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WNBA Best Bets for July 13: The Sun Sets Away From Home

Connecticut Sun v New York Liberty
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Top WNBA Pick: Sparks -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Sparks -11.5 (-110)
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The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s WNBA action, and we’re taking a look at two games to find the best value: Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks. Let’s jump in!

Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty

Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 3:00 PM EDT at Barclays Center

Allisha Gray’s Competition for Points

It might seem odd that I want to talk about Rhyne Howard when I am interested in Allisha Gray’s scoring total, but my argument is this: because Howard will struggle to score, other Dream players will score more points; Gray must be the biggest beneficiary of Howard’s scoring struggles.

Howard is, objectively speaking, Gray’s best competition for points. Whereas Gray leads the team in points per game, Howard ranks second in the category.

It is important to note, therefore, that Howard’s scoring outlook today is negative. She sustained a worrisome injury in her team’s last game. Literally, she had to be helped off the court after she hurt her knee.

While she is not on the injury report, any bettor knows that coaches across all sports like to play games with the injury report.

By leaving her off the injury report, Atlanta’s coach wants to foster a perception of a formidable Howard, but knows full well that Howard has sustained multiple injuries lately and is quite battered up. Her physically worn-down condition helps explain why she has failed to reach her scoring average in any of her last four games.

Allisha Gray’s Bounce-Back Spot

Atlanta needs Gray to thrive today — the Dream are going to rely on their leading scorer, especially while Howard is removed from her usual strong self.

Gray is in a great bounce-back spot today after she scored six points in her last game. She always bounces back after a poor performance. When she scored a season-low eleven points on May 22, she amassed 27 points two days later against Dallas. Likewise, she scored 23 points against an Indiana team — the same Fever team that she had previously struggled against — after she had scored eleven points in her last game.

No matter the matchup, Gray proves ready to reassert herself as a formidable scorer.

Sabrina Ionescu

Liberty sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu is also primed to bounce back from behind the arc. One has to expect her to make up for her most recent, unusually poor performance because she is facing an Atlanta defense that has proven unable to contain her.

In two games against the Dream, she combined 7-for-15 from behind the arc. She regularly attempts a lot of threes and will likely attempt even more than the seven or eight threes that she attempted in her earlier games against Atlanta.

Before her last game, she had made 5 of 11 threes against Seattle. This is the type of performance that one must expect from her today against an Atlanta team that has struggled in general to limit the scoring of high-ranking offenses like New York’s.

The Picks

  • Allisha Gray Over 19.5 Points
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 2.5 Three-Pointers

WNBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+320) at BetOnline

Two-Legged Parlay (+320)
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Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 6:00 PM EDT at Crypto.com Arena

Connecticut’s Fade Spot

The Sun are worth fading on the road, as they have lost each of their last five road games by 14 or more points. The fact that they lost their last road game by “only” 14 points might seem to indicate that they’re making some sort of progress on the road.

However, this fact is rather pathetic because of how poorly Seattle started. The Storm were unusually inefficient, as they clearly came out unfocused and played sloppily. They scored all of ten first-quarter points and were behind by six points after the first quarter. Tellingly, they outscored the Sun by 20 points in the remaining three quarters.

Moreover, it might seem like the Sun are not worth fading today, because their opponent is not a great team.

However, this is the wrong way to think about today’s matchup. True, the Sparks aren’t great, but teams that struggle to lose are actually more reliable candidates to achieve a blowout because they are eager to beat up teams when they finally face one that they are able to beat. Los Angeles will have fun today, as it gets to win a game and will win by a lot of points.

Key Matchup Detail

Los Angeles is a team that capably scores well over 80 points in a given game, making it a good candidate in general to win a given game, especially against a soft opponent by upwards of 20 points.

The Sparks like to rely on their frontcourt, as they boast plenty of size, as with 6-6 forward Azura Stevens.

Fittingly, they primarily want to score around the basket — they attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. They will thrive in this space against a Connecticut defense that, lacking adequate rim protection, allows the most field goal makes per game within five feet of the basket.

Takeaway

Whereas the Sparks will easily exceed 80 points, the Sun will fail to exceed 65 points in yet another road game, as they have failed to do in four of its last five road games, with the one exception coming in a game where they allowed 97 points and lost by 16.

Connecticut’s offense lacks scoring talent and lacks the weapons to keep pace with the high-scoring Sparks, such that the Sparks will even be able to relax on defense and still cover the spread.

WNBA Pick: Sparks -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Sparks -11.5 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.