WNBA Best Bets for July 16: No Clark? No Problem for Fever

Now that’s more like it. We were on the cusp of recommending the New York Liberty for Wednesday’s game against Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever, but fate stepped in Tuesday night when Clark reinjured her groin, and the WNBA odds moved from Liberty –7.5 on the early lines to –10 at Bookmaker as we go to press.

Clark’s Out, But We’re Not Backing the Champs

Not that we’re wishing harm upon Clark, quite the opposite. But New York isn’t the kind of contrarian WNBA pick we’re famous for here at the ranch. The Liberty are first in the Eastern Conference at 14-6 SU, but the defending champions are also in the red at 8-11-1 ATS, burdened by the weight of public expectation.

Only one person could have made this bet work: Caitlin Clark. Alas, it doesn’t look like Clark will lead the Indiana Fever (12-10 SU, 11-11 ATS) into the depths of Brooklyn to take on the champs this Wednesday – on zero days of rest, after visiting the Connecticut Sun on Tuesday. That game was on ESPN; the follow-up is on the CBS Sports Network. It’s all about maximizing Clark’s visibility, never mind what’s fair for the Fever.

New York, meanwhile, has sat idle since last Sunday’s 79-72 victory over the Atlanta Dream (+5.5 away). They haven’t even had to play a road game since late June. Of course, we were going to recommend the Liberty at the top sportsbooks for your WNBA betting needs if Clark were healthy, or at least plausibly healthy, but now we have to take the other side with Indiana as a double-digit dog.

What’s Wrong With Caitlin Clark?

As always, it’s more about the betting public than Clark herself – although to be fair, most of her key stats are down a shade from last year’s rookie campaign, including points and rebounds per game, as well as made 3-pointers. Assists and steals are up, mind you. We’d normally look at Clark’s 28.9% success rate from long range (heading into Tuesday’s game versus Connecticut) and suggest there’s room for positive regression, but Clark’s shooting numbers are lower regardless of distance:

• 2024: 34.4% 3P, 53.5% 2P, 90.6% FT
• 2025: 28.9% 3P, 47.1% 2P, 81.8% FT

Perhaps this downturn can be explained away by Clark’s injury status. If only she were completely healthy, maybe she’d be fine – and maybe good health is just around the corner, as Clark works her way back into game shape after her latest five-game layoff. Then again, maybe this is the new normal for Clark in a league hell-bent on extracting maximum value from her efforts, while her opponents find new and more brutal ways to stop her progress.

Weren’t the Fever Winning With Clark?

True, we can’t just assume that Clark’s absence will enhance Indiana’s betting value. They did go 2-1 SU and ATS in Clark’s first three games back, even while Clark herself was cashing in the Under at a 3-0 clip for both Points Scored and 3-Pointers Made.

Then the Fever faced the Sun – at the TD Garden in Boston, of course – and while they managed to win 85-77, Indiana failed to cash in as 15.5-point road faves. It was yet another sad day on the Clark front for her Over bettors; she finished with just 14 points on 4-of-14 from the floor, including 1-of-7 from behind the arc.

The Pick

Again, we’re a bit relieved to be free from having the Liberty in our basketball picks – although they did cover back-to-back games as home favorites to slam the brakes on a 0-8-1 ATS run.

It’s hardly an ideal spot for Indiana given their punishing schedule; there’s also a non-zero chance Clark suits up Wednesday, since they have yet to confirm her absence as I write this. Time and size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

WNBA Pick: Fever +10 (-107) at Bookmaker

Fever +10 (-107)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.