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NCAA Basketball Pick for Wednesday: Longhorns Can Hook Gators in Austin
We are 45-37-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick Tuesday with Rutgers. We have a much higher profile selection from the SEC Wednesday in Florida at Texas on ESPN2.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, February 25th – 7:00pm ET
We see a potential upset in the SEC on Wednesday, where we are taking the points with Texas at home in Austin when they host seventh ranked Florida on ESPN2.
Lack of 3-Pointers Could Hurt Gators
The Gators are no doubt one of the best teams in the country, entering this game ranked seventh in the AP Poll and an even better fifth overall on Kenpom. They come in with a 21-6 record, including 12-2 in the SEC, leaving them with a two-game lead atop the conference over Alabama and Arkansas, who are tied for second.
Florida has been fantastic defensively, ranking fourth nationally in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG& allowed while leading the SEC in both of those categories during league play. However, this is not as good of a shooting team as the vintage Florida teams of the past, especially from 3-point range. We feel that makes the Gators vulnerable when facing a team that can solve that great Florida defense, such as Texas in this game (more on that in a bit).
The Gators rank only 101st nationally in eFG%, mostly due to ranking 343rd out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a mere 30.1%. They have gotten by with that dreadful perimeter shooting thanks to their great defense, but we feel that lack of 3s will hurt them tonight when facing a team that can score.
Yes, Florida is still ranked 18th in offensive efficiency despite not making 3s, but the main catalyst to that has been ranking second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. That is another area where Texas can keep pace better than other Gators’ opponents.
Nice Recovery for Texas After Slow Start
Texas was in jeopardy of not making the NCAA Tournament when they were sitting at 12-9 overall and 3-5 inside the conference, but they then ran off a 5-game winning streak to solidify their position. That winning streak was snapped by a 91-80 loss at Georgia on Saturday, leaving the Longhorns at 17-10 overall, 8-6 in the SEC and ranked a solid 32nd overall on Kenpom. And that loss at Georgia could have easily been attributed to looking ahead to this matchup tonight.
The Texas resurgence has been fueled by offense, where they rank sixth nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in eFG% while ranking second in each category within the conference. That leaves Texas averaging a hefty 85.1 points per game overall and 86.6 PPG here at home. And besides being a better shooting team than Florida, the Longhorns can also hang in the second-chance department, ranking 15th in the land in offensive rebounding percentage.
Simply put, this line looks like an overlay in a game where we think that the Horns are capable of pulling off an outright upset at home. Our official bet here is taking the points with Texas in a potential barnburner that should go down to the wire.
THE PICK
Texas +6.5 -108 at Heritage
We are 45-37-2 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball pick Tuesday with Rutgers. We have a much higher profile selection from the SEC Wednesday in Florida at Texas on ESPN2.
Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns
Wednesday, February 25th – 7:00pm ET
We see a potential upset in the SEC on Wednesday, where we are taking the points with Texas at home in Austin when they host seventh ranked Florida on ESPN2.
Lack of 3-Pointers Could Hurt Gators
The Gators are no doubt one of the best teams in the country, entering this game ranked seventh in the AP Poll and an even better fifth overall on Kenpom. They come in with a 21-6 record, including 12-2 in the SEC, leaving them with a two-game lead atop the conference over Alabama and Arkansas, who are tied for second.
Florida has been fantastic defensively, ranking fourth nationally in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG& allowed while leading the SEC in both of those categories during league play. However, this is not as good of a shooting team as the vintage Florida teams of the past, especially from 3-point range. We feel that makes the Gators vulnerable when facing a team that can solve that great Florida defense, such as Texas in this game (more on that in a bit).
The Gators rank only 101st nationally in eFG%, mostly due to ranking 343rd out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting at a mere 30.1%. They have gotten by with that dreadful perimeter shooting thanks to their great defense, but we feel that lack of 3s will hurt them tonight when facing a team that can score.
Yes, Florida is still ranked 18th in offensive efficiency despite not making 3s, but the main catalyst to that has been ranking second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. That is another area where Texas can keep pace better than other Gators’ opponents.
Nice Recovery for Texas After Slow Start
Texas was in jeopardy of not making the NCAA Tournament when they were sitting at 12-9 overall and 3-5 inside the conference, but they then ran off a 5-game winning streak to solidify their position. That winning streak was snapped by a 91-80 loss at Georgia on Saturday, leaving the Longhorns at 17-10 overall, 8-6 in the SEC and ranked a solid 32nd overall on Kenpom. And that loss at Georgia could have easily been attributed to looking ahead to this matchup tonight.
The Texas resurgence has been fueled by offense, where they rank sixth nationally in offensive efficiency and 39th in eFG% while ranking second in each category within the conference. That leaves Texas averaging a hefty 85.1 points per game overall and 86.6 PPG here at home. And besides being a better shooting team than Florida, the Longhorns can also hang in the second-chance department, ranking 15th in the land in offensive rebounding percentage.
Simply put, this line looks like an overlay in a game where we think that the Horns are capable of pulling off an outright upset at home. Our official bet here is taking the points with Texas in a potential barnburner that should go down to the wire.
THE PICK
Texas +6.5 -108 at Heritage
