WNBA Angel Reese Best Prop Bets June 27: Exploit Golden State’s Thinned Interior Defense

Angel Reese’s Primary Means of Scoring

In order to figure out how many points Angel Reese will score tonight for Chicago, we need to understand how she tends to score.

Reese’s primary means of scoring are points at the basket.

Predicting Reese’s point total is, compared to doing it for other players, a rather fruitful endeavor because Reese relies to an extreme extent on scoring within five feet of the basket. She attempts the second-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket, which means that we can simply focus on evaluating her outlook against a single component of Golden State’s defense, its interior defense.

Her versatility as a scorer might seem to make predictions difficult, but this is not the case. She is someone who can beat bigger or smaller defenders because she possesses different skills and physical qualities that enable her to do so. To beat bigger defenders — which is not something that she’ll need to do as much of against a notoriously small Golden State defense — she can use her characteristic quickness to circumvent them.

To beat smaller defenders, she can use her strength and energy, which are the same traits that enable her to withstand contact as she attacks the basket. These traits and this ability are evident in the high free-throw total that she reliably demonstrates.

Because of her versatility as a scorer and her ability to succeed against both bigger and smaller defenders, we don’t need to look so much at the specific physical skillset of opposing individual defenders. Rather, we need to focus on asking whether the opposing team is able to contain her.

How Individual Scorers Fare Inside Against Golden State’s Defense

It might seem reasonable to look at the success level of the opposing team’s defense against offenses insofar as the latter attempt shots within five feet of the basket.

But keep in mind that all different kinds of players in a given team will attempt shots within five feet of the opposing basket. Guards that typically focus on shooting threes, for example, might occasionally stray inside and attempt a shot near the basket. Those players, however, might generally fare differently than players who are more like Reese, such that understanding their typical levels of success at attempting shots around the basket is not useful to predicting Reese’s.

Soft Spot in the Paint

Crucially, we can see how forwards who regularly attempt shots within five feet of the basket have fared against the Valkyries’ defense.

For example, one spot ahead of Reese, Dearica Hamby attempts the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Her team, the Sparks, always scores well over 70 points against the Valkyries largely because of her scoring contributions. She’s always efficient against them. In her last two games against them, she combined for 45 points via 16 field goal makes out of 32 field goals attempts. She scored 14, 25, and 20 points in those three respective games.

Likewise, the player who attempts the next-most field goals per game — of the players who have competed against Golden State — is Indiana forward Aliyah Boston, and she likewise thrived against Golden State’s defense. Boston scored 17 points on seven field goal makes out of eleven field goal attempts in her team’s game against Golden State. The Fever, largely thanks to her, scored 77 points.

Golden State’s Vulnerable Interior Defense

Forwards who rely heavily on scoring around the basket are able to succeed against Golden State’s defense because it is vulnerable inside.

Golden State’s interior defense is vulnerable because it lacks well-sized defenders.

At this time, the Valkyries are especially vulnerable inside because their frontcourt is depleted. Starting forward Janelle Salaun is currently representing her team at EuroBasket. As evident in her strong defensive rating, she is somebody whose defensive ability is valued by her team Golden State.

Takeaway

Angel Reese is a high-profile player for good reason. She is her team’s third-leading scorer largely because she so ably scores at the basket, thriving alike against both smaller and larger defenders.

Her outlook tonight is particularly strong because she encounters a small and depleted Golden State frontcourt that regularly struggles against forwards who, like Reese, rely heavily on scoring within five feet of the basket.

As it did for other forwards, Reese’s success inside will entail success for her team’s offense. Expect her and Chicago to score a lot of points. Build the Reese point total “over” and Sky point total “over” parlay at BetOnline.

The Parlay

• Angel Reese Over 12.5 Points
• Sky Over 64.5 Points

WNBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+130) at BetOnline

Two-Legged Parlay (+130)

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