WNBA Best Bets for July 6: Chicago’s Success Will Be Sky-High Today
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Rainman M.
- July 6, 2025
Top WNBA Pick: Sky +15.5 (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s WNBA action. The later games are my favorite ones to bet on: the Sun will host Las Vegas, and then Chicago travels to face the Lynx. Take a look!
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 4:00 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
Series History
Las Vegas and Connecticut have faced each other twice this season.
- On May 20, the Aces won at Connecticut by 25 points.
- More recently, on June 25, Las Vegas defeated the visiting Sun by 26 points.
These two games suggest that the Aces are clearly superior to the Sun and match up well against them.
A’ja Wilson
Las Vegas relies heavily on center A’ja Wilson. They need her to perform well today because when she doesn’t perform well, the team as a whole struggles.
The Aces are 1-3 in games where she fails to reach 20 points. In the one win, they beat the subpar Mystics by all of three points.
Importantly, Wilson is playing well. In her last game, she amassed 29 points against the Fever. Her outlook is always good against the Sun, who allow the most field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.
Wilson, the centerpiece of Las Vegas’ rim-attacking game, will continue to rank among the WNBA’s leaders in field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.
Bounce-Back Spot
Her strong form explains why the Aces have a solid outlook today despite their last contest. It’s one thing if the Aces are losing matches because Wilson is off her game, but the Aces simply shot poorly against a team in Indiana that defends very well and has a good, balanced offense.
We’ve seen all of this play out before. For example, when they first beat the Sun, they were coming off a 14-point loss to New York.
Let’s be thoughtful bettors and consider what a Connecticut backer would say: the only conceivable reason to like the Sun today is that one could speculate that Las Vegas will underperform against a team that it has already beaten twice in a row. But this is not a valid reason when the Aces are coming off a blowout loss. History shows their determination and their composure in games that directly follow a loss.
Tonight’s game is the ultimate “get-right game” for the Aces, as they face a Connecticut team that, with its league-worst defense and lack of go-to scoring talent, they know they can and will throttle.
WNBA Pick: Aces -18.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 7:00 PM EDT at Target Center
The Spread
Minnesota is favored very heavily tonight: as of Sunday morning, they are 15.5-point favorites.
For a team to win by this many points, it will need to dominate on both sides of the ball. For example, when the Lynx beat Washington by 17 points on July 3, the Lynx scored over 90 points because they happened to shoot well from behind the arc. They also held Washington to 75 points because the Mystics managed to miss 17 of their 20 three-point attempts.
This is the sort of thing that needs to happen for Minnesota to win a game by 17 points. If the three-point shooting falls significantly in the Lynx’s favor, then they might win a game by over 15 points if they match up well against their opponent.
Chicago’s Key Advantage
Let’s say, then, that the Sky somehow have an off day from behind the arc and that the Lynx are hot from deep. Minnesota, to cover the spread, will still need to match up well against Chicago on both sides of the ball.
However, the Sky have a decisive advantage on offense. On offense, Chicago primarily wants to attack the basket. It averages the most field goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket.
The Sky boasts a strong frontcourt that is led by high-profile player Angel Reese, who will bully opponents inside with her physicality, and Elizabeth Williams, a decisive and high-IQ scorer with a lot of different moves to rely on inside.
They will score more than enough points to remain competitive against a Minnesota defense that is primarily strong along the perimeter.
The Minnesota defense’s preference for facing teams that, in complete contrast to Chicago, rely on shooting threes is evident in the team’s last two games. Whereas the Lynx handily beat the Valkyries, who attempt the most threes per game, they lost to an Indiana team that ranks second behind Chicago in field goals attempted within five feet of the basket.
Preferring to score inside, which the Sky do, evidently matters decisively against Minnesota.
WNBA Pick: Sky +15.5 (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
