JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[jjgold]

Not many guys moved 2nd session

 

[KVB]

Not many guys moved 2nd session

Austin Eckroat Top20 @ .27 cents

Excetp Eckroat who had a treeemendous back 9 finishing it off with eagle.

He moved inside the Top10 and now trades .54 x .51

 

[KVB]

Here are the recent results of the Summer Fund.

Had two total losses Tuesday followed by a decent trade yesterday. Yesterday's trade was actually a very advanced move based on the environment and there were corollary trades that I passed on, but won too. Not really going to explain that further here, as it is a complex situation that merely looks simple, and is for another time.

Can't and shouldn't try to teach calculus if I've skipped over some the basic arithmetic lessons.

For May I am up +1.5155 units or +$151.55 per $100 bet but have fallen below the +10 unit mark for the Fund to date.

The Lab stays consistent and did a great job of navigating yesterday's complex markets while the Trader is in rehab, trying to pull out of the Tuesday debacle with success not just being a winning trade, but passing on low hanging temptation too.

Date Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 3-May TEX +1.5 0.72 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.4 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.23 0 -1 -100 9-May Indiana ML 0.18 0.4 1.22 122.22 . Kopylov 0.52 0.32 -0.38 -38.46 . Kopylov 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 . ARI ML 0.5 1 1.00 100.00 . Miller/Gordon GTD NO 0.49 1 1.04 104.08 . ARI + 1.5 0.55 1 0.82 81.82 10-May ANA ML 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 13-May Indiana ML 0.57 1 0.75 75.44 15-May Phoenix ML 0.62 0.89 0.44 43.55 . Phoenix -3.5 0.53 0.79 0.49 49.06 17-May Tor/LA UNDER 172.5 0.45 0.26 -0.42 -42.22 . Tor/LA UNDER 180.5 0.65 0.55 -0.15 -15.38 18-May Portland ML 0.56 1 0.79 78.57 . Portland -1.5 0.53 0.25 -0.53 -52.83 19-May Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.49 0 -1.00 -100.00 . Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.27 0 -1.00 -100.00 20-May Dallas ML 0.45 0.72 0.60 60.00 . May Total . . . 151.55 . April . . . 752.81 . Total [td] 904.36​

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[KVB]

The Lab likes Toronto +6.5 in the WNBA but the Trader isn't so sure it's patient enough to go to market pre game.

I'm going to hold off even though there's a chance Toronto does press early.

One issue is that I waited too long to to get this to the Desk.

The Tor +6.5 is .54 cents at the market but was just .51 cents a couple of hours ago. A decent sportsbook play earlier, but I didn't take it a step further to the desk.

 

[turbobets]

I rarely see Kalshi with the best odds. Unless you are one of their official market makers I just don't see the value. My limit orders almost never get filled. Honestly these prediction markets have been a big let down because they are not a true exchange where everyone can participate. They will not let you make an offer that beats the market makers odds.

 

[KVB]

I rarely see Kalshi with the best odds. Unless you are one of their official market makers I just don't see the value. My limit orders almost never get filled. Honestly these prediction markets have been a big let down because they are not a true exchange where everyone can participate. They will not let you make an offer that beats the market makers odds.

The advantage is in making the market. The vast majority of my trades are as a market maker.

This thread is much more about LIVE trading.

If you're showing up pregame before game time, just line shopping, some efficency could be stamped out, but not always. It depends on the timing and sport.

Small commission when making the market too, another advantage.

The biggest advantage is that there is no risk management to limit or ban us, with the low commission just behind that.

 

[KVB]

I rarely pay commission on golf trades as I always on the market making side.

When I'm not, it's because I'm selling on the BID to get out quick.

 

[KVB]

he Lab likes Toronto +6.5 in the WNBA but the Trader isn't so sure it's patient enough to go to market pre game.

I'm going to hold off even though there's a chance Toronto does press early.

Quick start by Minn sends the +6.5 down to .40 cents.

If I bought now, I would need that back door cover, and possibly have to wait all game. Toronto should make a run, just not sure when.

I'll hold off for now.

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes Toronto +6.5 in the WNBA but the Trader isn't so sure it's patient enough to go to market pre game.

I'm going to hold off even though there's a chance Toronto does press early.

May have dodged a bullet here.

Not saying there can't be a second half comeback, and the +6.5 is only .08 cents, but I think I'll stay out of this one.

The -2 unit loss on Tuesday was because the beginning of the 3rd quarter went south so fast I couldn't get out.

Feels like that's what would have happened today in the 1st quarter, had I been in it.

 

[jjgold]

I’ve watched about five minutes of the WNBA this year and I don’t see it increasing anytime soon

 

[KVB]

I’ve watched about five minutes of the WNBA this year and I don’t see it increasing anytime soon

 

[subaru80]

I know basketball a little. It seems like Minnesota has been underperforming and was due to break out. Not sure why the lab wanted to fade them today

 

[KVB]

I know basketball a little. It seems like Minnesota has been underperforming and was due to break out. Not sure why the lab wanted to fade them today

Tonight is far less about a Minnesota breakout and more about the Toronto failure.

We don't make decisions on things like "due to break out" but recognize that the public might.

There's a reason I passed, but there's also a reason this line dropped from 6.5 and even a high of 7.5 to 6.

There is no doubt that tonight's result will swing the market a bit and lead to an advantage play that will pay later and in these give and take markets, it's good to have successful pass on the losers.