Friday’s game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox is anyone’s to win. What should we do with out MLB picks?
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, 25 June, 2021–7:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Baseball is always better when it’s the New York Yankees versus the Boston Red Sox. This is by far the top rivalry in the majors, featuring two American League East teams that have been going at it for 120 years. Okay, the Yankees were the Baltimore Orioles when they first met in 1901, the Red Sox were the Boston Americans, and there were no divisions back then. But when the Orioles moved north two years later and became the New York Highlanders, the first game they played against Boston broke into fisticuffs. Nothing much has changed since, really. Except we have the internet now.
The rise of top online sportsbooks has pushed the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry to new heights; they’ll open a three-game set this Friday at Fenway Park (est. 1912), and the MLB odds at press time have Boston as a slight home dog, with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) offering the best price at +108. Seems like another great opportunity to fade the Yankees (40-34, minus-6.20 betting units) – just like we successfully did last week, and the week before.
Pitch Black
But what about the Over? This has also been a profitable run for Over bettors in recent days, thanks to the league-wide crackdown on substance use by pitchers. No, not that kind of substance use. You know what we mean: the sticky stuff. Black gold. Texas tea. The threat of suspension has pitchers coming clean, throwing with less spin rate, and giving up more runs as a result. The Over went 46-41 (52.9 percent) in the seven days leading up to Thursday’s action.
We could put both the Over and the Red Sox in our MLB picks, of course. But let’s compare and contrast anyway – one of these picks is probably better than the other. The fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project Friday’s game as a pure 50/50 coinflip, so if you’re getting Boston at +108, that’s not too bad, but in the long run, you’re barely paying the vigorish on your bet with that 20-cent moneyline. A small bet is all we can recommend with that one.
German To Our Discussion
Total-wise, we’ve got a less promising situation on our hands. Martin Perez (4.40 FIP) is due to take the mound for Boston, and he’s got the Under at 9-5 this year – even though he’s been shaky at times. Domingo German (4.67 FIP) will take the mound for New York; he has the Under at 7-6. Nothing about their peripheral stats screams out “Regression!” Maybe the Yankees bats can help us.
They have a collective .282 BABIP (No. 22 overall), which suggests they’ve gotten a little unlucky at the plate. But the Red Sox are second overall with a chunky .312 BABIP. You can’t have it both ways if you’re going to play the regression game. Let’s stick with a small bet on the Red Sox as discussed, but if you want to keep carpet-bombing the MLB lines with Over bets, that can’t be too wrong – for now.
MLB Pick: Red Sox +108 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
