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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Gamecocks to Down Blue Hens in Conference USA
We are 45-38-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick Wednesday. We dive into Conference USA Thursday with a play in Delaware at Jacksonville State on CBS Sports Network.
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Thursday, February 26th – 7:00pm ET
It is a typically light Thursday card in terms of power-conference matchups, with only one such contest on the entire board. However, we do feel there is an undervalued favorite in a nationally televised Conference USA contest, where we are laying the points on Jacksonville State at home hosting Delaware on CBSSN.
Gamecocks Better in Both Ends
The first thing that caught out attention in this game was that our model yielded a line of Jacksonville State -9.2 despite them being under .500 overall at 13-14 and a nondescript 8-8 inside C-USA. Furthermore, they come in on a 4-game losing streak. However, a closer look reveals that they have edges on both ends of the court and Delaware represents a class drop compared to the teams they faced during the losing streak.
The Gamecocks were very competitive in their last game on the road visiting the second-place team in the conference in Sam Houston State, covering the spread in a narrow 82-78 loss. They scored those 78 points against a SHSU team ranked second during conference play in defensive efficiency, and now drop down to face a Delaware defense ranked dead last in that metric in league play.
Granted, JSU is right at the national average on eFG% at 51.4%, but they can build a lead with their 3-point shooting as they are third in C-USA there at 37.4%, and they do not figure to face much pressure with the Blue Hens dead last in the conference in turnover percentage forced.
Moreover, the Gamecocks do an excellent job of getting to the foul line, ranking 20th nationally and first in the conference in FTA/FGA ratio.
Sloppy Offense and No Second Chances
Delaware stands at an ugly 9-18 overall and 5-11 in league play, and they have shortcomings on both ends of the court. We have already touched on their passive defense, and the news is even worse on the offensive end.
The Hens rank 248th in offensive efficiency, as they are plagued by sloppy ballhandling and a lack of second opportunities. To wit, they rank 268th in offensive turnover percentage, which when combined with their lack of turnovers forced defensively should result in a huge turnover advantage for Jacksonville State in this game. As for the lack of extended possessions, Delaware is 363rd out of 365 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage!
Furthermore, they are facing a Gamecocks’ defense ranked third in the conference in eFG% allowed.
Thus, we see a Delaware team ranked 344th in the country in scoring at 67.6 points per game continuing to struggle in that department. We are betting on Jacksonville State to score enough against an inefficient defense to win this game by double digits.
THE PICK
Jacksonville State -7.5 -108 at Heritage
We are 45-38-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick Wednesday. We dive into Conference USA Thursday with a play in Delaware at Jacksonville State on CBS Sports Network.
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Thursday, February 26th – 7:00pm ET
It is a typically light Thursday card in terms of power-conference matchups, with only one such contest on the entire board. However, we do feel there is an undervalued favorite in a nationally televised Conference USA contest, where we are laying the points on Jacksonville State at home hosting Delaware on CBSSN.
Gamecocks Better in Both Ends
The first thing that caught out attention in this game was that our model yielded a line of Jacksonville State -9.2 despite them being under .500 overall at 13-14 and a nondescript 8-8 inside C-USA. Furthermore, they come in on a 4-game losing streak. However, a closer look reveals that they have edges on both ends of the court and Delaware represents a class drop compared to the teams they faced during the losing streak.
The Gamecocks were very competitive in their last game on the road visiting the second-place team in the conference in Sam Houston State, covering the spread in a narrow 82-78 loss. They scored those 78 points against a SHSU team ranked second during conference play in defensive efficiency, and now drop down to face a Delaware defense ranked dead last in that metric in league play.
Granted, JSU is right at the national average on eFG% at 51.4%, but they can build a lead with their 3-point shooting as they are third in C-USA there at 37.4%, and they do not figure to face much pressure with the Blue Hens dead last in the conference in turnover percentage forced.
Moreover, the Gamecocks do an excellent job of getting to the foul line, ranking 20th nationally and first in the conference in FTA/FGA ratio.
Sloppy Offense and No Second Chances
Delaware stands at an ugly 9-18 overall and 5-11 in league play, and they have shortcomings on both ends of the court. We have already touched on their passive defense, and the news is even worse on the offensive end.
The Hens rank 248th in offensive efficiency, as they are plagued by sloppy ballhandling and a lack of second opportunities. To wit, they rank 268th in offensive turnover percentage, which when combined with their lack of turnovers forced defensively should result in a huge turnover advantage for Jacksonville State in this game. As for the lack of extended possessions, Delaware is 363rd out of 365 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage!
Furthermore, they are facing a Gamecocks’ defense ranked third in the conference in eFG% allowed.
Thus, we see a Delaware team ranked 344th in the country in scoring at 67.6 points per game continuing to struggle in that department. We are betting on Jacksonville State to score enough against an inefficient defense to win this game by double digits.
THE PICK
Jacksonville State -7.5 -108 at Heritage
