and a .720 OPS overall, but those figures jump to 105 and .750 here at home.
So, while neither pitcher has frontline stats that jump off the page, Perkins has better regression potential given his good metrics while the ballpark factor can make Sproat’s issue allowing home runs worse. Bet on the Athletics at a cheap price in Sacramento.
THE PICK
Athletics -105 at Heritage
We are now 14-12 and on a 7-1 run with our MLB write-ups after our winner on Tuesday, and we are up to +29.02 overall in our MLB Picks thread after a perfect night! We are staying out west in Sacramento on Wednesday with another late-night play in the Brewers vs. Athletics matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, June 10th – 9:05pm ET
After splitting the first two games of this 3-game series, the Brewers and Athletics are set for the rubber match in Sacramento on Wednesday night.
This game pits two pitchers with high ERAs with Jack Perkins starting for the A’s and Milwaukee countering with Brandon Sproat. However, we feel Perkins has much more upside and we are backing him in the Athletics’ pseudo-home stadium in Sutter Health Park.
Nice Command for Perkins
Perkins is coming off his first start of the season after making 17 relief appearances, but he did have some long relief outings and was able to go four innings on Friday, albeit with terrible results. He was touched up for five runs and 10 hits, although he did have six strikeouts over those four innings.
And the latter has become par for the course, as Perkins has a nice K/BB ratio of 10.97/2.53 per nine innings, leading to a nice 3.74 xFIP in 32 innings overall that belies his unsightly 6.19 ERA. Also keep in mind that ERA got more bloated by that terrible first start, and Jack has not done well in the Luck Stats with a high .333 BABIP allowed and a ridiculously low 54.4% strand rate. That makes him a prime candidate for positive regression as his Luck stabilizes.
He has nice pop on his fastball at 96.3 MPH with nice separation to his second most thrown pitch, his excellent 86.2 MPH slider rated a whopping 114 on Stuff+. That has helped lower his hard contact rate to 27.8% from 31.7% last year, to go along with a very good swinging strike rate of 14.5%.
It is also worth noting that Perkins has been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs and only one in this hitter’s haven of a ballpark in 16.1 home innings.
Much Less to Like About Sproat
As for Sproat, he comes in at 1-4 with a 6.17 ERA, and that has come over a larger volume than Perkins with 54 innings pitched over 10 starts plus two relief appearances. Yes, his xFIP is better but it still not great at 4.54, with the lone saving grace being his good 9.00 K-Rate. Still, he has had terrible command with a walk rate of 4.83/9, with that struggle validated by just a 94 Location+.
But perhaps most damaging here is his poor home run rate allowed of 1.83/9, which is what happens when you combine a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 10.5% / 36.2% with a surprisingly low swinging strike rate of 9.4% that disconnects from the good K-Rate. And of course, those issues with the longball get amplified when pitching in this stadium.
He is facing an A’s lineup that 99 wRC+ and a .720 OPS overall, but those figures jump to 105 and .750 here at home.
So, while neither pitcher has frontline stats that jump off the page, Perkins has better regression potential given his good metrics while the ballpark factor can make Sproat’s issue allowing home runs worse. Bet on the Athletics at a cheap price in Sacramento.
THE PICK
Athletics -105 at Heritage
