WNBA Angel Reese Best Prop Bets for July 29:  Chicago Soars With Angel Returning

“Guess Who’s Back, Back Again?”

Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese is slated to return to action tonight.

Reese last played on July 22, which means that she missed her team’s last two games.

For tonight’s contest, she is listed as ‘probable’ with her back injury.

Chicago’s ongoing losing streak does not represent what it can do as a team because Reese’s absence certainly helped perpetuate that streak.

In her last eight games of action, she is averaging 17.5 points per game even though four of those affairs came against the WNBA’s top team, Minnesota, which also has the WNBA’s top defense largely due to its interior defense.

Another of those eight games came against a Golden State defense that, compared to every other WNBA team, does the best job at limiting field goal makes within five feet of the basket, which is the space in which Reese almost exclusively wants to attempt her field goals.

Coming back from a short, two-game absence, Reese won’t be rusty.

Expect her to return to her top form against what will be a relatively soft test, a test that is so soft that her Sky remain worthy of your confident investment even if Reese’s ‘probable’ designation turns out to be misrepresentative and she does not return.

Reese vs. Mystics

We already know how Reese will fare against the Mystics tonight because she and her Sky have already played them twice.

On June 17, she scored 17 points in a 79-72 loss in Chicago.

More recently, she scored 22 points in a 81-79 loss on July 8 in Washington.

Her scoring output as well as her rebounding prowess in both games show that she can be counted on to dominate the interior against Washington’s defense.

Washington’s Defensive Weakness

Washington’s most recent games show that the Mystics’ defense is vulnerable to opposing offenses that focus on thriving inside, which is crucial to note because Reese’s success in a given game will be conditioned by her ability to score inside.

It is telling for tonight that once last week and once two weeks ago Washington suffered its two worst defensive performances of the season in what were clear losses to a subpar opponent.

In those two games, the opposing Sparks amassed 99 and 93 points, respectively.

These two performances are telling for tonight because the Sparks rely more than any other team on scoring inside. Fittingly, they thrived inside against Washington’s poor interior defense, with different players like Dearica Hamby and Rickea Jackson — who are both forwards like Reese is — scoring over 20 points.

Los Angeles’ ridiculous efficiency inside against Washington creates a promising outlook for a Chicago offense that is one of three offenses to attempt more than 25 field goals per game within five feet of the basket.

Reese’s Centrality 

With Chicago missing key offensive players, Reese will be central to her team’s offensive outcome tonight.

Her Sky will be pumped to have her back, and they will surely be eager to re-incorporate her into an offense that heavily depends on her, as her team’s second-leading scorer.

There will not be as much competition for scoring for Chicago’s rim-attackers as there was for Los Angeles, although there still remained room for different Sparks forwards to exceed 20 points against Washington’s defense.

Reese and fellow inside scorer Kamilla Cardoso will share primary rim-attacking duties tonight, and both will do a great job of scoring.

Building Off Their Last Performance

Chicago will succeed on offense tonight, which will reinforce and be reinforced by Reese’s individual success as a scorer.

While the Sky have dealt with injuries to other players, their struggles were never going to continue to the same extent.

In their last game, the Sky scored 78 points against Indiana, whose defensive rating is nearly identical to Washington’s.

This scoring output reflects the ability of other players to step up for their injured teammates and the visible fact that Chicago has learned to play well despite those absences.

Before July 16, which is when Chicago’s injury troubles became severe with Ariel Atkins being sidelined, the Sky had scored 75 points in ten straight games while facing top-caliber defenses.

This is the Sky offense that we must expect tonight with the matchup dictating that its outlook is so strong in the interior.

Sky vs. Mystics Series History

I like Chicago as a whole tonight because it has proven to be reliable against Washington.

Oddsmakers fail to account for Chicago’s success against Washington when they favor the Mystics by seven points.

While the Mystics did, one time, beat Chicago by seven points, this is something that will not repeat itself, because they beat the Sky by that many points by converting three-pointers at an anomalously high rate. Averaging by far the fewest three-point makes per game, Washington’s offense is grossly one-dimensional.

Takeaway

Chicago’s offense is back in its groove, and it will build off its 78-point output now that Reese is healthy again and now that its matchup is so propitious.

Even if Reese does not play tonight, Chicago’s ability to play the Mystics close even in Washington is not exclusively a product of Reese’s strong play. In fact, the Sky stayed within two points of the Mystics in their last meeting, which took place in Washington, without Cardoso, who had scored 18 points against them on July 17.

Chicago will thus be sufficiently healthy tonight to continue its success against Washington, to which Reese will contribute greatly if the expectation that she will return tonight proves accurate.

Let’s roll with a parlay: Angel Reese Over 15.5 Points and Chicago Sky Over 70.5 Team Total at +150.

Two-Legged Parlay (+150)

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Also, grab the Sky +7 at -112 — both bets offer solid value based on the matchup.

Sky +7 (-112)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.