Top WNBA Pick: Sun +18 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Let’s break down the latest WNBA odds from top sportsbooks and dive into why I’m backing the Valkyries and Sun as the sharpest plays tonight.
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Liberty Are a Mess
Oddsmakers have the Liberty favored strongly on the road tonight because they account for the entire season. If you haven’t paid attention to the current state of the Liberty, then you will surely think that the spread is reasonable.
However, right now, the Liberty are not their usual selves. They have lost three of their last four games. It’s not like they’re unluckily losing nail-biters, either. Their losses have come by 14, 8, and 10 points, respectively.
Injuries have exacerbated their current form. They most recently lost center Jonquel Jones for four to six weeks with a right ankle sprain. Jones is a crucial part of New York’s team: she is a versatile scorer who ranks third on the team in points; she leads her team in rebounds; she is also a versatile defender who is central to the success of her squad’s interior defense.
Also keep an eye on the status of star sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu, who is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game with a neck injury.
Golden State’s Improved Play
Again, if you broadly consider the entire season before its current phase then the spread might seem reasonable in alignment with the negative reputation that the Valkyries have created for themselves. However, the Valkyries are playing much better.
They enter tonight’s game on a two-game win streak. Most recently, they beat the Fever by eleven points and the Sun by 24.
Their newfound ability to score a lot of points — they amassed 88 points against Indiana and 87 against Connecticut — is crucial because they are already well-known for their defense. They rank fourth in defensive rating.
Offense was their weakness, but it is not a weakness anymore. Their top-ranked rebounding already helps mitigate the talent disparity that had been hurting them. In addition to controlling the glass on both ends, they are now able to count on more prolific scoring from Kayla Thornton, Tiffany Hayes, and others who contribute to the enhanced prowess of an offense that had been characterized as star-less and mediocre.
Scoring Inside and Outside
The Valkyries will thrive inside against the Liberty’s thinned interior defense.
By being more potent inside, they will also be able to find more success behind the arc, where Liberty perimeter defenders no longer benefit from having Jones’ rim protection behind them to help clean up their messes when they allow opposing ball-handlers to drive to the basket. Without Jones, Liberty perimeter defenders cannot guard the three-point line as aggressively or as effectively.
This is already a rather weak New York perimeter defense: on the season, it ranks below-average at limiting the efficiency of opposing three-point shooters.
New York’s deficient perimeter defense matters especially in this game against a Golden State offense that attempts the second-most three-pointers per game.
Look out, among others, for Chloe Bibby, who is converting 38.5 percent of her three-point attempts. She is another reason why the Valkyries must be expected to possess sufficient firepower to really challenge, if not defeat, New York tonight. Recall that the Valkyries’ rebounding prowess, defensive ability, and superior form also give them betting value tonight.
WNBA Pick: Valkyries +8 (+100) at BetOnline
Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena
Connecticut’s Situational Advantage
Tonight, the situation favors Connecticut. It doesn’t seem this way, if you only look at Las Vegas’ last game.
However, we have to avoid recency bias. Any value placed on Las Vegas’ last game is predicated on a nescience of its inconsistent play throughout the season.
For example, the Aces, after beating the Sun by 25, beat the Mystics by all of three points at home. Otherwise, they have won one time after a victory, and that victory was likewise narrow.
As evident in the tremendous drop in scoring from the game that they win to their following game, the Vegas offense reliably declines after a strong performance.
This tendency positions the Aces negatively from a betting perspective. As of Wednesday morning, they are favored by 18 points. If you don’t think that an 18-point favorite is going to score a lot of points, then you have to value the underdog.
Connecticut is worth valuing for additional situational reasons. Namely, the Sun have their best games after a blowout loss. For example, they recently lost by 17 at Indiana before easily covering the spread in their following game against Phoenix.
Las Vegas’ Inconsistency
The Aces are inconsistent because they are easier to defend. Most importantly, star A’ja Wilson has not been her usual self this year.
Her scoring has declined dramatically relative to last year. In addition to averaging 5.8 fewer points per game, her field goal efficiency has plummeted. She is converting field goals at an 8.4-percent lower rate. Her field goal efficiency was never so low as it was this year.
Opposing defenses are double-teaming her often, and she and her offense are failing to respond consistently well.
With this diminished ability to rely on Wilson, the Aces are unable to string together strong offensive performances.
Connecticut in the Interior
On offense, the Sun will thrive especially in the interior against a Vegas defense that allows the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket and that is likewise vulnerable in the mid-range spaces in which Connecticut’s offense has an even stronger preference to operate.
Vegas’ lack of shot-blocking talent makes it more ridiculous to avoid betting on the underdog in this matchup.
Connecticut’s offense won’t have much work to do to stay within the number posted by oddsmakers.
The Sun have scored over 70 points in three of their last four games thanks to strong play from the likes of center Tina Charles, who is a potent weapon for them against any interior defense, not to mention one like Vegas’.
With the Aces’ diminished offensive ability, they will be on a major upset alert when Connecticut exceeds 70 points tonight.
WNBA Pick: Sun +18 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
