Warriors vs. Timberwolves NBA Playoffs Game 2 Best Bets: The Wolves Are Sharpening Their Claws

Golden State’s Game 1 Point Total

It is telling that the Warriors were only able to score 99 points in Game 1, even though they had an anomalous advantages that they won’t have again.

First of all, Steph Curry scored 13 points. In Game 2, he will score zero points, as he has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

Draymond Green’s 18 points, twelve of which came from three pointers, were unbelievable. He averaged nine points in the regular season and converted 32.5 percent of his three-point attempts. Before Game 7 against Houston, he had yet to reach nine points in a single playoff game this year. He is not a scorer, never has been known as one, and is sure to decline in productivity.

Overall, they converted an unusually high frequency of three-point attempts. This conversion rate is statistically certain to decline in alignment with their lower season-long average.

With Steph unavailable, Green declining, and their three-point conversion rate dropping, the Warriors will struggle to reach 90 points.

NBA Pick: Warriors Under 95.5 Points (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Warriors Under 95.5 Points (-115)

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Guarding Buddy Hield

Jaden McDaniels stated that Buddy Hield needs to be treated like Steph Curry. With Curry gone, and given Hield’s explosive Game 1 performance that relied extensively on Minnesota’s lack of respect for him, we must expect the Timberwolves to make Hield struggle in Game 2.

This is, after all, Buddy Hield and not Steph Curry. Hield does not have Curry’s famous levels of ball-handling, off-ball movement, and shooting.

Minnesota’s defense matches up well against Golden State’s offense because the Warriors rely very extensively on making threes, and the Timberwolves are one of the best teams at limiting opposing three-point makes.

They boast multiple excellent perimeter defenders, including McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The former has been named an All-Defensive Team selection. The latter is well-known for his excellent defense. With these personnel, they are well-equipped to limit Hield.

Hield, who also thrived in Game 7 against Houston, in any case, has an extensive history of seeing his three-point conversion rate decline after two straight strong shooting performances — see October 27, for example, when he was 1-for-9 from deep.

In Game 1, Minnesota’s head coach simply failed to adjust his scouting report on the fly, which he needed to do after Curry exited the game. Curry’s absence thus created a sort of advantage for the Warriors, which contributed to their ability to reach 99 points.

Minnesota’s defense will certainly be better prepared in Game 2.

NBA Pick: Buddy Hield Under 14.5 Points (-105) at Bovada

Buddy Hield Under 14.5 Points (-105)

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Golden State’s Deficient Supporting Cast

It has been evident throughout this postseason that the Warriors depend massively on Butler and Curry, even while both players are banged-up.

In addition to Hield (as well as Green) failing to step up again tonight, Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody will continue to struggle.

Golden State’s two-point conversion rate was under 40 percent in Game 1 largely because both players proved so inept when trying to drive toward the basket. Especially against a strong defense like Minnesota’s with its length and versatile bigs, both players will clearly struggle to create their own shot and really need someone overwhelmingly good like Curry to draw the defense’s attention.

Rudy Gobert, four-time Defensive Player of the Year selection, obviously makes things difficult in the paint for scorers who are better than Podziemski and Moody.

Bounce-Back for Minnesota’s Offense

In Game 1, Minnesota’s offense looked so bad because it experienced rust and let-down energy following its big win over the Lakers.

We can’t let what Minnesota showed in Game 1 cause us to forget that the Timberwolves remain one of the very best teams at converting three-point attempts efficiently.

The Timberwolves have a deep group of efficient three-point shooters that includes superstar Anthony Edwards and that extends to lesser-known role players like Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo.

Minnesota scored so few points in Game 1 because those players underperformed from behind the arc. Overall, they missed eleven wide-open and twelve open three-point attempts.

But even inside the arc, they missed layups and other typically highly makable shot attempts next to the basket.

As evident in conversion rate comparison, the Timberwolves had more success inside the arc than Golden State because of guys like Jaden McDaniels, who they really needed to feed more. He made six of his nine two-point field goal attempts in Game 1.

Minnesota matches up well against a Golden State team that forces opposing offenses to attempt mid-range shots because the Timberwolves have been efficient all year when attempting shots 5-14 feet away from the basket. They are thus even fine when they don’t get to the rim in this matchup.

Replacing their Game 1 rust with Game 2 sharpness will thus allow for both greater shooting behind the arc and enhanced efficiency around the basket as well as in the mid-range. These improvements will then mutually reinforce each other. Better three-point shooting will also keep their opponent from simply daring them to shoot threes. The whole floor will open up.

NBA Pick: Jaden McDaniels to Score 15+ Points (+135) at Bovada

Jaden McDaniels to Score 15+ Points (+135)

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Takeaway

Minnesota’s elite rim protection and its collection of excellent perimeter defenders will help ensure that the Warriors, who won’t shoot as well from deep or be able to count on Green and Hield as extensively, with their deficient supporting cast and their beat-up star-power will fail to reach 90 points.

Minnesota will easily cover the spread just by scoring around 110 points. It will attain this point total with a better performance, encompassing less rust and greater sharpness, from its superstar Edwards and its deep team that boasts strong inside scoring and efficient three-point shooting. They will take advantage of the good looks that they will continue to get with the individual shot-creation of guys like Edwards and the more fluid ball movement that they showed against the Lakers.

A bonus consideration will be that Minnesota can leverage its size with guys like Gobert to do better on the glass against small-ball Golden State and, as a reward for its greater effort, to keep the Warriors from accumulating as many second-chance points.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves -10.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Timberwolves -10.5 (-115)

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