Which WNBA team should you bet on this Wednesday? On the surface, it’s an easy choice: The only game on the schedule pits the Las Vegas Aces (15-14 SU, 12-17 ATS) against the Golden State Valkyries (14-14 SU, 17-11 ATS), in a matchup between the league’s least and most profitable teams against the spread.
Taking Golden State as 6.5-point home dogs based on the current WNBA odds seems like a no-brainer.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries
Wednesday, August 06, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Before we unload the college fund on this game, let’s do that thing we do, and make sure this ground is indeed fertile enough for our WNBA picks.
Injuries and other absences will leave both teams short-handed this Wednesday; the Aces also wiped the floor with Golden State (+9.5 away) 101-77 when they met this past Sunday. It could be a sign of things to come – even if the Valkyries have all the betting value this time around.
Should I Always Bet on the Underdogs?
Maybe not every dog in the yard. But as a general rule, underdogs tend to perform better than favorites when it comes to sports betting; casual fans focus too much on wins and losses, which don’t always do a great job of measuring a team’s true performance level.
The WNBA happens to be in a boom period right now, so we’re seeing lots of “dead money” come into the marketplace from newcomers who have yet to learn all the ins and outs of basketball betting – and most never will. Sure enough, underdogs are 95-88-2 ATS across the league this year as we go to press.
Ah, but that’s still not quite enough to make these dogs profitable. That ATS record translates to a 51.9% success rate, still below the 52.4% we need to clear the standard –110 vigorish applied to WNBA spreads. We need to throw some more betting angles on the fire before we start cooking.
Should I Always Fade the Aces?
Again, maybe not every game, but this is another important factor we need to consider. There’s tons of public money coming in on the Aces from their home fans, Las Vegas being the gambling capital of the Western Hemisphere and all that. Compare and contrast to the Valkyries, who are in their inaugural WNBA campaign – even if they do have a hot crowd at the Chase Center.
Then you have our usual regression targets here at the ranch: 3-point shooting and strength of schedule. Golden State sits second from the bottom in 3-pointers at 31.4%, despite ranking fourth overall from the free-throw line at 80.7%. That suggests the Valkyries are “due” for some better results from behind the arc, at least in the long run.
The Aces, meanwhile, are in the middle of the pack at 32.9% from downtown, just below the WNBA average of 33.4%. We’d have more confidence in our pick if Las Vegas were shooting better than expectation; as for strength of schedule, the Aces (plus-0.31 SOS at Basketball Reference) and Valkyries (plus-0.09 SOS) have again been close to league-average, so there’s not much there to work with either.
The Pick
As much as we like Golden State (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS versus the Aces) in this spot, we also have to temper our enthusiasm because of forwards Monique Billings (ankle) and Kayla Thornton (knee), neither of whom will play Wednesday.
But at least the Aces are still without forward Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, who likely won’t make her Las Vegas debut until the playoffs after giving birth to her second child on July 1.
We’re backing the Valkyries +6.5 at -110 odds, available at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). As always, size your bets accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
