WNBA Valkyries vs. Mystics Best Bets for July 31: Defense Reigns Supreme in This Matchup

Washington Offense’s Let-Down Spot

It’s easy to see Washington’s most recent scoring output and to feel allured by the “over.”

After all, if the over/under sits at 153.5, then wouldn’t the Mystics need to score 30 fewer points than they did in their last game just for the “over” to have a chance at not hitting — and isn’t such a decline in scoring pretty drastic?

An “over” bettor would reason thusly, but such reasoning is based on ignorance of how much scoring totals can change from one game to the next.

We see this sort of variability in Washington’s struggle to be consistent on offense.

Before their last game, the Mystics have scored over 100 points one time this season. In their following game, they mustered all of 56 points.

Their let-down spot tonight is evident in this dramatic decline where they scored almost 50 fewer points in the game that followed their explosion.

Washington’s Three-Point Shooting

In Washington’s last game, it had an incredible performance from deep, despite the fact that the Mystics are not a good shooting team. After their most recent performance, they still rank in the bottom half in three-point percentage.

For threes, they rely heavily on women like Brittney Sykes and Sug Sutton who have suffered low three-point conversion rates throughout their respective careers.

With players like these two women, one has to expect Washington’s three-point shooting to decline significantly to the abysmal success rate that it had been experiencing before its most recent anomaly.

With poor three-point shooting, Washington’s offense will be easy for any defense (except, of course, for the really bad defenses like Connecticut) to stop because it will be one-dimensional.

Golden State’s Interior Defense

Of course, the Valkyries’ defense is not just “any defense”. It ranks in the upper half in defensive rating.

Golden State’s defensive weakness is on the perimeter, which is perfect for this matchup especially because the Mystics are coming off that anomalous three-point shooting performance.

The Mystics do not even primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt by far the fewest threes per game.

Instead, they want to attack the basket. They attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

Given this determination to score inside, it is critical to assess the quality of Golden State’s interior defense.

I like the Valkyries defensively tonight because, by a clear margin, they allow the fewest field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.

Golden State’s One-Dimensionality

Similar to Washington, Golden State’s offense suffers from being one-dimensional.

As will be the case for the Mystics’ defense, defenses find it easier to handle one-dimensional offenses because they are more predictable in the sense that it is easier to expect in what spaces they will try to pose the biggest threat.

In being more predictable, they give the opposing defense less space to have to worry about.

You hear folks talk about the importance of spacing for offenses. If an offense can readily score both inside and outside the arc, then defenses have to worry about protecting the rim and about guarding shooters behind the three-point line. That is a lot of distance for them to cover.

With Golden State as its opponent, Washington’s defense won’t have to stress about protecting the basket.

The Valkyries lack efficient scorers especially at the basket. Their most efficient center, Temi Fagbenle, is not exactly one to light up the scoreboard. She’s scored all of eleven points in her last two games.

Overall, Golden State makes the second-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.

Washington’s Perimeter Defense

On offense, the Valkyries are one-dimensional with the priority they place on three-point shooting.

They attempt by far the most three-pointers per game. To perform well on offense in a given game, they’ll depend on their three-point shooting.

Therefore, it is critical to assess the quality of Washington’s perimeter defense.

I like the Mystics on defense tonight because they allow the lowest three-point shooting percentage.

They struggle against offenses that like to exert their dominance inside, like the Sparks did with their well-sized forwards and their 90-point scoring outputs against them.

Golden State’s offense, whose top-scoring forward Kayla Thornton recently underwent season-ending injury, is the opposite of the Sparks as a guard-centered group that will be vastly easier for Washington’s defense to contain.

Takeaway

The matchup speaks clearly in favor of the “under,” with Washington’s perimeter defense and Golden State’s interior defense thriving this season.

The Mystics will be glad to face an offense reliant on three-point shooting, just as the Valkyries want to face an offense that relies on scoring inside.

Both one-dimensional offenses will struggle to score, plus the Mystics’ offense is in a let-down spot. Let’s cash in on the Under 152 at +100, available at one of the top sportsbooks, BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Under 152 (+100)

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