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WNBA Best Bets for July 23: The Mercury Are Atlanta’s Dream Matchup

Rhyne Howard Atlanta Dream Skylar Diggins-Smith Phoenix Mercury WNBA.
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Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s WNBA action.

We get to really lock in and focus on breaking down this game between Atlanta and Phoenix. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Dream at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury

Wednesday, July 23, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at PHX Arena

Atlanta Dream’s Good Spot

Situations are important to consider because they provide insight into the probability of a team playing up to its potential.

One reason why I like the Dream tonight is that they are in a strong spot. They are reliable winners after a loss. To be exact, they are 6-2 after a loss.

As a 13-10 team, it’s not like they win all the time, so the fact that they are so solid after a loss is meaningful.

Their winning percentage improves greatly in the game following a loss. Almost half of their wins came in this spot. The two exceptions came against the WNBA’s top two teams, the Minnesota and New York squads that played in last year’s Finals and rank top-two in the standings.

Even in those two games, they took the Lynx to overtime and lost to a Liberty team that was out for revenge. New York avenged a nine-point loss that it incurred against an Atlanta team that, you guessed it, was coming off a loss.

Given Atlanta’s success against New York in this bounce-back spot, the fact that Phoenix is a good team thus cannot destabilize our conviction that Atlanta will win tonight.

Phoenix’s Goal on Defense

To limit an Atlanta offense that, with its team coming off a loss, will be in strong shape, the Mercury defense is going to have to excel in the way that it wants to excel.

The Mercury want to apply ball pressure. Phoenix likes to hound opposing players behind the arc. This inclination articulates itself in the high rate at which it forces turnovers, which reflects its general, season-long success in this endeavor.

To succeed tonight, the Mercury defense will have to use ball pressure to eliminate Atlanta’s offensive rhythm.

Pressure Poses No Problem For Atlanta

Unfortunately for Phoenix, Atlanta is one of the best teams at avoiding turnovers on offense.

Given Phoenix’s reliance on applying ball pressure, it cannot come as a surprise that the Mercury struggle against teams that do not turn the ball over much.

Recalling that the Mercury rarely lose in general, it’s very meaningful that two of its losses came against Seattle. A Seattle team that ranks number one at avoiding turnovers is responsible for nearly a third of the Mercury’s losses.

Phoenix also lost three times to Minnesota, which non-coincidentally ranks number two at avoiding turnovers on offense.

While the Lynx are a great team, it is telling that two of those defeats came by 13 and 23 points, respectively.

The odds do not remotely account for the great decline that Phoenix suffers against teams with offenses that ably avoid turnovers.

Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada

On offense, Atlanta ranks number three at avoiding turnovers, creating a strong outlook for its team tonight.

Allisha Gray plays a major role in her squad’s ability to avoid turnovers on offense. As evident in her All-Star Skills Challenge participation, Gray is a solid ball-handler. She is a fluid dribbler who remains reliable under pressure.

Jordin Canada is her team’s leading assist-getter. She is likewise a solid ball-handler whose strong vision will help Atlanta’s offense maintain and maximize its rhythm.

Atlanta’s Three-Point Shooting

Atlanta is going to score points, especially behind the arc.

The Dream love to shoot threes and are good at it: partly due to Gray, they are one of the leaders in three-point makes. While Gray, for example, is a threat off the ball, she can also create her own shot.

Led by the likes of Gray and Canada, expect Atlanta to work for and accumulate open three-point shots against a Phoenix defense that is at its worst trying to prevent threes.

The Mercury defensive strength is guarding the basket, but the Dream do not prefer to score in this space. Phoenix’s worst defensive game, for example, came against a Dallas offense that amassed 98 points largely by thriving from behind the arc.

Atlanta’s focus on shooting threes will serve it well in its endeavor to replicate the success of Dallas’ offense.

Phoenix is favored so strongly largely due to the success of its interior defense. However, the uselessness of its interior defense against a team like Atlanta creates more betting value in the Dream.

Atlanta’s Excellent Perimeter Defense

The Mercury on offense rely heavily on shooting threes, so the success of Atlanta’s perimeter defense will be crucial tonight.

Whereas the Mercury on defense struggle to prevent three-point makes — partly due to their risky defensive tactics — the Dream are the best team at limiting three-point makes. Their focus on taking away and contesting three-point attempts makes them match up ideally well against Phoenix’s offense.

Beyond wanting to focus on perimeter defense, they have the personnel to execute.

Whereas the Dream will be able to score in the way they prefer, their perimeter defense will ensure that Phoenix will struggle to score in the way it prefers.

Atlanta’s overall team success tonight will be maximized by its offensive prowess and its bounce-back situation. So let’s back their +7.5 at -108.

Dream +7.5 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.