WNBA Pick: Mystics +11.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Minnesota Lynx couldn’t have asked for a much better start to the 2025 WNBA season. They’re first overall at 14-2 (9-7 ATS), and Napheesa Collier has soared to the top of the MVP odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), favored over the field at a commanding –275. What could possibly go wrong?
Regression, that’s what. The Lynx are indeed a formidable opponent, but they’re overvalued as 11.5-point home faves on the WNBA odds board at Heritage Sports for Thursday’s matchup with the Washington Mystics (8-9 SU, 10-7 ATS).
How big should you bet the other side at the top-rated sportsbooks? Let’s find out.
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx
Thursday, July 03, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Target Center
What’s Wrong With the Lynx?
From a betting perspective, plenty.
Minnesota has ample talent on the hoof, but they’ve also played the softest schedule in the entire league, checking in at minus-1.98 SOS (Strength Of Schedule) on the Basketball Reference charts.
Meanwhile, the Mystics are in the middle of the pack at minus-0.02 SOS, overcoming some early turbulence to go 5-3 SU and ATS in their last eight games. That includes back-to-back wins as 8.5-point underdogs on the WNBA betting lines:
- June 24: MIN 64, WAS 68
- June 26: WAS 94, LV 83
Washington also came achingly close to beating the Atlanta Dream on June 20, falling 92-91 as 9.5-point road dogs. Atlanta (minus-1.55 SOS) is another team we’ve been fading the heck out of here at the home office; they’re 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five, starting with that loss to the Mystics. Lather, rinse, repeat for Minnesota.
How Much Should I Bet?
Maybe a bit less than you might have against Atlanta. The Lynx were filling up college funds nationwide to start the season at 7-0 SU and 2-5 ATS, but it’s been all gas and no brakes since then at 7-2 SU and ATS.
Some of this is dumb luck, of course. Minnesota needed overtime to beat Atlanta 96-92 last Friday as 3.5-point road faves; they also barely covered their June 17 matchup with Las Vegas, prevailing 76-62 over the visitors as a 13-point chalk. But there have been some impressive blowouts as well, like Sunday’s 102-63 romp over the last-place Connecticut Sun (+20.5 away).
Speaking of dumb luck: 3-pointers. The Lynx lead the WNBA at 36.3% from behind the arc, well above the league average of 33.2%. Is it sustainable? Maybe; Minnesota shot 38.0% last year, also tops in the WNBA. These are short seasons they play, up from 40 games in 2024 to 44 this year (not including the Commissioner’s Cup), so we can’t just assume the regression monsters are going to eat the Lynx alive from here on in.
Then again, Minnesota has upped their 3-point accuracy to 37.1% over these past nine games, making regression even more likely. The Mystics are 35.1% from long range during the same span, up only slightly from 34.8% on the season. They were second behind the Lynx last year at 36.6%, so who knows, maybe both these teams will keep filling it up the rest of the way – but will Collier keep hitting 94.3% of her free throws? Highly unlikely, even if she’s one of the game’s better shooters at 83.6% for her career.
The Pick
We should also mention the Lynx will be without veteran back-up guard Karlie Samuelson, who could be out the rest of the year after injuring her left foot in that win over Connecticut. Without Samuelson, Minnesota fell 74-59 to the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever (+10.5 away) in Tuesday’s Cup final.
Bet accordingly for Thursday’s game, and may the sphere be with you.
WNBA Pick: Mystics +11.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
