WNBA Best Bets for July 5: Golden State’s Defense Deserves More Respect
-
Rainman M.
- July 5, 2025
WNBA Pick: Valkyries-Lynx Under 154.5 (+100) at BetOnline
There are two WNBA games on tonight’s betting card, and sports betting sites have released their betting odds for both of them.
The Sparks travel to face the Fever and the Lynx host the Valkyries. Both games are worth wagering on.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 7:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Sparks’ Rematch Trend
Bettors are interested in the Sparks because they beat the Fever in their most recent meeting. However, history shows that a Sparks victory over a team will lead to a victory for that other team in the rematch.
After the Sparks beat Golden State by 17 in their season-opener, they lost the rematch by eight points in overtime.
Los Angeles’ only other win against a team that it subsequently faced again came on May 25 against Chicago. When Chicago played Los Angeles in their rematch, Chicago won by eleven points.
No Clark, No Problem
One might try to say that the Sparks beat Indiana because they exploited the absence of superstar Caitlin Clark, who remains sidelined with a groin injury. But this cannot be correct, because the Fever have looked great without Clark.
They enter today’s game on a two-game winning streak after winning by eight in Dallas before most recently and most impressively thrashing Las Vegas by 27 points. Indiana clearly does not need Clark in order to play well.
So How Did Indiana Lose?
If the Fever didn’t lose to the Sparks because they missed Clark, then why did they lose? They were actually up by as many as ten points in the fourth quarter, which shows that they are capable of beating Los Angeles by twice as many points as the five-point spread.
Their head coach was simply unintelligent. She relied late on a small-ball lineup that allowed the Sparks to make use of their size. One has to expect the Fever head coach to rewatch this game, to recognize her error, and to be smarter tonight.
Indiana in Rematches
Indeed, she is a head coach who prepares her team well in rematch situations. Her Fever are a perfect 4-0 in rematches against a team that beat them in their previous meeting.
Their dominating win over the Aces is only the most recent example. They also achieved revenge in the following games: when they beat the Liberty by 14 on June 14, the Sun on June 17 by 17 points, the Mystics on June 3 by nine points, and the Dream on May 22 in Atlanta by five points.
Their strong wins in these rematch situations justify the great degree of confidence that bettors should have in Indiana tonight.
Takeaway
The spot, being a rematch, clearly favors Indiana. But tonight’s game is, moreover, as simple as this: the Sparks don’t defend well, whereas Indiana does. The Sparks have allowed 92 and 89 points in their last two respective games and now face a Fever team that clearly has plenty of scoring talent even without Clark.
Clark’s teammates are stepping up, with forward Aliyah Boston arguably having the best outlook tonight against a Los Angeles defense that is one of the worst at protecting the interior.
WNBA Pick: Fever -5 (-115) at BetOnline
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT at Target Center
Golden State’s Top-Notch Defense
The Valkyries excel defensively. They rank number two in defensive rating for good reason. The only bad thing that can be said about them is that they have struggled against top offenses.
However, this is not a reason to like Minnesota’s offense tonight, because Golden State’s defense deserves too much respect. The Valkyries always learn from their failures. Hence, their defense was terrible when it first encountered New York’s high-powered offense. But then the Valkyries allowed thirteen fewer points two days later in the rematch.
Golden State likewise learned, for example, from its first meeting against the Sparks. Given this history, it is reasonable to expect the Lynx to struggle to exceed 70 points.
Minnesota’s Perimeter Defense
For the “under” to hit, all Minnesota will have to do is to hold Golden State to under 80 points, which is a total that the Valkyries have failed to attain in four of their six road games this year.
Both exceptions came against the Sparks, who are awful defensively. Whereas the Sparks rank eleventh in defensive rating, Minnesota ranks number one in the category.
Likewise, the Sparks are one of the worst teams at limiting the opposing efficiency of three-point shooters, whereas Minnesota’s perimeter defense is second-best.
Minnesota’s excellent perimeter defense, a product of the ball pressure that its perimeter defenders ably apply and the defensive versatility of Napheesa Collier, will play a decisive role against a Golden State offense that attempts more threes than any other team and will suffer especially tonight for its reliance on three-pointers.
WNBA Pick: Under 154.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
