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MLB Pick for Tuesday: Not Many Markers in Minneapolis Today
We are 2-5 with our MLB write-ups this year despite being +11.77 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to begin to balance things out on Tuesday with our play in the Mariners vs. Twins matchup at Target Field.
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, April 28th – 7:40pm ET
We are expecting a good old-fashioned pitching duel at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN on Tuesday. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Joe Ryan and the Twins host Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
New Knuckle-Curve for Ryan
Ryan is still just 29 years old, and he has been very consistent in his career, posting sub 4.00 xFIPs in four of his first five seasons in the majors and sub 4.00 ERAs the last two years. Well, here we go again as he comes in 2-2 but with a 3.90 ERA and 3.98 xFIP through six starts covering 32.1 innings.
He has his typically good K/BB ratio of 9.19/2.23 per nine innings, with those rates supported by his 11.9% swinging strike rate and 108 Location+, with the latter being an improvement over his career figure of 104.
Moreover, Ryan has added a fifth pitch to his arsenal this season with a knuckle-curve, and it is not as if he is only throwing it just a few times per game as he has used it 11.9% of the time. And that new pitch has already garnered a whopping 122 rating on Stuff+, although to be fair there are not as many other pitchers that use it, so the 122 is over a relatively small pool. But still, it does show that it is one of the best in the league already in its first year of use.
Keep in mind that is while still maintaining a 117 Stuff+ on his fastball and 111 on his sinker, so we look for the already decent ERA to only improve going forward.
Great Control for Gilbert
As for Gilbert, his frontline stats have him at 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA over 33 innings, but we see him as a prime candidate for positive regression. In fact, he has the better xFIP in this matchup at 3.44, nearly a full run lower than an ERA that is skewed by an unlucky .360 BABIP. He also has his typically great command ratio.
He is striking out over a batter per inning with the K-Rate at 9.55/9 while maintaining a walk rate below two at 1.91/9. Remember that Logan had walk rates below 2.00/9 in both 2023 and 2024, and even during an off year last season, that rate was still a good 2.16/9. And while excellent control is nothing new for Gilbert, he has also had a spike in his fastball velocity to 95.5 MPH.
That has led to a fastball Stuff+ of 100 this year after that figure was down to 96 last season, keying an overall Stuff+ of 107 so far this season along with a Location+ of 108 and being among the league leaders in Pitching+ at 114. Thus, we can ignore the inflated ERA as, like with Ryan, we can only see that figure dropping the rest of the way.
So, with both starters probably in line for “good” regression, we are betting on the Under in this matchup on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Heritage
We are 2-5 with our MLB write-ups this year despite being +11.77 overall in our MLB Picks thread. We look to begin to balance things out on Tuesday with our play in the Mariners vs. Twins matchup at Target Field.
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, April 28th – 7:40pm ET
We are expecting a good old-fashioned pitching duel at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN on Tuesday. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Joe Ryan and the Twins host Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
New Knuckle-Curve for Ryan
Ryan is still just 29 years old, and he has been very consistent in his career, posting sub 4.00 xFIPs in four of his first five seasons in the majors and sub 4.00 ERAs the last two years. Well, here we go again as he comes in 2-2 but with a 3.90 ERA and 3.98 xFIP through six starts covering 32.1 innings.
He has his typically good K/BB ratio of 9.19/2.23 per nine innings, with those rates supported by his 11.9% swinging strike rate and 108 Location+, with the latter being an improvement over his career figure of 104.
Moreover, Ryan has added a fifth pitch to his arsenal this season with a knuckle-curve, and it is not as if he is only throwing it just a few times per game as he has used it 11.9% of the time. And that new pitch has already garnered a whopping 122 rating on Stuff+, although to be fair there are not as many other pitchers that use it, so the 122 is over a relatively small pool. But still, it does show that it is one of the best in the league already in its first year of use.
Keep in mind that is while still maintaining a 117 Stuff+ on his fastball and 111 on his sinker, so we look for the already decent ERA to only improve going forward.
Great Control for Gilbert
As for Gilbert, his frontline stats have him at 1-3 with a 4.36 ERA over 33 innings, but we see him as a prime candidate for positive regression. In fact, he has the better xFIP in this matchup at 3.44, nearly a full run lower than an ERA that is skewed by an unlucky .360 BABIP. He also has his typically great command ratio.
He is striking out over a batter per inning with the K-Rate at 9.55/9 while maintaining a walk rate below two at 1.91/9. Remember that Logan had walk rates below 2.00/9 in both 2023 and 2024, and even during an off year last season, that rate was still a good 2.16/9. And while excellent control is nothing new for Gilbert, he has also had a spike in his fastball velocity to 95.5 MPH.
That has led to a fastball Stuff+ of 100 this year after that figure was down to 96 last season, keying an overall Stuff+ of 107 so far this season along with a Location+ of 108 and being among the league leaders in Pitching+ at 114. Thus, we can ignore the inflated ERA as, like with Ryan, we can only see that figure dropping the rest of the way.
So, with both starters probably in line for “good” regression, we are betting on the Under in this matchup on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Under 7.5 -111 at Heritage
