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JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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22,053
Picked up Kentucky +7.5 @ .51 cents.

Already out of this trade for .48 cents @ a -5.88% loss

I fumbled the orders here and no longer own the 7.5.

Still like the spread, but don't own it now.

No open positions.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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22,053
I'm being honest here at what happens at the Trading Desk.

When I make mistakes, I have to own up to them.

I'm behaving as if there is a live stream running.

I've mentioned before this thread is about accountability and it's important I keep it as such, and not about winning or forcing plays.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
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84,009
The thing about patience and discipline as skill sets is that you can master them you can harden and become ice cold in the veins, but no matter how well we master and conrol them, we are still human.

It's still a battle and emotions can lead to all kinds of problems with patience and discipline, from short circuiting rational thinking to going on full tilt.

It's a lot like the spiritual battle. It's a struggle of ups and downs for the entire journey, whether you started as child or found God late in life.

There's a reason I used to see 85+ year old people who have been to church their whole lives still in Sunday evening bible study get togethers sharing stories, struggles, and learning.

Because of the unique nature of the human condition we can never stop fighting the battles of patience, discipline, and spirituality.

Think about it.
Good post

One of our Pastor preaches on this regularly

All about training your mind
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
But those first Kentucky positions already had you ahead of the game correct?

Sorry I try not to chime in too often, want to limit your distractions as much as possible

Yeah, but gave back some of it. Had I held those Kentucky positions a little longer would’ve had a lot more.

They ended up getting ahead by quite a bit early on.

Definitely was prepared to sell that last position before I end up negative on the day, which is why I was kind of bummed in case they would come back.

In the end they’re getting destroyed, lol
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
KVB I need to talk with you about balance

We'll get balance when the NCAAB season is over.

I will admit, I'm trying force scalps here.

Maybe getting a little too aggressive this weekend.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
The Lab is bullish on Tenn and Virginia made a run so I actually had a limit order fill down there and got notified.

Didn't see that coming, might scalp it.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Here's s Kalshi page with the number of Upsets in the round of 32.

This is graded by seeding, not moneyline.

Texas should be the only one so far, as Nebraska was not an upset by seeding...

upset32.png

These are by seedings not moneylines.

So Tennesse and St. John's wins would count as upsets.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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22,053
I did it.

Picked up 4+ UPSETS in Rd of 32 for .59 cents.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
I had to edit that last post, the price ws .59 cents, not .62 cents.

I was looking at the wrong number.

Tenn, St. John's, Texas Tech, UCLA could all help get there.

This mistake in posting the price could have to do with fatigue. I need a rest and some lunch.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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22,053
Yesterday's count right?

Yes, Texas is in the bag from yesterday.

As far as I can tell, that's all we've go so far but with the 2+ UPSETS there are no contracts for a counterparty if you buy YES.

I'm assuming St John's score is the reason 2+ isn't available.

3+ is at .91 cents for YES

4+might be tough to get, now that I think about it. But it would have to be a pretty cold market if it doesn't happen.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
I figure the 4+ prop will basically have me in a piece of later games.

Even Iowa could knock off Florida. Feels like a bubbe for an UPSET is starting to grow.

Not sure if I'll be able to get out of that 4+ later, lol, so in retrospect I may have put myself in a tough position.

lol
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
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22,053
Tennessee ml @ .51 cents
4+ UPSETS in Rd of 32 for .59 cents

Bumping for posting.

Tenn up 36-31 in what is essentially a pickem game so there is volatility on the runs.

We like Tenn, but might sell here as teh beginning of the 2nd half can be unpredictable.
 

KVB

KVB

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Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Tennessee ml @ .51 cents

Closed this for .65 cents @ a 27.5% profit.

Took some discipline to close this, we do like Tenn, but I sense I am forcing things so the Trader is trying to tighten down and get out when green.

May dip back in as the game goes on, if things add up. If Tenn starts to blow them out, I'll try not to go on tilt, lol.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
22,053
Boy, I'm glad I didn't get sucked into that Kansas moneyline. It seemed like a .12 cent to .20 cent or more move was capturable a couple of times.

Of course, as I type this teh .08 cents goes to .15 at a 6 point game.

Kansas could still steal this game, it seems. That would fukk up the UPSET prop, lol.
 
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