WNBA Caitlin Clark Best Prop Bets for July 11: The Fever Have Cooled Down

The Odds

As of Friday morning, BetOnline has the over/under for Caitlin Clark’s point total at 19.5. 

Oddsmakers are thus treating her as if she hasn’t missed any time.

Moreover, they seem to me to be disrespecting Atlanta’s defense while acknowledging the incessant hype that surrounds Clark.

She is someone whose point total “under” will always look appealing because of the super strong public perception of her, which will drive up the point total that oddsmakers post for her.

Given the situation she’s in and the matchup she’s facing, tonight’s game presents a particularly strong opportunity to play her point total under and to parlay that bet with her team’s point total under.

Caitlin Clark Is Back…Sort of

Before Wednesday’s game, Clark had last played on June 24. A groin injury sidelined her, which she sustained in that game.

So, 14 days elapsed in between the date of her injury and the date of her return. During that 14-day span, Indiana played four games without her.

When a player returns from injury, the first question that people immediately ask is whether she will be rusty.

But Indiana’s 19-point loss against Golden State on Wednesday shows that another key question must be asked: Will the returning player’s team offense successfully reintegrate her?

The Fever offense clearly did not reintegrate Clark successfully. Playing without her, because she is obviously integral to their offense, required an adjustment. Indiana’s offense had to operate differently during her absence.

Likewise, the Fever offense has to readjust to her being back in its lineup.

Hence, on July 9, the Fever scored all of 61 points. As paradoxical as it sounds if you don’t consider the above reasoning, Indiana’s offense is not ready to score a lot of points with Clark back. In that game on Wednesday, fellow key scorer Kelsey Mitchell, for example, scored all of twelve points, although she averages 18.9 points per game.

Clark likewise struggled to score. She scored ten points, whereas she averages 17.4 points per game. Her field goal conversion rate was 33.3 percent.

So, she is back in the sense that she is playing. But she is not really “back” in the deeper sense of the word. She is not her usual self. Likewise, Indiana’s offense is not its usual self.

People are eagerly expecting Clark to thrive, but that eagerness is just media-driven hype. She needs time to regain comfort in the WNBA in the same sense that she needs time to re-gel with her offense. 

Ambitious Point Total

The over/under for Clark’s point total tonight feels ambitious even if Clark weren’t rusty and even if she had already been successfully reintegrated in her offense.

Oddsmakers have her point total at above her season average in points per game. She has exceeded 19.5 points in all of four games this season, whereas in most of her games she failed to sniff this point total.

When she scored 20 or more points, she always thrived from deep. This is to be expected: she primarily likes to shoot threes, and she’s best at making threes.

First of all, though, rust must be expected to hurt a three-point shooter more than anyone else because threes are, statistically speaking, significantly harder to make than shots near the basket.

Second of all, it’s hard for a player to make threes against good perimeter defenses even when she isn’t rusty. This is especially true for Clark, whom defenses understand to target.

When Clark thrived from deep, she mostly exploited teams like the pathetic Sun or benefitted from high-scoring affairs in which both teams scored a lot of points.

Expecting her to score 20 points against Atlanta’s defense, which is far from the level of a Connecticut, feels like a tall ask, especially tonight.

Atlanta’s Perimeter Defense

Atlanta’s defense is specifically strong along the perimeter.

The Dream are led here, among others, by Allisha Gray, who is a three-time All-Star partly because of her well-reputed defense.

With the likes of Gray, Atlanta is focused on taking away three-pointers. The Dream allow the fewest three-point makes per game. They also allow the fewest three-point attempts. They are more determined than any other team to run opposing players off the three-point line, behind which is precisely where Clark wants to succeed.

Takeaway

Clark is rusty, and she lacks chemistry with her teammates right now.

She is in a bad spot, which oddsmakers disregard with her ambitious point total.

Sure, people think highly of her, but that is primarily the consequence of her success — back when she wasn’t rusty — against poor defenses and in high-scoring affairs.

Indiana’s offense will be mired down by a Dream defense that excels at taking away threes and at guarding the space nearest the basket in which the Fever offense as a whole most commonly wants to operate.

With Atlanta’s defense allowing the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket, the Fever team total under is worth parlaying with Clark’s point total under. You can build this parlay at BetOnline.

The Parlay

• Caitlin Clark Point Total Under 19.5
• Fever Team Total Under 85.5 Points

WNBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+110) at BetOnline

Two-Legged Parlay (+110)

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