WNBA Best Bets July 22: Oddsmakers Are Disrespecting the Sky

Rainman M.
July 22, 2025

Top sportsbooks have posted their lines for tonight’s WNBA slate, and three matchups stand out as strong betting opportunities: Sparks vs. Mystics, Fever vs. Liberty, and Sky vs. Lynx.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics

Tuesday, July 22, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at CareFirst Arena

Washington’s Defensive Shift

The narrative surrounding Washington is that it is an evolving team that is exceeding expectations.

While this narrative is positive and while it is true that the Mystics are well above the bottom region of the standings in which experts before the season expected them to be, one has to remember that this is still a flawed group. The Mystics are a .500 team that has significant vulnerabilities.

I dislike the Mystics’ defense tonight because Los Angeles is well-built to exploit a key vulnerability of theirs that is actually a byproduct of their evolution.

Specifically, the Mystics are allowing vastly fewer threes, but, at the same time, they are conceding way more points in the paint.

In their past eleven games, Washington opponents are amassing over ten more points in the paint per game than they were in Washington’s first eleven games.

Why This Matters

Washington’s defensive shift is a part of its evolution that enables it to have greater general success. The key word is general.

Specifically against the Sparks, the Mystics are now in worse shape because the Sparks prioritize attacking the paint.

In fact, the Sparks attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.

Last week, Los Angeles scored 99 points against Washington, with women like forward Dearica Hamby achieving efficient offensive outputs.

It’s not like one Sparks player happened to be hot: four different Sparks players scored at least 15 points.

Washington’s Offense Will Keep Pace

On offense, the Mystics must likewise be expected to thrive tonight.

The Sparks have one of the WNBA’s worst defenses in general — this is an objectively measured fact.

They have had a lot of injuries this year. These undoubtedly contribute to a negative team chemistry, which plays an undervalued role in the level of success that a team defense has. Coaching problems are also hurting the Sparks.

In particular, they are weak in the interior, where within five feet of the basket they allow both the highest field goal percentage and the second-most field goal makes.

Washington’s offense is averse to shooting threes and wants to live inside the arc. So the Los Angeles defense is just the sort of defense that it wants to face.

I have a hunch that the Mystics avenge their loss last week to the Sparks, but the “over” is the best play with both defenses being so vulnerbale in key respects.

Los Angeles-Washington Over 167.5 (-105)

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Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty

Tuesday, July 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Barclays Center

Key Injury News

The fact that Caitlin Clark has been ruled out for today’s game is actually not the most important piece of injury news.

Rather, because Indiana values attacking inside so much, the most decisive piece of injury news is the return of New York center Jonquel Jones.

As evident in the number of points in the paint that it allowed in her absence, New York was hurt mightily by the absence of the four-time All-Defensive-Team selection.

New York’s Interior Defense

Even with Jones having missed as much time as she did, the Liberty still rank second-best at limiting field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.

They do still have, after all, the likes of Breanna Stewart, whose incredible wingspan helps make her an elite defender.

New York’s stout interior defense has a great outlook against an Indiana offense that relies more than every team but one on scoring near the basket. Against the Liberty defense, the Fever offense will struggle in the very space that it most wants to succeed in.

Indiana’s Perimeter Defense

At the same time, the Fever defense has a great outlook today.

This matters because their opponent tonight primarily wants to shoot threes. New York is one of four teams to attempt over 28 threes per game.

Indiana’s defense is characteristically focused on taking away three-pointers. The Fever are fourth-best at limiting three-point attempts and third-best at limiting three-point efficiency.

These stats indicate that they excel both at running shooters off the three-point line and at contesting three-point shot attempts.

Clark’s absence can only help them. In addition to this sharpshooter being unable to contribute to her offense’s scoring endeavor tonight, her absence will prevent a debacle like the loss against Golden State where the Valkyries on offense had too easy a time from behind the arc.

Clark’s absence will maximize the outlook for Indiana’s perimeter defense, which is one of the league’s best in spite of her. Let’s take the Under 164 at -110.

Indiana-New York Under 164 (-110)

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Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx

Tuesday, July 22, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Target Center

Series History

The matchups between these teams this year tells us everything we need to know about what to expect tonight. So far against the Lynx, Chicago has lost by five, won by six, and lost by 13.

That 13-point loss was their last meeting. It does not indicate that Minnesota is making any sort of progress against Chicago.

Instead, it is the product of careless and preventable Sky turnovers that allowed Minnesota to run away with the game. Expect more focus from the Sky as they seek revenge tonight.

Props

In their three meetings thus far, Angel Reese has scored 16, 19, and 22 points, respectively. Chicago has scored at least 75 points and as many as 87 points in these three games.

Scoring inside the arc is what Chicago primarily wants to do. With Minnesota’s defense weakest around the basket, as evident in the high number of field goal makes that it allows within five feet of the basket, the Sky offense matches up too well against the Lynx to be dogged by this many points against them — their three meetings thus far provide all the proof we need.

Sky +16 (-113)

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The Parlay

Sky Over 71.5 Points
Angel Reese 12+ Points

Two-Legged Parlay (+115)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.