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MLB Pick for Friday: Typical Slugfest Expected in Coors Field
We improved to 3-6 with our MLB write-ups with a nice winner on Wednesday, and we are a much better +11.44 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We head to the Rocky Mountains on Friday with a play on the Braves vs. Rockies matchup.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, May 1st – 8:40pm ET
We are expecting a nice old-styled slugfest in the altitude of Denver on Friday. We are backing the Over when Grant Holmes and the Braves pay a visit to Jose Quintana and the Rockies at Coors Field.
Deceptive ERA for Holmes
Holmes comes in with a 2-1 record and 3.62 ERA through six starts covering 32.1 innings, but that ERA appears undeserved. His xFIP is about a full run higher at 4.61 and he has scored highly in the Luck Stats with a low .220 BABIP allowed and a high 81.3% strand rate. His command ratio also belies the ERA, with his K/BB standing at a very weak 6.96/3.90 per nine innings.
Maybe worst of all, Grant is in the top third (or bottom third depending on how you look at it) in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings in home run rate allowed (1.39/9) and HR/FB ratio (12.8%). You do not need us to tell you the added significance of that when pitching in Colorado.
Those rates do not look fluky either, as his groundball rate is down quite noticeably to 41.7% from 45.4% last year, and much of the extra air contact has been hard with a hard-contact rate of 38.5%, up from an already above average 34.4% in 2025.
Holmes is facing a Colorado offense that is surprisingly eighth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at home at 118, and yes, that metric is ballpark-adjusted.
Quintana Worst Pitcher So Far?
Meanwhile, a case can be made that Quintana has been the worst starting pitcher in the league so far this season. He is 1-2 through four starts, and his bad 4.91 ERA actually pales in comparison to his ungodly 6.45 xFIP. The saving grace is that those numbers are over only 18.1 innings and Jose has never been this bad in the past.
Then again, he is now 37 years old, and this is his first season with the Rockies, thus pitching more regularly in the altitude. More disturbing is his walk rate of 5.40/9 is higher than his strikeout rate of 4.42/9, which cannot be blamed on pitching at a mile high. He also has a career-low groundball rate of 31.1% in the early going, which again is not ideal in this stadium. And he has the uglier home run rate allowed between these starters at 1.96/9, albeit over fewer innings.
The southpaw must now deal with an Atlanta offense that is seventh in the league in wRC+ against left-handers at 111.
This is a matchup of two starters that have profiled as flyball pitchers with a lot of those balls leaving the yard so far this season. This has us betting on the Over in Colorado.
NOTE: While this Over is our official write-up play here, we did also make a value play on the Rockies at +167 in a potential back-and-forth affair.
THE PICK
Over 11 -105 at Heritage
We improved to 3-6 with our MLB write-ups with a nice winner on Wednesday, and we are a much better +11.44 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We head to the Rocky Mountains on Friday with a play on the Braves vs. Rockies matchup.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, May 1st – 8:40pm ET
We are expecting a nice old-styled slugfest in the altitude of Denver on Friday. We are backing the Over when Grant Holmes and the Braves pay a visit to Jose Quintana and the Rockies at Coors Field.
Deceptive ERA for Holmes
Holmes comes in with a 2-1 record and 3.62 ERA through six starts covering 32.1 innings, but that ERA appears undeserved. His xFIP is about a full run higher at 4.61 and he has scored highly in the Luck Stats with a low .220 BABIP allowed and a high 81.3% strand rate. His command ratio also belies the ERA, with his K/BB standing at a very weak 6.96/3.90 per nine innings.
Maybe worst of all, Grant is in the top third (or bottom third depending on how you look at it) in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings in home run rate allowed (1.39/9) and HR/FB ratio (12.8%). You do not need us to tell you the added significance of that when pitching in Colorado.
Those rates do not look fluky either, as his groundball rate is down quite noticeably to 41.7% from 45.4% last year, and much of the extra air contact has been hard with a hard-contact rate of 38.5%, up from an already above average 34.4% in 2025.
Holmes is facing a Colorado offense that is surprisingly eighth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at home at 118, and yes, that metric is ballpark-adjusted.
Quintana Worst Pitcher So Far?
Meanwhile, a case can be made that Quintana has been the worst starting pitcher in the league so far this season. He is 1-2 through four starts, and his bad 4.91 ERA actually pales in comparison to his ungodly 6.45 xFIP. The saving grace is that those numbers are over only 18.1 innings and Jose has never been this bad in the past.
Then again, he is now 37 years old, and this is his first season with the Rockies, thus pitching more regularly in the altitude. More disturbing is his walk rate of 5.40/9 is higher than his strikeout rate of 4.42/9, which cannot be blamed on pitching at a mile high. He also has a career-low groundball rate of 31.1% in the early going, which again is not ideal in this stadium. And he has the uglier home run rate allowed between these starters at 1.96/9, albeit over fewer innings.
The southpaw must now deal with an Atlanta offense that is seventh in the league in wRC+ against left-handers at 111.
This is a matchup of two starters that have profiled as flyball pitchers with a lot of those balls leaving the yard so far this season. This has us betting on the Over in Colorado.
NOTE: While this Over is our official write-up play here, we did also make a value play on the Rockies at +167 in a potential back-and-forth affair.
THE PICK
Over 11 -105 at Heritage
Just need the Rockies to win now
