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MLB Pick for Wednesday: Matinee Pick on White Sox vs. Mariners in Emerald City
We dropped to 7-10 with our MLB write-ups with a loss on a dismal Tuesday, as we also fell to +17.86 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look for redemption on Wednesday with a matinee play in the White Sox vs. Mariners matchup at 4:10 ET.
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, May 20th – 4:10pm ET
The White Sox and the Mariners have split the first two games of this 3-game series from the Emerald City, and the rubber match takes place this afternoon at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Emerson Hancock has been a revelation for the M’s this season with his new arsenal, while Sean Burke has mediocre frontline stats for Chicago. Still, the latter has enough promising metrics for us to back the Under in this contest.
Real Improvement for Hancock
Those of you that have been following us this season know that we like Hancock because his vast improvement is the result of a new pitch mix. After never posting an ERA lower than 4.50 or an xFIP lower than 4.61 over his first three Major League seasons, he comes in at 3-2 with 3.02 ERA and an excellent 3.14 xFIP that ranks 16th best in the majors. And his second loss last time out was unlucky, as he allowed just one run and five hits with six strikeouts in six innings.
Emerson has a superb K/BB ratio of 9.39/1.68 per nine innings with both of those rates being career bests, and he has combined that ratio with a good 44.6% groundball rate despite lessening the use of his sinker. That sinker was his most frequent pitch last season, but that honor now goes to his 95.0 MPH fastball, and he has also increased the use of his slider, which is shrewd considering its 123 rating in Stuff+.
In fact, he is over 100 in +Stats across the board this year with an overall Stuff+ of 107, Location+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 104, all of which are easily career highs. This has us believing the improvement mainly due to the new mix of pitches is legitimate.
Furthermore, it is encouraging that Hancock is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in the league in ERA at 3.13 while also sitting in the Top 10 in xFIP.
Vast Arsenal for Burke
Burke comes in with a losing record at 2-3 and a 4.10 ERA, which lines up quite closely with his 4.04 xFIP. However, he does have some nice peripherals that suggest some positive regression is on the way, starting with slashing his walk rate by more than half, to an acceptable 2.05/9 from distressing 4.22/9 last year. That improved control is validated by a career best Location+ of 106.
Sean’s fastball is also at a lifetime best of 112 on Stuff+, but that is only part of the story as he has added a new cutter this season, giving him a vast 6-pitch arsenal that can keep batters off balance and unable to just sit on the heater. That has led to a simultaneous increase in his soft contact rate to 17.7% from 16.5% last year and a stark decrease in his hard contact rate to a career low 29.3% from 35.6% in 2025.
And of course, all pitchers get a bump when pitching in the most pitching-friendly stadium in baseball per Baseball Savant, with T-Mobile having a run suppression of around 17%.
Combining Hancock’s improvement, Burke being a candidate for positive regression and how this stadium plays, we are betting on the Under this afternoon in Seattle.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Bet105
We dropped to 7-10 with our MLB write-ups with a loss on a dismal Tuesday, as we also fell to +17.86 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look for redemption on Wednesday with a matinee play in the White Sox vs. Mariners matchup at 4:10 ET.
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, May 20th – 4:10pm ET
The White Sox and the Mariners have split the first two games of this 3-game series from the Emerald City, and the rubber match takes place this afternoon at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Emerson Hancock has been a revelation for the M’s this season with his new arsenal, while Sean Burke has mediocre frontline stats for Chicago. Still, the latter has enough promising metrics for us to back the Under in this contest.
Real Improvement for Hancock
Those of you that have been following us this season know that we like Hancock because his vast improvement is the result of a new pitch mix. After never posting an ERA lower than 4.50 or an xFIP lower than 4.61 over his first three Major League seasons, he comes in at 3-2 with 3.02 ERA and an excellent 3.14 xFIP that ranks 16th best in the majors. And his second loss last time out was unlucky, as he allowed just one run and five hits with six strikeouts in six innings.
Emerson has a superb K/BB ratio of 9.39/1.68 per nine innings with both of those rates being career bests, and he has combined that ratio with a good 44.6% groundball rate despite lessening the use of his sinker. That sinker was his most frequent pitch last season, but that honor now goes to his 95.0 MPH fastball, and he has also increased the use of his slider, which is shrewd considering its 123 rating in Stuff+.
In fact, he is over 100 in +Stats across the board this year with an overall Stuff+ of 107, Location+ of 108 and Pitching+ of 104, all of which are easily career highs. This has us believing the improvement mainly due to the new mix of pitches is legitimate.
Furthermore, it is encouraging that Hancock is backed by a bullpen that ranks fourth in the league in ERA at 3.13 while also sitting in the Top 10 in xFIP.
Vast Arsenal for Burke
Burke comes in with a losing record at 2-3 and a 4.10 ERA, which lines up quite closely with his 4.04 xFIP. However, he does have some nice peripherals that suggest some positive regression is on the way, starting with slashing his walk rate by more than half, to an acceptable 2.05/9 from distressing 4.22/9 last year. That improved control is validated by a career best Location+ of 106.
Sean’s fastball is also at a lifetime best of 112 on Stuff+, but that is only part of the story as he has added a new cutter this season, giving him a vast 6-pitch arsenal that can keep batters off balance and unable to just sit on the heater. That has led to a simultaneous increase in his soft contact rate to 17.7% from 16.5% last year and a stark decrease in his hard contact rate to a career low 29.3% from 35.6% in 2025.
And of course, all pitchers get a bump when pitching in the most pitching-friendly stadium in baseball per Baseball Savant, with T-Mobile having a run suppression of around 17%.
Combining Hancock’s improvement, Burke being a candidate for positive regression and how this stadium plays, we are betting on the Under this afternoon in Seattle.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Bet105
