WNBA Best Bets for June 20: Don’t Overlook Connecticut Tonight
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Rainman M.
- June 20, 2025
Top WNBA Pick: Sun +4 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Let’s take a look at the latest WNBA odds released by the sportsbooks, where my two favorite games to bet on are Wings vs. Sun and Mystics vs. Dream.
Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun
Friday, June 20, 2025 – 7:30 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
Don’t Dismiss The Sun
I like the underdog Sun today largely because I want to fade Dallas as a road favorite. As I will explain, the Wings are a mess right now.
The obvious response to this line of thought is that the Sun have had a bad season themselves, but the point is that they make for a solid home underdog against this Dallas team.
First of all, you can’t dismiss the Sun, especially at home, where they have been much more competitive than on the road. In their last game, they impressively covered the spread, with ease, as home underdogs against a star-laden and well-rounded Phoenix team.
Connecticut has repeatedly proven its ability to exceed 80 points in a given game, led as it is by the inside scoring of center Tina Charles and the more balanced scoring of guard Marina Mabrey, who likewise averages 15.8 points per game.
My argument is that the Sun must be expected to score enough points against a team that lacks the personnel and cohesion on offense to outscore them.
Dallas’ Absences
Besides unfairly emphasizing Connecticut’s struggles, Dallas backers will want to point to the last game between these teams, where the Wings covered the spread. However, if results simply repeated themselves, then every bettor would be a millionaire.
That Dallas team was different from the one that is playing today. First of all, its frontcourt has now been depleted with the absence of Luisa Geiselsoder and Teaira McCowan. Both players will represent their respective countries in EuroBasket.
Even more importantly, the Wings recently lost forward Maddy Siegrist to injury. She is the team’s fourth-leading scorer with 9.4 points per game. Guard Tyasha Harris also sustained a season-ending injury.
Disoriented Dallas
A beleaguered Dallas team will continue to lack cohesion as it struggles under its first-time head coach. The Wings are losing so many games in part because their head coach is unable to make use of his talent on the court. For example, its utilization of Paige Bueckers in an off-ball role frequently proves ineffective.
But using Bueckers as the point guard means that Arike Ogunbowale has to gain comfort in a new role, which she is having trouble doing, both in a tactical sense and in a sense of figuring out who should lead the team in important phases of the game. Finding and passing the ball to open teammates has, in general, been difficult for Dallas players.
Perhaps these are the topics of discussion that are apparently taking place during games where Wings players can be seen disagreeing with their head coach. The team’s overall disorientation clearly seems to be related to the struggles of its head coach.
On defense, though, the Wings are even worse, as evident in their third-worst defensive rating. Besides a lack of effort, players will commonly seem clueless, with women like Ogunbowale standing around, just like she does on offense, where Dallas players display their lack of ball movement. There are also just bad defenders like NaLyssa Smith, whose defensive rating is annually very poor.
Takeaway
With Connecticut able to score over 80 points, especially at home against a poor defense, Dallas lacks the ability to score enough points to cover the spread.
The Wings are constant losers because allowing over 80 or 90 points is too much for them, with all of their problems, to overcome.
WNBA Pick: Sun +4 (-105) at BetOnline
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream
Friday, June 20, 2025 – 7:30 PM EDT at Gateway Center
Washington’s Perimeter Defense
It is crucial to assess Washington’s perimeter defense because Atlanta attempts the most three-pointers per game. In two games against Atlanta thus far, the Mystics have allowed 90 and 89 points, respectively. They allowed a combined total of 30 made three-pointers in those two games. This is obviously a big number.
The Mystics repeatedly struggle against offenses that like to focus on shooting threes — Atlanta is just one example. New York is another example. The Liberty recently beat Washington while scoring 86 points and making 10 of their 28 threes.
Overall, the Mystics are 1-4 against teams that rank in the top three in three-point attempts.
Atlanta’s Rim Protection
The one exception actually came against Atlanta. Should this undermine our confidence in the Dream tonight? In that one game, Washington scored 94 points. That offensive output was anomalous, though. The Mystics can’t repeat it.
Playing at home, they shot well beyond themselves, making half of their three-point attempts.
When an offense is hot from deep, then it becomes difficult to guard in the interior as well because defenders have to focus more on covering more space. When the Mystics lost by 33 points a few days ago to Atlanta, they scored all of 56 points. They made few three-pointers — indeed, on the season, they average the fewest three-point makes per game — and struggled to score inside.
The Mystics rely heavily on scoring around the basket, which creates a negative outlook for their offense against a Dream defense that does the second-best job at limiting field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
The matchup unequivocally favors Atlanta. The Dream love to shoot threes and face a vulnerable perimeter defense. They excel at defending the basket and will do so against an offense that primarily wants to score at the basket.
Atlanta just beat Washington by over 30 points a few days ago. Expect a similar result tonight.
WNBA Pick: Dream -9 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
