JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[jjgold]

KVB IF I HAD CASH $1000 A GAME CONTEST
20 plays in 2 months

 

[KVB]

Boy that OVER 177.5 in the first WNBA game, Min v Dal is looking cheap at .35 cents.

I'm holding off for now, but can see a push back towards that OVER, perhaps late in the game.

It doesn't feel patient, so I'll hold off.

Lab sees this first game potentially going to OT to bring the OVER 177.5

This OVER 177.5 sits at .40 cents at halftime.

I think that could go higher and look for it to go higher, but not trading it.

If we get that push, and even that OT, then I think I know where the market stands and I will pull trigger in the next game as the probabilities will likely be ripe.

 

[KVB]

20 plays in 2 months

Seems arbitrary.

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes the UNDER in NY/POR WNBA at the current line, the Trader is weighing the options at the Desk.

This UNDER 175.5 has moved off of .50 to .51

It could get more expensive as we get closer. I don't like that there are only 3 different Totals avalable on Kalshi and the Polymarket options seemed better earlier this afternoon.

That's one of the reasons I didn't take this play earlier to curate.

WNBA has some volume and options issues, requiring more patience to play.

I think the volume issues will work themselves out as the season progesses.

 

[KVB]

Boy that OVER 177.5 in the first WNBA game, Min v Dal is looking cheap at .35 cents.

This OVER 177.5 sits at .40 cents at halftime.

I think that could go higher and look for it to go higher, but not trading it.

This has broken the game high of .54 cents and has hit .81 cents inside two minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

 

[KVB]

Boy that OVER 177.5 in the first WNBA game, Min v Dal is looking cheap at .35 cents.

I'm holding off for now, but can see a push back towards that OVER, perhaps late in the game.

It doesn't feel patient, so I'll hold off.

Lab sees this first game potentially going to OT to bring the OVER 177.5

This OVER 177.5 sits at .40 cents at halftime.

I think that could go higher and look for it to go higher, but not trading it.

If we get that push, and even that OT, then I think I know where the market stands and I will pull trigger in the next game as the probabilities will likely be ripe.

Not so sure the 3rd quarter push is late enough in the game for us here. If I had been in at .40 cents or so, I would sell at this point.

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes the UNDER in NY/POR WNBA at the current line, the Trader is weighing the options at the Desk.

This UNDER 175.5 has moved off of .50 to .51

It could get more expensive as we get closer

This line around the world has dropped from 176 and 175.5 to 174 and even 173.5.

Kalshi is dealing a .52 cent bid on the UNDER.

 

[KVB]

Not so sure the 3rd quarter push is late enough in the game for us here. If I had been in at .40 cents or so, I would sell at this point.

This even dropped to .50 cents and back on pace for the line.

Remember, I'm ok with, and even predicted, that drop.

This allows for the "late" OVER that I was originally looking for to possibly come.

 

[KVB]

Scoring in the first game has slowed, inside 2 minutes left and the LIVE line is right below the 177.5 and is .44 cents on Kalshi, down form a high of the upper 80s.

All that's left now is for the game to hit OT.

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes the UNDER in NY/POR WNBA at the current line, the Trader is weighing the options at the Desk.

This UNDER 175.5 has moved off of .50 to .51

It could get more expensive as we get closer

Kalshi is dealing a .52 cent bid on the UNDER.

This UNDER has now moved to .53 cents.

 

[KVB]

If we get that push, and even that OT, then I think I know where the market stands and I will pull trigger in the next game as the probabilities will likely be ripe.

So now a definite UNDER pace in the first game, with a score of 88-85 with 17 seconds left and we will need OT to bring the OVER.

 

[KVB]

Talk about a late OVER if at all, maybe no OT, but still only 176 points with 14 seconds left.

I may be priced out of the UNDER I was looking for in NY/POR

 

[KVB]

Boy that OVER 177.5 in the first WNBA game, Min v Dal is looking cheap at .35 cents.

I'm holding off for now, but can see a push back towards that OVER, perhaps late in the game.

If we get that push, and even that OT, then I think I know where the market stands and I will pull trigger in the next game as the probabilities will likely be ripe.

Not so sure the 3rd quarter push is late enough in the game for us here. If I had been in at .40 cents or so, I would sell at this point.

First game finished UNDER.

There is no trade in the 2nd game.

Fukk.

 

[KVB]

This NY

If we get that push, and even that OT, then I think I know where the market stands and I will pull trigger in the next game as the probabilities will likely be ripe.

This NY/POR game could still go UNDER, but the probabilities are no longer ripe and I will pass on the trade.

 

[KVB]

So a lot of posts for no trade.

I wanted to show a bit about how the best LIVE Trading Desk in the world develops a trading plan before the WNBA action starts and then stays patient and disciplined to stick to that plan.

As the first game was about to end, with a 176 score and the trailing team looking to make it 178, the UNDER in the 2nd game was already in the mid 60s. It takes discipline not to have FOMO there to get in.

The UNDER 175.5 in the second game is now up to .80 cents, but there is a lot of game left.

I'd rather take a cheap OVER now but it's a pass.

 

[KVB]

Full disclosure, I do have the UNDER 176 in the sportsbook.

So I root for the UNDER, but did not Trade it today.

 

[BigJay]

So a lot of posts for no trade.

I wanted to show a bit about how the best LIVE Trading Desk in the world develops a trading plan before the WNBA action starts and then stays patient and disciplined to stick to that plan.

As the first game was about to end, with a 176 score and the trailing team looking to make it 178, the UNDER in the 2nd game was already in the mid 60s. It takes discipline not to have FOMO there to get in.

The UNDER 175.5 in the second game is now up to .80 cents, but there is a lot of game left.

I'd rather take a cheap OVER now but it's a pass.

 

[BigJay]

Full disclosure, I do have the UNDER 176 in the sportsbook.

So I root for the UNDER, but did not Trade it today.

Was telling Jerky even when I’m betting at Bookmaker, etc., I’m thinking about your philosophy that’s made me profits lately.

Grabbed Montreal down a goal +171 live to win $910.

When they took a two-goal lead heading to the final period I could only make another $124 profit. No way I was going to risk $1,315 (original bet $532) to win another $124. Had to cash out for almost $800 in profit even though I would have ultimately won pretty easily if I’d have let it ride.

But there’s no point in doing that for that much money. Maybe if it was for a few bucks…

 

[KVB]

But there’s no point in doing that for that much money. Maybe if it was for a few bucks…

I've talked in this thread about playing looser when less money is on the line saying that truthfully, we should avoid that and play the same no matter what's on the line.

I incurred losses in this thread at times I would have sold if more money was on the line.

I think that is a trading mistake, but it's a difficult mental obstacle to overcome, that's for sure. Have had many discussions with my wife about it.

 

[jjgold]

I didn’t even know Portland had a team. I don’t really watch the WNBA. I know what’s going on, but not much interest.