UFC Nashville Main Card Best Bets: Betting on Violence in Tennessee
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David Manyun
- July 11, 2025
Top UFC Pick: Bonfim Wins Inside the Distance (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Thankfully, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to our television screens this week, as a Saturday without the octagon action last weekend was brutal.
The Volunteer State is preparing for a banger of a fight card, including Stephen Thompson, Gabriel Bonfim, Junior Tafa, and Tuco Tokkos, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs in these bouts at top sportsbooks.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Nashville main card analysis, the latest betting odds, and UFC predictions.
UFC Nashville Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 06:00 PM EDT
- Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira (UFC Heavyweight Bout)
Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Nashville Welterweight Main Card Bout
Stephen Thompson
Although it pains me to say it, I think it’s time we start having the conversation regarding Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson’s longevity, and how he’s likely considering retirement at the age of 42.
Returning from back-to-back stoppage losses (Shavkat Rakhmonov and Joaquin Buckley) for the first time in his career isn’t a good sign. While he’ll forever be a fan-favorite for his karate background, unique striking style, and humble personality, these factors haven’t been worth the risk at the sportsbooks of late.
- Thompson Pro MMA Record: 17-8-1
- Thompson KOs: 8
- Thompson Submissions: 1
Gabriel Bonfim
Just four years back, I would’ve laughed at a Gabriel Bonfim -400 moneyline price going up against Wonderboy. Still, age waits for no man, and as a blood-thirsty, fight-finishing menace whose just 27-years-old is primed to make a statement this weekend versus an aging veteran that’s looked a shell of his former durable self of late.
Yes, Thompson will be the most experienced and technically sound opponent of Bonfim’s career to date. Still, I believe the Brazilian youngster, with 16 of his 17 professional career wins ending by KO/TKO or submission, is catching the veteran and stepping-stone fight at the perfect time.
- Bonfim Pro MMA Record: 17-1-0
- Bonfim KOs: 3
- Bonfim Submissions: 13
Thompson vs. Bonfim: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s no secret that Thompson will want to stay in the green striking zone and utilize his darting jabs, outside kicks, and overall elite striking skills at range. In contrast, while he does have power in his hands, the jiu-jitsu credentials of Bonfim will undoubtedly cause this contest to be a cliché grappler vs. striker scenario.
As Wonderboy’s power hasn’t really been a massive threat throughout his career, a young up-and-comer with plenty of chin and longevity like Bonfim isn’t going to be afraid to attack on the inside to secure takedowns. We watched Rakhmonov submit Wonderboy easily, and although I’m not making comparisons with Bonfim and the No.1-ranked welterweight in the division, I would suggest that his overall BJJ skills are on a higher level.
UFC Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing, as reviewed by Bookmakers Review, places Bonfim as the betting favorite, but with submission attempts coming in quick and fast, I don’t believe Thompson will be able to survive the full fifteen minutes without getting caught in a choke.
Let’s be real, Thompson has never been the greatest grappler, and at 42, going against Bonfim, who lands close to four takedowns per minute, he should have a clear path to finding those submissions and making this legend tap out.
UFC Pick: Bonfim Wins Inside the Distance (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
UFC Nashville Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Junior Tafa
Is Junior Tafa going to prove himself as a more worthy challenger now that he’s shifted from the heavyweight division to 205lbs? Possibly, but that doesn’t alter the fact that he’s a middling, low-level heavyweight who solely relies on knockout power to find any success.
- Tafa Pro MMA Record: 6-3-0
- Tafa KOs: 6
- Tafa Submissions: 0
Tuco Tokkos
Is Tuco Tokkos one of the worst light heavyweights in the UFC? One could argue yes, but with a newcomer to the division as his weekend opponent, who also holds a 2-3 promotional record, he might find some confidence in attacking the glaring weaknesses.
- Tokkos Pro MMA Record: 10-5
- Tokkos KOs: 6
- Tokkos Submissions: 2
Tafa vs. Tukkos: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s a disgrace that this fight sits on the UFC Nashville main card, but hey, we do have two proven sluggers who’ve avoided the judges’ scorecards more often than not, so I’m expecting some sloppy violence that will lead to a finish.
I don’t want to pick a side because neither fighter is trustworthy, but we can always bank on Tukkos and Tafa avoiding decisions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tukkos utilize some grappling here, and even finish this fight on the ground while at the same time Tafa is live to knock him out at any moment.
UFC Main Card Odds & Prediction
The oddsmakers at Bookmakers Review are showing -115 on the under, and I’m actually surprised, given that Tukkos has seen the under 1.5 rounds in 6 of his last 8, and Tafa has seen the same in four straight.
Two sluggish light heavyweights with questionable durability but also the ability to finish their food… Yeah, give me the under, all day long!
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115) [1.15 returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
