WNBA Best Bets for August 1: Chase the Sun as Double-Digit Dogs
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Jason Lake
- August 1, 2025
Are you tired of making money yet?
We stubbornly recommended fading the New York Liberty last week as 12.5-point home faves against the Los Angeles Sparks. And many of you did just that, driving New York down to –11 on the WNBA odds board before tip-off. Final score: LA 101, NY 99.
Okay, we did benefit from the early departure of Liberty forward Breanna Stewart, who remains out indefinitely with a bone bruise in her right knee. For any other team, Stewart’s absence might make them an instant follow candidate, but these are the defending WNBA champions we’re dealing with here.
As we go to press, New York is laying 11 points at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) to the Connecticut Sun for Friday’s matchup in Connecticut. You know we have to do it to them.
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena
Why Are People Still Betting on New York?
Because it’s New York.
So what if they’ve dropped each of their three games (including July 26 against L.A.) at 0-2-1 ATS since Stewart was injured? The Liberty still have ample talent on the hoof, including guards Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Cloud. Center Jonquel Jones also made her return in late July from the injured list, and has arguably performed at a higher level than Stewart, the two-time league MVP.
We’re not saying here at the ranch that the Liberty (17-9 SU, 11-13-2 ATS) aren’t good at basketball. It’s all about value, and fading the betting public when they distort the marketplace with all that dead money thrown at their favorite teams.
New York is the largest market in the United States. The Liberty are the defending champs. Of course, we’re going to fade them – as long as they’re facing the right opponents.
Are the Sun the Right Opponents?
Heck yes. We’ve been singing their praises for a while now.
They may be dead-last in the WNBA at 4-21 (12-13 ATS), but that’s partly due to dumb luck. Connecticut is shooting a league-worst 30.7% from behind the arc, and their opponents rank third overall at 34.9% from said distance.
These are high-variance shots, so we can expect at least some regression to the mean over time.
Compare and contrast to the Liberty, second overall from the 3-point range at 35.4% while allowing the fourth-lowest percentage at 32.5%. Maybe New York is indeed that good at shooting – they do rank first from the free-throw line at 83.2%. However, the Sun (81.5%) are third in that department.
That again suggests they’re likely to turn some of those misses into makes going forward.
Let’s also consider Connecticut’s strength of schedule up to now, which has been the second-toughest in the league (plus-1.11 SOS). New York’s schedule (plus-0.24 SOS) hasn’t been cottony-soft by any means, but it has been close to average.
The Pick
There’s a non-zero chance Emma Meesseman will make her debut for the Liberty after arriving in town on Wednesday. However, if they throw Meesseman into the fire that quickly after three years playing in Europe, it might actually help our cause. Her last competitive action was in late June with the Belgian national team, who beat Spain in the final to win their second EuroBasket title in three years.
Still, let’s trust the +11 on the Sun while priced around –110 at the top-rated sportsbooks. Size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
