NFL Pick: 2023 Washington Commanders Over 6½ Wins +105 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Washington Commanders are still projected to finish last in the NFC East according to odds at the top sportsbooks. The team’s over/under win total is only 6.5 wins, which is near the bottom of the league.
Some of the low expectations may be the decision to start the season with 2nd-year quarterback Sam Howell, a 5th-round pick with only a single start to his name. But he has won the job, and if you caught any action this preseason, he looks adequate so far. He was also productive last preseason as a rookie, but the real games can always be a different story.
But head coach Ron Rivera is looking for his first winning season since he was in Carolina in 2017, and he may be running out of chances in Washington as this is already his 4th season there.
Can Howell be the surprise hit of the year in new coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s offense, or is this another ho-hum season from a bottom-rung franchise in the NFC East?
The Changes That Matter
The Commanders can feel comfortable with the state of the defense, but the big changes are happening on offense with a new coordinator and quarterback sure to draw some attention this year.
Eric Bieniemy Gets His Shot
For the last several coaching cycles, Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has been a hot name that has done many interviews, but no one has ever given him a head coaching job in the NFL.
Maybe his interview skills are not up to par, but the common criticisms and skepticisms are that Andy Reid is the true brains of the operation in Kansas City, Bieniemy was not the play-caller week after week, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce can make anyone look good with their all-world talent.
Well, that all may be true, but if Bieniemy can bring his offense to Washington and transform this unit with Sam Howell at quarterback, then you can expect him to possibly win the Assistant Coach of the Year award for 2023. The head coach job somewhere may be just around the corner too.
Health Concerns And Possible Replacements
But before he proves it, Bieniemy does have some challenges ahead of him. We get into Howell in the next section, but the Commanders have to deal with a turf toe injury for No. 1 wideout Terry McLaurin. He is questionable for Week 1 already, but hopefully this is not a lingering issue for the team’s best receiver.
Going to Logan Thomas and John Bates at tight end is a massive step down from Travis Kelce, but hopefully Thomas can stay healthy as he rarely has done in his career.
With the health issues and concerns for McLaurin and Thomas, wide receiver Jahan Dotson could be the breakout star in this offense. He already showed flashes as a rookie with 4 touchdowns by Week 4, but injury threw him off track. He finished strong though with 68.8 yards per game and 3 touchdown catches in his final 5 games.
Bieniemy also has some players from Kansas City who should know his offense well like right tackle Andrew Wylie and backup wideout Byron Pringle.
Is Sam Howell Going to Work Out?
The Commanders are certainly taking a risk by giving the starting quarterback job to Sam Howell, who was only a 5th-round pick with 1 start last year. This type of move is almost unheard of for a team heading into a season. You have to go back to the 2016 Broncos starting Trevor Siemian, a 2nd-year player who was a 7th-round pick, to find a similar situation of a young quarterback winning the job with minimal draft capital or experience.
Siemian took over a Super Bowl-winning team after Peyton Manning retired. The Commanders are not up to that level, but you can see there is some talent on both sides of the ball to work with after a .500 season.
By now, we should probably know better to take the preseason with a grain of salt, but it is hard to deny Howell has looked good running Bieniemy’s offense this August. In 2 preseason games, Howell is 28-of-37 for 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. He helped end Baltimore’s 24-game winning streak in the preseason last Monday with multiple scoring drives in the 1st half.
Howell is only 6’1” and does not have the arm talent of Mahomes, but he has shown adequate mobility to make things happen and get the ball out on time. With North Carolina, he was a 3-year starter with 10,283 yards and 92 touchdown passes, so he is not a Trey Lance or Anthony Richardson (Colts rookie) type of project.
But he is a project, and it will be fun to watch how Bieniemy can do his best to turn Howell into a poor man’s Mahomes. Even a dirt-poor man’s Mahomes might be enough for over 6.5 wins if this goes well.
Defense Enhances the Secondary
Jack Del Rio returns as defensive coordinator. You might not be able to trust him against elite quarterbacks, but his unit got the job done against most of the lesser offenses on the schedule last year. They even hit the turnover jackpot in upset wins over the Eagles and Cowboys.
The Commanders have spent many 1st-round picks on the defensive front over the years, and most of those players are still there for 2023. But this year they spent a 1st-round pick on the secondary to add corner Emmanuel Forbes. He should be a Week 1 starter and add some strength to this unit that lacks a real household name.
The Commanders have drafted 10 of their 11 projected defensive starters this year, with only linebacker Cody Barton coming over from Seattle this year. This is on Rivera and Del Rio to continue developing these players as many have been around for multiple years now.
Nose tackle Daron Payne just made his first Pro Bowl, but Chase Young, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft, has been limited to 12 games since his rookie year and needs to have a big season for this unit to take the next step.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The gut has been saying to take the under, but that preseason Kool-Aid is starting to taste good after seeing the way Howell has performed. The McLaurin injury is a little concerning right now, but Dotson really could emerge as a No. 1 type of wideout himself this season.
But what does the schedule say? Being a distant favorite in the division is never fun, and it seems unlikely that this team can leapfrog the more talented Eagles and Cowboys this year. Getting over the Giants hump is very doable, though.
Washington has a fantastic chance to start 2-0 with the easiest Week 1 game of any team in hosting Arizona, which is projected to have the worst record in 2023. Then a trip to Denver is winnable, especially if Russell Wilson’s favorite wideout Jerry Jeudy is out for the Broncos with his own preseason injury.
Can this team beat a Chicago team at home in Week 5 that it held to 7 points last year? Sure. Trips to the Rams (Week 15), Falcons (Week 6), and Seahawks (Week 10) also should see this team add something to its win total.
It just feels inevitable that at least one of these unknown, non-rookie NFC quarterbacks (Howell, Jordan Love in Green Bay, Desmond Ridder in Atlanta) will succeed this year. Why not Howell running Bieniemy’s offense with some solid-skill players?
Also, Rivera has won over 6.5 games in 9-of-12 seasons in his career, so 7-10 is right up his alley. The Commanders as a franchise have gone over 6.5 wins in 7-of-8 seasons since 2015. Purgatory is just what this team does.
But with better than even betting odds at BetOnline, the best Commanders bet this year is over 6.5 wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Washington Commanders Over 6½ Wins +105 at BetOnline
2022 Recap: How to Finish .500 in the 17-Game Era
Rivera’s Washington teams have been plagued at the quarterback position so much that Taylor Heinicke in 2021 was the only time in 3 years that Rivera has had a quarterback break 2,000 yards passing in a season.
Maybe this team would have made the playoffs last year if Heinicke was given a chance to start the season as QB1, but the Commanders followed the mistakes of the Eagles and Colts by thinking Carson Wentz was a franchise quarterback instead of a fraud.
The Commanders started 2-4 with the offense struggling behind Wentz, who injured his finger in a 12-7 win over the Bears. This led to Heinicke taking the job, and he did a solid job of managing the game, converting some key 3rd downs, and taking advantage of solid defensive play.
The highlight of the season was ending Philadelphia’s 8-0 start with an upset win as a 10.5-point underdog on a Monday night. Heinicke and the offense played lights out on 3rd down, and the Eagles had 4 uncharacteristic turnovers, more than they had in their first 8 games of the season combined.
Saying Goodbye to Playoff Hopes
The upset got the Commanders back to 5-5, then they won their next 2 games to get to 7-5 before crucial matchups with the rival Giants. But this was the point of the year where Washington really blew its playoff chances as the Giants would eventually secure the No. 6 seed with a 9-7-1 record.
That tie came against Washington in a game the Commanders came back to tie late, but neither team did anything great in overtime, so it ended in a 20-20 tie. Despite getting a bye week to prepare for the rematch at home, the offense was even flatter and came up short on the final drive in the red zone in a 20-12 loss.
This team could have been in New York’s place with a win there, but instead, the Giants got the playoff spot. The Commanders lost to the 49ers as expected, but it made no sense why Rivera thought to bench Heinicke after losing to an elite team and No. 1 defense.
Going back to Wentz against Cleveland went exactly as expected with 3 turnovers and a 24-10 loss. Washington was eliminated from the playoffs. Rookie Sam Howell got the Week 18 start, and behind a great defensive performance, the Commanders upset Dallas 26-6. Howell was not spectacular, but he showed poise and mobility in the win.
In the end, the 2022 Commanders finished 8-8-1, the first team to finish with a .500 winning percentage in the 17-game era.
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