JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[jjgold]

I was watching golf all day. You really need a separate computer just for Kalshi . I did click a bet on the API just to make sure it was working and it went through.

 

[KVB]

Yeah I was pretty much taking the day off until I got some big bright idea in the UFC.

I got away with one as the fighter ended up losing anyway.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Yeah I was pretty much taking the day off until I got some big bright idea in the UFC.

I got away with one as the fighter ended up losing anyway.

As you already know taking a break to refresh is a real thing

Back at it today I assume?

 

[jjgold]

All right, the golf gonna start get on the screen everyone’s bunch together

KVB we are learning about container and docker environments this week

 

[KVB]

As you already know taking a break to refresh is a real thing

Back at it today I assume?

All right, the golf gonna start get on the screen everyone’s bunch together

KVB we are learning about container and docker environments this week

We'll see about today.

I have Reed Top20 and if he starts to fail, I'll sell.

For MLB we have to see what develops. Need to get these early games underway.

 

[KVB]

Patrick Reed Top20 @ .40 cents

Closed this for .81 cents @ a 102.5% profit.

No more golf positions.

Reed is fukking up and the spreads are just so jumpy as this is trading thin. I'm out before I can't get out.

Could have done this at .90 cents, but I suck.

 

[KVB]

Both the Mets and Yankees are down early, I see one or both of those turning.

But the Trader doesn't like the entries.

 

[jjgold]

Young winner

 

[KVB]

Both the Mets and Yankees are down early, I see one or both of those turning.

But the Trader doesn't like the entries.

The Lab was wrong here, but the Trader knew it was jacked.

Fri and Sat may have been days off, but today was so far No Trade Day and rightfully so as the options so far were shit.

There's still a night game, and the Lab is gathering information now, so we'll see if the No Trade Day holds.

 

[KVB]

A bit of a past post here but the Lab has up on the whiteboard that the CHW lead over KC was bullshit but KC has already flipped it in the bottom of the 3rd.

I messed up there. There was a good price for KC below .40 cents,

Outside of the New York teams, the whiteboard is starting to show some right answers.

 

[KVB]

the whiteboard is starting to show some right answers.

Tough to narrow things down from a trading perspective, even the last As trades I said it felt more like a spoortsbook play.

One option I do have, especially with the overall pace of MLB, is to divide up that roll into smaller units and take more trades daily, as I should be able to gain an edge.

That's not really in the Trader's current philosophy, it's not what I've built around this year.

 

[KVB]

There are many ways to approach and use the exchanges, form arbs to layoffs, to you name it.

But in this thread it's about fast growth and accurate trading. It's about winnign daily and working the formula that nearly elimiantes variance.

So the exchange funds are divided up by the different desks that can churn the funds.

For the Summer Trading Fund, I would ratather put the whole account on one single play, than divide it up to spread across the whiteboard suggestions.

Hitting all the whiteboard suggestions is more of a sportsbook thing or a buy and hold at the exchange with better prices.

 

[KVB]

Finally, I have missed or lagged on a few plays recently, including UFC last night, both the trade I took and the one I missed.

Ever since Hoops ended, I've been a little hesitant, even with the lower unit size.

That needs to end as I am under treeemendous pressure here to succeed like I have for the first quarter of this year.

WNBA and NBA playoffs should produce some opportunities, but where I need to ply my trade is in daily MLB.

I need to dig deeper, work harder, and get this bankroll off of the scared money stage and back into the war zone.

This isn't betting, I already do that.

This is Trading!!!

 

[Wagerallsports]

So the exchange funds are divided up by the different desks that can churn the funds.

For the Summer Trading Fund, I would ratather put the whole account on one single play, than divide it up to spread across the whiteboard suggestions.

Hitting all the whiteboard suggestions is more of a sportsbook thing or a buy and hold at the exchange with better prices.

Interesting I didn’t know that part until now thanks for sharing

 

[jjgold]

KVB don’t drift

 

[KVB]

Interesting I didn’t know that until now thanks for sharing

All I'm really saying is that the account is divided like a pie chart. For the slice of pie that is the Trading in this thread, I would bet the whole slice over dividing it up further for a lot of trades.

That means there needs to be accuracy.

If you do think of it like that, with the pie slice for trading, then every percentage profit and loss is the entire Trading account.

Each Trade is an all in, but not really all in because you would set a stop to get out, not just be stuck to zero, like in the books.

There's a lot to that, including practicing trading, having a clear plan on when your getting out, both at profit and loss.

But that's how you grow a small account.

 

[KVB]

that's how you grow a small account.

You patiently select a play, then buy as many contracts as your account balance allows. Then you watch that fukker carefully with your finger on the trigger.

Sometimes you get a little bump immediately, say 10%. Get green and get out as growing the entire account 10% isn't so bad, beats a lot of other markets that day.

Don't over trade, plan carefully, do the homework, and don't be afraid to get out when it doesn't work out.

Once you build some confidence, like I had with Hoops this year, and you're hitting daily, then things can really grow.

I already miss NCAAF and NCAAB.

 

[theriver55]

you got to hope it stays in play and the powers that be don't ban it?

 

[KVB]

KVB don’t drift

Yeah, hence the couple of days off.

You are right here, I could start focusing on all the other ways to attack the exchange, but I need to stick to what I'm developing here. The other ways jsut come up as usual.

That dashboard sure would be helpful with MLB. There is a lot tedious work that is like normal capping, but an added twist that I don't currently have the computer set up to do, meaning there is a lot of manual work on my end.

With MLB that can get out of hand quick as the mountain of evidence and stats just grows daily.

 

[KVB]

you got to hope it stays in play and the powers that be don't ban it?

We have the courts so far on our side, so that's good.

Real issue is how this gets treated tax wise next year. In filing this year, I set the stage for a few different options in case the IRS or the gubment does make it clear how it will be treated.

The biggest problem, and the first instance I'm talking about in my signature, is the Big Beautiful Bill.

It made being a professional gambler more expensive, so I'm trying to get around that. My final option, if no other works out, will be to continue to file next year as a professional gambler, and eat the 10% cut in writing off losses.

Otherwise, I'm going mark to market as as trader and with that still have options open as to whether these get filed as futures contracts or straight ordinary income.

I'll probably draw up a new LLC just for trading on the exchanges as well.

I'm sure all this shit will cause an audit for the 2026 or 2027 or later, lol.