Swinger’s 2021 NFL Record
10-8 ATS (-0.17 Units Using a 1-To-5-Unit System)
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 07, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
Of all the games, why in the world would I pick this one? Two of the league’s dregs battling it out in a midseason Stupor Bowl. Oh, what fun! Not.
Well, I’m not here to make cents, I’m here to make dollars, lots of them. And although glancing at my somewhat dubious record, I am doing precious little of either, I can’t help but love the value on the Texans in this one.
Besides bringing Swinger’s Picks to BMR, the good folks here also wisely decided to resurrect Point/Counterpoint with my buddy, and handicapper extraordinaire, Doug Upstone.
This is the game we debated and I advocated for Houston because they are looking themselves in the mirror at a team that is, like them, 1-7 on the season and the only thing they have going for them is the venue. But it should also be noted the Texans are 4-4 ATS versus the Dolphins’ 2-6 ATS mark.
Other than the Miami Gardens location, why are the Fish laying 6 ½ points to anyone – yes, even the Texans?! Makes no sense especially considering that Tyrod Taylor could return after a Week 2 hamstring injury that has sidelined him over the last several weeks.
Taylor can run, he’s a savvy veteran, and could energize this dormant Texans offense. Even if he doesn’t, Miami just doesn’t score enough to blow any team out. Let’s take the points with a live road pup in this one.
NFL Pick: Texans +6 ½ (-105) at BetOnline for 2 units (visit our BetOnline Review)
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 07, 2021 - 01:00 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field
We got an excellent early number on the Bills last week as they were installed as 13 ½ point favorites over the Dolphins and I pounced. Getting under 14 was important but if you procrastinated and waited until game time then you likely got the Bills at -15 which proved to be the difference in a cover for me and a push for you after Buffy went on to a 26-11 victory.
And although it wasn’t the dominating performance I thought the Bills would render, it was good enough. But this week, they can’t help but score against the lackluster Jaguars. There is no way the Jags are stopping Josh Allen and the embarrassment of riches around him. The Seahawks hung 31 points on Jacksonville last week and even their weak-kneed defense held Trevor Lawrence and his offense to a mere touchdown.
The NFL odds at all of the best online sportsbooks are dealing the Bills as an uber-chalky 14 ½ point road favorite but considering the Bills will win by 20 or more, we’ll lay it and like it.
NFL Pick: Bills -14 ½ (-105) at Intertops for 4 units (visit our Intertops Review)
Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 07, 2021 - 04:25 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium
No Aaron – no problem. That’s how bullish I am on the Packers, a 7-1 team with a 7-1 ATS record, getting an enormous head start against a team that just hasn’t been able to put it all together this season.
Jordan Love, the kid the Packers drafted as their first-round pick in 2020 that caused Rodgers to throw a hissy fit, will get his chance to shine. Rodgers is out due to contracting Covid-19 which is why this spread is as high as 7.5 in most shops.
Everyone else is intact for the Packers and I suspect if Jordan Love was good enough for the Packers to risk the drama with Rodgers, he’ll be able to work his magic against a woeful KC secondary that is ranked 29th against the pass and only a few notches better against the run.
This is a good spot to bet an excellent team with north of a touchdown head start. The only issue is that Love is largely untested but he will be working against a poor defense which should bolster his confidence early and allow for an impressive performance.
Nevertheless, we have to drop our unit count down because the second-year man may get rattled by the Chiefs’ pass rush. After all, you can’t hurry Love.
NFL Pick: Packers +7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports for 2 units (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Woodman’s Corner
Woodman’s 2020 NFL Record (5-3, +1.83 Units)
The Woodman went back to his roots last week and mercifully dyed them, as the gray was beginning to show. Now his golden locks have returned and he’s basking in the afterglow of a superb selection with the New England Patriots last week, a six-point road dog that won outright in an impressive 27-24 victory.
As you know, the Woodman has deviated a bit this season from his bread-and-butter underdogs but he went back to that well last week and it proved fruitful. This week he is doing the same with the Denver Broncos on the highway in the Lone Star State against the Cowboys. The Woodman says grab the +10 and bet the farm!
Woodman’s Pick: Broncos +10 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
