Underdog Betting Guide: How to Find Value on the "Plus" Side
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Swinging Johnson
- February 12, 2026
In the world of sports, fans root for the dynasty. They buy the jerseys of the favorites and expect the dominant teams to crush their opponents every time.
In the world of sports betting, however, blindly backing the favorite is the quickest way to drain a bankroll.
Smart handicapping isn’t about predicting who will win; it’s about identifying value. Often, that value is hidden in the team everyone expects to lose: the underdog. Whether it’s a divisional NFL rival catching points at home or a UFC fighter counted out by the public, betting the underdog is a critical strategy for long-term profitability.
This guide breaks down the math, the mindset, and the mechanics of betting on the dog.
What is an underdog bet?
In any matchup, oddsmakers designate a Favorite (expected to win) and an Underdog (expected to lose).
To level the playing field, bookmakers use a handicap.
- The Point Spread: The underdog is given points. If the Chiefs are -7 favorites, the Raiders are +7 underdogs. If you bet the Raiders, you win your bet even if they lose the game by 6 points or fewer.
- The Moneyline: The underdog offers a higher payout. A +150 underdog pays $150 profit for every $100 wagered.
The “+” sign is your indicator. In almost every major American sport, the underdog is identified by the plus sign (e.g., +3.5 points or +140 odds).
Why Bet the Underdog? (The Math of Value)
The primary advantage of betting underdogs is the Implied Probability.
When you bet a heavy favorite at -200, you must win 66.7% of your bets just to break even. When you bet an underdog at +150, you only need to win 40% of the time to break even.
The “Public Tax”:
Casual bettors overwhelmingly bet on favorites. They want the instant gratification of backing a winner. Sportsbooks know this. To protect themselves, they often shade the line, inflating the price of the favorite.
This creates artificial value on the underdog. If the public pushes a line from -150 to -170 purely on hype, the math supports the underdog bettor who grabs the opposing value.
How to Read Underdog Odds
Understanding the payout structure is vital before placing a wager. You can always use the BMR Betting Odds screen to compare prices across different books, but here is the basic breakdown:
Example: MLB Moneyline
- New York Yankees (-170): Risk $170 to win $100.
- Tampa Bay Rays (+150): Risk $100 to win $150.
In this scenario, the underdog bettor risks less to win more. This is why “dog bettors” can have a losing record (e.g., winning only 45% of bets) but still have a profitable bankroll at the end of the season.
3 Strategies for Smart Underdog Betting
You shouldn’t bet every underdog blindly. You need to spot specific scenarios where the “dog” has a bite.
- The Divisional Dog (NFL)
Familiarity breeds close games. In the NFL, divisional underdogs (teams playing within their own division) historically cover the spread at a higher rate than non-conference underdogs. The gap in talent is often neutralized by how well the teams know each other’s playbooks.
- The “Lookahead” Spot
Check the schedule. Is a top-tier team playing a lowly underdog just days before a massive rivalry game? Top teams often get caught “looking ahead,” playing with low energy against an inferior opponent. This is a prime spot to grab the points with the underdog. You can find analysis on these schedule spots in our daily Sports Picks section.
- Fading the Public
If 80% of the tickets are on the Favorite, but the line moves toward the Underdog (e.g., moving from +7 to +6.5), this is called “Reverse Line Movement.” It indicates that while the public is betting one way, large wagers from sharp bettors are backing the underdog.
Where to Place Underdog Bets
Not all sportsbooks offer the same prices on underdogs. One book might offer an NBA underdog at +4.5 while another offers +5. Over a full season, that half-point is the difference between winning and losing.
Always “line shop” to ensure you are getting the maximum points or the best moneyline payout. We have reviewed the best online sportsbooks to help you find reputable operators that offer fair odds and reliable payouts.
FAQs – Underdog Betting
Which sport is best for betting underdogs?
While value can be found everywhere, Baseball (MLB) and Hockey (NHL) are widely considered the best sports for underdog betting. Because these are moneyline-driven sports with high variance (a hot goalie or pitcher can steal a game), underdogs win outright more frequently than in sports like Basketball.
What determines who the underdog is?
Oddsmakers analyze power ratings, injuries, home-field advantage, and projected public perception. If a team is perceived as weaker or is playing in a hostile environment, they will open as the underdog.
How much should I bet on an underdog?
Bankroll management is key. Many bettors stick to a “flat betting” model (e.g., 1 unit per bet). However, because underdog payouts are higher, some bettors choose to risk less to win their standard unit amount. You can use our Odds Converter to calculate exactly how much a specific wager will return.
Do all sportsbooks allow underdog betting?
Yes. Every major sportsbook will list a favorite and an underdog for every matchup. However, the limits (how much you can bet) may vary depending on the sport and the bookmaker.
