WNBA Best Bets for August 13: Don’t Be Fooled By Storm Slump

If it weren’t for bad luck, the Seattle Storm would have no luck at all. The Storm (16-16 SU, 14-18 ATS) have lost five straight games SU and ATS to fall back to .500 in the Western Conference; however, those five defeats were by a combined 17 points. It hardly seems fair.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Dream (20-11 SU, 18-13 ATS) have won five straight at 4-1 ATS to move into a first-place tie in the East with the New York Liberty. Granted, only one of those games was particularly close, but this dynamic still gives us a tasty betting opportunity on Wednesday’s WNBA odds board, with Seattle opening as a 1-point home dog at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).

What’s Wrong With the Storm?

Maybe nothing in particular. It would be easy enough to blame them for coughing up an 87-80 lead over the Los Angeles Sparks this past Sunday with under three minutes to play, losing 94-91 as 5-point road favorites. But a combination of fouls and timely 3-point shooting allowed the Sparks to climb within a half-game of Seattle for the No. 8 overall spot in the WNBA standings – only the Top 8  qualify for the playoffs.

Ah, 3-point shooting. Let’s take a closer look at this five-game stretch, and how both the Storm and their opponents have fared from behind the arc:

• Aug. 1: LA 27%, SEA 34%
• Aug. 3: IND 18%, SEA 13%
• Aug. 5: MIN 41%, SEA 33%
• Aug. 8: SEA 29%, LV 45%
• Aug. 10: SEA 38%, LA 52%

Those last three games have been especially cruel to Seattle. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to 3-point defense, ranking seventh out of the 13 WNBA teams at 33.3% allowed, but the Lynx, Aces and Sparks each went above and beyond. Positive regression should take care of this, at least in the long run; the August 5 trade for four-time all-defensive guard Brittney Sykes should also bear fruit at some point.

What About Atlanta’s Defense?

It’s very good. Atlanta ranks second overall with a 48.1% effective field goal percentage against, and they’re first in defensive rebound rate at 79.8%. If those numbers weren’t so dominant, we might be inclined to recommend Over 160 for Wednesday’s WNBA picks at the top sportsbooks.

But as they say, what’s good for the goose is good for the other goose. Let’s run the same 3-point analysis with the Dream and their opponents for this five-game winning streak:

• July 30: ATL 42%, DAL 50%
• Aug. 1: PHO 25%, ATL 42%
• Aug. 3: WAS 25%, ATL 39%
• Aug. 7: ATL 43%, CHI 31%
• Aug. 10: ATL 28%, PHO 26%

Very interesting indeed. In those first four games, the Dream eclipsed their season average of 33.8% (No. 4 overall) from downtown; at the other end, three of five opponents shot below Atlanta’s allowed average of 33.4%. Regression may not have made much difference in the final results, but it certainly could this Wednesday against tougher competition.

The Pick

Speaking of competition, the Storm (minus-0.35 SOS at Basketball Reference) have faced a somewhat average schedule this year in terms of strength, while the Dream (minus-0.68 SOS) have had it relatively easy – especially in this five-game sample with wins over Dallas, Washington, and Chicago.

The last time these teams met on July 3, Atlanta was a 1-point home fave in their 80-79 loss to the Storm; getting Seattle at the same +1 on their own court, with Sykes in the lineup, is a bargain we simply can’t pass up here at the ranch. Bet accordingly.

Seattle Storm +1 (-105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.