WNBA Pick: Over 159 (–115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
What is it with all these injured players? A’ja Wilson is the latest WNBA superstar to hit the shelf, landing on her right wrist during Tuesday’s game between the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty. The reigning and three-time league MVP sat out the second half, and Las Vegas fell 87-78 to the Liberty as 4.5-point road dogs after being up 42-40 at halftime.
Wilson was due for an MRI on Wednesday, and while results were still pending as we go to press, it appears she’ll sit out Thursday’s tilt between Las Vegas (9-10 SU, 7-12 ATS) and the Washington Mystics (9-10 SU, 10-9 ATS). BetOnline were among those online sportsbooks who opened the Aces as 1-point road faves on their WNBA odds board, despite Wilson being officially listed as “questionable” to face the Mystics.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at EagleBank Arena
What Do We Do About Wilson?
This isn’t the first time we’ve had to tiptoe around Wilson’s injury status. She was in concussion protocol heading into the Aces’ June 15 matchup with the Phoenix Mercury; we recommended the Over for your WNBA picks if Wilson sat, and the Under if she played – which she did not. Final score: PHO 76, LV 70 (Under 164 at the close).
At least our betting logic was sound. Casual fans will likely over-react to Wilson’s absence, as they tend to do when any superstar is taken off the court. Sadly for us, Las Vegas couldn’t make it pay during her previous three-game layoff, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS (not 2-1 SU, as widely reported by ESPN and others who didn’t check their facts) while driving the Under to a 2-1 record, all during Commissioner’s Cup action.
Should we change our strategy for Thursday’s game? Heck no. We’re already avoiding the spread for our WNBA picks, given the unusually large betting public the Aces enjoy as a Vegas representative. The total should be safer for us to fade, although we’d still prefer Wilson were playing so we could hammer the Under instead for old-school betting value.
How Will the Aces Respond?
Very good question. In their first game without Wilson, head coach Becky Hammon replaced her in the starting five with back-up center Elizabeth Kitley, then it was guard Tiffany Mitchell drawing the assignment for the next two games as Las Vegas tried to make up for their lack of offense. Kitley and Mitchell were both subsequently waived on June 30.
Hammon needs to find something that will work. Wilson leads the Aces in scoring at 20.7 points per game, and 24.6 points per 36 minutes; still limited by the torn ACL she suffered in 2023, Kitley only managed 5.5 points/36 while she was with Las Vegas, while Mitchell, who nearly died from sepsis last year, scored just 10.1 points/36.
Bettors appear to have made up their minds that Hammon and the Aces will fail in their quest. Thursday’s early total of 157.5 is one of the lowest they’ve seen all year, down from 165.5 when they hosted Washington on May 23, and 160.5 for their June 26 rematch – also in Las Vegas. Let’s see if we can take advantage of those lowered expectations.
The Pick
There’s a non-zero chance all of this concern is for naught; as I write this, Wilson just posted on social media that she’s “gonna be alright” after undergoing her MRI, but didn’t provide any further details.
Consider waiting until closer to game time for more news, and if Wilson does happen to be made active, switch things up and time your contrarian Under bet accordingly as the posted total rises – in theory – under public pressure before tip-off.
WNBA Pick: Over 159 (–115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
