UFC Vegas 28 Plus Money Picks: UFC Underdog Betting Predictions & Best UFC Prop Bet

David Manyun
June 1, 2021

Find the best value in our UFC plus-money value predictions of the night. The UFC in Vegas 28: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai main card UFC Odds are available. Read on for our complete betting preview and attempts to beat the bookie in this weekend’s valuable plus-money picks, including updated odds and our free expert UFC betting predictions.

Ilir Latifi vs. Tanner Boser

UFC Heavyweight Bout

Saturday, June 05, 2021 – 11:05 PM EDT at the UFC Apex

Ilir “The Sledgehammer” Latifi

Record: 14-8-0

Born: Sweden

Age: 37

Height: 5’10

Reach: 75.0”

Gym: Allstars Training Center

Notable Gym Partners: Alexander Gustafsson & Khamzat Chimaev

Times Cashed as the UFC Underdog: -105 vs. OSP, +185 vs. Tyson Pedro

It would be simple to discredit the powerhouse that is Ilir Latifi. Riding a 3-fight losing streak, aged 37, does not present much confidence in a betting angle for the Swedish native.

Highly skilled wrestling practitioner Curtis Blaydes failed to takedown Derrick Lewis; guess who didn’t? Ilir Latifi! He’s now finding his feet in the heavyweight division after a close contest against the current contender for the title, Derrick Lewis. The three-fight streak should be taken with a pinch of salt, as Latifi remains a dangerous threat in the heavyweight division.

Tanner Boser, without a doubt, holds a significant speed and striking advantage. Boser is not the largest-sized heavyweight and could potentially make a drop to light heavyweight if needed. This leads me to believe that he will struggle versus the grappling power of Latifi, especially given the fact Lewis was dumped on his head by the Swede.

The game plan for Latifi is blatantly apparent; utilize the grappling offense and make this fight a draining ground battle versus the striker in Tanner Boser. Maintain the takedown attempts, land the ground strikes, and continue to play this game for the full fifteen minutes.

UFC Underdog Bet: Ilir Latifi to win (+170) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza

UFC Welterweight Bout

Saturday, June 05, 2021 - 11:05 PM EDT at the UFC Apex

Since his domineering career started under the UFC banner in 2013, Santiago Ponzinibbio has an ultra-impressive resume that should strike fear into the welterweight division. A 7-fight win streak from 2015-2018 came to a sudden halt once injuries began to plague the fierce Argentinian striker.

Affiliated with American Top Team, many critics (including myself) had confidence that his return to the octagon earlier this year would be triumphant – how wrong were we? Jingliang Li was a quick reminder of how time outside the cage can be detrimental to a fighter’s career progression. Jingliang finished the former top-ten ranked welterweight with a devastating left hook during the first round of his three-year layoff.

Although 34 years of age isn’t the biggest concern, we now begin to wonder if the once top-prospect is now beyond his fighting prime when combined with a lack of activity.

One contestant who is undoubtedly heading towards his prime fighting years is the challenger, Miguel Baeza. The 28-year-old with a 10-0 professional record has been impressive since his Dana White Contender Series debut. Upon debuting for the UFC, his mean streak has flourished, finishing all his fights within the first two rounds.

When we glance at the under one and a half rounds, I’m seeing value in Baeza capitalising on the now wary version of Ponzinibbio. He’s returning to the octagon after a vicious knockout too soon, in my opinion. If you believe the 7-minute limit is too short, Baeza to win inside the distance is another plus money play I cannot argue against when hunting for a value play this weekend.

UFC Vegas 28 Prop Bet: Under 1 and ½ rounds (+135) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

Alternative Vegas 28 Prop Bet: Baeza inside the distance