WNBA Best Bets for August 16: The Case of the Missing MVPs

Breanna Stewart was named the WNBA Most Valuable Player in 2018 and 2023. As we go to press, Napheesa Collier is the –350 favorite at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) to win this year’s MVP.

Former teammates at UConn and co-founders of the Unrivaled 3-on-3 basketball league, Stewart and Collier are two of the biggest stars in the game right now. They even made the TIME100 list for 2025.

You’ll have to hit the magazine rack if you want to see them this weekend. The New York Liberty (21-12 SU, 12-19-2 ATS) said Thursday that Stewart will be out until late August with a bone bruise in her right knee; three days earlier, the Minnesota Lynx (27-5 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) announced that Collier will miss at least the next two weeks with a sprained right ankle.

Losing both Stewart and Collier might take some of the starch out of Saturday’s Liberty-Lynx contest, but it adds betting value for our WNBA picks.

The fine folks at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) have opened their total at 165.5 points, with their usual –108 bargain price for vigorish; we’re recommending the Under here at the home office, and it’s not just because these two superstars will be absent – although that is part of the puzzle.

Why Not Bet the Over?

According to basic old-school handicapping, the Over has value here because both sides are missing their MVPs. If only one were injured, we’d be tempted to follow that player’s team, counting on the betting public to overreact and bet the other side too heavily.

Maybe this dynamic will hold up against the total, as casual fans hammer the Under with Stewart (18.3 points per game) and Collier (23.5 points per game) on the shelf?

Maybe. In theory, these recreational bettors won’t appreciate how well both these stars perform on defense. But Stewart made the WNBA All-Defensive First Team each of the past three seasons; Collier is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.

That’s about as high-profile as defense gets.

As it turns out, the closing total at the top-rated sportsbooks actually rose from 167 to 168 when Collier joined Stewart in sick bay for their most recent tilt, Sunday’s 83-71 win by the Lynx (+4 away). This was after Collier dumped 30 points on the Liberty in their July 30 game, which went Over when Minnesota (–7 at home) prevailed 100-93.

So much for basic old-school handicapping.

Then Why Has the Total Gone Down?

Because these two teams combined for 154 points last Sunday.

Was that an aberration, or a sign of things to come when they lock horns again Saturday night? We can’t lean on 3-point regression this time if we’re taking the Over; Minnesota shot 10-of-21 (48%) from downtown in their previous bout, and New York was 8-of-24 (33%).

Let’s look instead at the pace.

According to Basketball Reference, these two clubs put in just 74.4 possessions per 48 minutes (they only play 40 minutes in the WNBA, so be careful here if you’re doing the math at home) last Sunday, down from 80.1 on July 30.

We’re betting on more of the same for Game 3.

The Pick

It’s too bad we don’t get to see a true rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals, which the Liberty won in five despite going 1-4 ATS.

That inherent betting value with the Lynx would normally make things very easy for our WNBA picks; we think there’s still some juice with Under 165.5, but keep an eye on the consensus numbers at BMR to see which way the basketball lines are moving, and may the sphere be with you.

Liberty/Lynx Under 165.5 (–108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.